MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 9/21/22
Nine games on today’s slate with a couple rain spots to monitor.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
SFG/COL is going to be cold (mid 50s) with scattered showers so there is a slim chance they call it off but for now the rain shouldn’t be heavy enough if they want to play through less than ideal conditions. MIN/KCR has a line of potentially game-ending rain holding a few miles north of KC until just after the game so at the moment the game likely plays fine but it could get ugly quick if that line moves a few miles south. There is also 10-14mph wind blowing in from left so overall this is a game I will likely just avoid today.
CLE/CHW will see 15-20mph winds out to dead center while ARI/LAD will see 6-11mph wind out to right and LAA/TEX is the only dome game today.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for CLE/CHW are +39.2% while total runs for CLE/CHW are +19%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Gabe Kapler said Thairo Estrada might need a maintenance day today after getting hit in the elbow so double check his status if you wanted to use him. Julio Rodriguez was able to return from his back soreness yesterday so hopefully he remains in there today and there’s a chance Cal Raleigh can return today from this thumb injury. Guys getting days off include Will Smith, Max Muncy, Anthony Santander, Luis Robert, Brandon Drury, Mark Mathias and Yonathan Daza.
With the cold and wet weather in Coors along with the better SPs going than the first two games of the series I likely won’t stack either of these teams in cash games but rather pick and choose certain players to fill a position but I’d still recommend SF and COL stacks in GPPs as ownership should be much lower than usual for a Coors game. The Dodgers are my favorite stack of the day at home against the lefty Bumgarner and the Yankees are my next favorite stack at home against Contreras. The Orioles, Rangers, and Mariners are other stacks I like taking shots on in GPPs.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with Mookie Betts ($3,500) as he’s at his cheapest price since April and for LAD value I’m going with Chris Taylor ($2,400). Justin Turner ($3,400) and Trayce Thompson ($2,600) are at very affordable prices too but I don’t mind paying up for Trea Turner or Freddie Freeman both at $4,100. Either way I’d get at least 2-3 LAD bats in your main build today.
For the Giants and Rockies I’d be more inclined to use a couple SF bats in my cash team as they have a slightly better matchup with Marquez compared to Webb for COL. Joc Pederson ($2,700) would be my first option followed by Mike Yastrzemski ($3,100) and LaMonte Wade ($3,000). Ryan McMahon ($3,100), Charlie Blackmon ($3,000), Randal Grichuk ($2,700), and Michael Toglia ($2,600) are my top options for COL if you want some exposure there. Overall this game’s cold weather and potential rain along with solid pitching has me weary of going too heavy on either offense when we have other great plays to choose from today.
Roansy Contreras has been solid over his last five starts but I still like a few Yankees bats in Giancarlo Stanton ($3,100), Josh Donaldson ($2,800) and Oswaldo Cabrera ($2,400) while Aaron Judge ($5,300) is going to be a very popular play as he chases the Yankees HR record. Baltimore continues to be underpriced with Cedric Mullins ($2,800) being my favorite play followed by Henderson ($3,400), Rutschman ($3,100), and Mountcastle ($2,900).
Other value bats I like today include Riley Greene ($2,700), Javier Baez ($2,800), Kerry Carpenter ($2,500), Taylor Ward ($2,900), Mitch Haniger ($2,700), Carlos Santana ($2,500), and Juan Soto ($3,100).
Looking at DraftKings the top Dodgers bats are going to cost you but Chris Taylor ($3,400) is super cheap and a great way to get exposure to them without paying up along with Justin Turner ($4,700) and Trayce Thompson ($2,900). For the Yankees Oswaldo Cabrera ($2,800) is my top play for the price while Torres and Donaldson are very affordable too.
One of my favorite value plays of the slate is Josh Jung for $2,200 and I like pairing him with Leody Taveras ($2,200) for the mini-stack with the platoon advantage against the lefty Davidson. Another cheap mini-stack I like is Carlos Santana ($2,800) and Jesse Winker ($2,900) for Seattle while Terrin Vavra ($2,000) and Kyle Stowers ($2,000) are an extreme value mini-stack to consider too.
For SF and COL I like LaMonte Wade ($3,500), David Villar ($2,500), and Michael Toglia ($3,600) for value and I will likely pay up for expensive bats in other games outside of Coors.
Some more bats I like for the price are Javier Baez ($3,700), Kerry Carpenter ($2,600), Gunnar Henderson ($3,900), Rodolfo Castro ($2,500), Mike Ford ($2,000), and Corbin Carroll ($3,100).
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn