MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 9/13/22
Today we have a ten game main slate on FanDuel and an eleven game main slate on DraftKings as they are including game 2 of the TB/TOR doubleheader with both slates starting at 7:05pm EST.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
Rain shouldn’t be an in issue today with only NYY/BOS having a slight chance of a late start and the most significant wind is with CHC/NYM seeing 13-15mph out to right-center. Most games will be in the 60s or 70s with CHC/NYM looking at the warmest temps in the high 70s so that game is clearly the best hitting conditions of the slate. TB/TOR, OAK/TEX, LAD/ARI, and SD/SEA are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for KC/MIN are +17.1% while total runs for CHC/NYM are +27.4%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
The biggest unknown today is the status of Luis Robert who is dealing with hand/wrist issues but even if he’s in the lineup I’d steer clear as the risk of re-injury just isn’t worth it compared to other healthier bats. Rizzo, LeMahieu, Carpenter, Benintendi, and Marte remain on the IL for the New York teams while Jose Trevino is back from the paternity list and likely catches Cole today. Tommy La Stella landed on the IL yesterday so newly promoted Willie Calhoun could draw another start for SF and Jordan Luplow came off the IL yesterday and should be back in their starting against the lefty today.
No one stack is jumping out to me but there a lot of solid options in the Orioles, Mets, Yankees, Twins, Cardinals, Rangers, and White Sox.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with Giancarlo Stanton who is way too cheap at $2,700 especially coming off b2b games with an HR. Gleyber Torres ($2,800), Josh Donaldson ($2,400), and Oswaldo Cabrera ($2,200) are great options for a cheap full stack to add to Stanton that will really help fit in deGrom or Cole as your SP.
The Twins have some solid value options too with Kyle Garlick ($2,200) and Gio Urshela ($2,100) coming in as our top p/$ projected bats and Gary Sanchez ($2,100) is right behind them for 3rd. The White Sox also have a few value options today in Elvis Andrus ($2,900) and Yoan Moncada ($2,500) while Jose Abreu and Eloy Jimenez are a bit more expensive at $3,200 each but still squarely in play.
The Orioles and Mets are full of value too with Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle, Gunnar Henderson, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, and Daniel Vogelbach all between $2,700 and $3,300 so there should be no problem fitting in deGrom or Cole as your SP in pretty much any lineup you build.
A few other cheap bats I like today include Josh Jung ($2,100), Ryan McMahon ($2,200), Max Muncy ($2,500), Luke Voit ($2,600), and Jose Miranda ($2,800).
Looking at DraftKings I still like Torres, Donaldson, and Cabrera for Yankees value bats but Stanton at ($5,100) isn’t as much of a must play as he is on FD for me. The Twins are still full of value though with Kyle Garlick ($2,300) likely to be one of the most popular OF plays of the day while Miranda, Urshela, and Sanchez are all around $3k and solid value options.
Speaking of popular value plays Josh Jung is my favorite play on DK at minimum price likely hitting 5th or 6th today with the platoon advantage and four extra-base hits in his first five MLB games. Chad Pinder and Nick Allen are also minimum price in that game and decent value options while Ramon Laureano ($3,700) and Shea Langeliers ($3,000) have a bit more upside at still great prices for the A’s.
Lastly we have the White Sox with Elvis Andrus ($3,000) and Yoan Moncada ($3,400) coming in at great prices while Jose Abreu ($4,000) and Eloy Jimenez ($4,500) are pricier but have big upside against Kuhl today. More DK value bats I like are Ryan Mountcastle ($3,700), Gunnar Henderson ($3,400), Luke Voit ($2,900), Lane Thomas ($2,700), Yonathan Daza ($2,200), and Gavin Sheets ($2,600).
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn