MLB Grind Down: Friday, April 25th - Page 2
Cincinnati at Atlanta
| Cincinnati | Atlanta | ||||||||
| Homer Bailey | Vegas Moneyline | Ervin Santana | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | ATL (-150) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.284 | 0.787 | 0.352 | 21.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.241 | 0.659 | 0.296 | 18.5% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.208 | 0.585 | 0.267 | 25.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.223 | 0.633 | 0.283 | 21.3% |
| Batter Splits | CIN BvP  | CIN vs R | Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Homer Bailey – Bailey is off to a rocky start this season. In his first 4 starts, Bailey has an ERA of 5.75 and has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 3 of those 4 starts. Tonight he faces a Braves’ lineup that has nice power against RH pitching. Bailey is a sizable underdog (+140) and should only be targeted in GPP’s. Rating = 5
- Ervin Santana – Santana has fit in really well with the Braves thus far. In his first 3 starts, he has an ERA of 0.86 and has only allowed 2 earned runs while striking out 24 batters over 21 innings of work. This Reds lineup has been below average offensively this season in terms of runs scored and Santana actually makes a pretty nice play here if his price hasn’t gone up too much. Rating = 7
Batter Grind Down
Cincinnati
- Joey Votto – Santana held LH and RH batters to lower than a .300 wOBA last season, but Votto crushes RH pitching and his price across the industry is depressed. Votto is batting .348 against righties this season.
- Additional Plays: None
Atlanta
- Jason Heyward – Last season Bailey gave up a .352 wOBA and a .787 OPS to LH batters. Heyward is off to a slow start this season, but he has great power against RH pitching and now is the perfect time to buy low on him. Target him in all leagues tonight.
- Additional Plays: Freddie Freeman
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee
| Chicago Cubs | Milwaukee | ||||||||
| Carlos Villanueva | Vegas Moneyline | Matt Garza | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | MIL (-180) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.279 | 0.764 | 0.342 | 19.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.272 | 0.732 | 0.327 | 20.8% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.261 | 0.740 | 0.330 | 19.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.235 | 0.669 | 0.302 | 19.8% |
| Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Carlos Villanueva – Villanueva has been rocked in this last two starts. He’s given up a combined 15 earned runs in his last two outings and no that is not a mis-print. He should be avoided in all leagues, especially with the fact that this game will be played in the hitter-friendly Miller Park. Rating = 1
- Matt Garza – Not only is Matt Garza facing his former team, but that team just so happens to be the Cubs whose offense has been nowhere to be found this season. The Cubs have scored the 5th fewest runs of any team and Garza has one of the highest K-rates in baseball. I have Garza listed as my #2 pitcher tonight, right below Stephen Strasburg. Rating = 9
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
- You could make a case for Anthony Rizzo here, but he is a tournament play at best. The rest of the Cubs can be ignored against Garza tonight.
- Additional Plays: None
Milwaukee
- Ryan Braun – The Brewers are in a terrific spot tonight as Villanueva has been straight awful so far this season. Not only that, but Villanueva wasn’t much better last season as he gave up a .330+ wOBA to both LH and RH batters. Braun will crank his 7th HR of the season tonight. Book it.
- Additional Plays: Aramis Ramirez, Jonathan Lucroy, Jean Segura, Carlos Gomez, Khris Davis
Detroit at Minnesota
| Detroit | Minnesota | ||||||||
| Rick Porcello | Vegas Moneyline | Kevin Correia | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | DET (-130) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.296 | 0.795 | 0.355 | 15.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.287 | 0.772 | 0.340 | 12.5% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.239 | 0.594 | 0.265 | 23.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.306 | 0.803 | 0.353 | 12.6% |
| Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Rick Porcello – Porcello has gotten better and better in each of his last 3 seasons and that trend appears to be continuing this season. Through his first 3 starts, he has a 3.15 ERA and an even more impressive 1.05 WHIP. Porcello strikes out more people than most people realize as he had a K/9 of 7.2 last season. The only issue here is that he is running into this Twins’ lineup at the wrong time. The Twins have scored the 3rd most runs of any team this season. I see him as a GPP play, but a little too risky for cash games. Rating = 6
- Kevin Correia – Correia has given up more earned runs that he has strikeouts. That’s not a recipe that you want to try for DFS success. He is an easy avoid tonight against the Tigers. Rating = 2
Batter Grind Down
Detroit
- Miguel Cabrera – Correia gave up a .340+ wOBA to both LH and RH batters last season so batters from both sides of the plate are in play tonight. Miggy is obviously the top play here. His price is slowly coming up across the industry, but I still think he is the top 1B play tonight.
- Additional Plays: Victor Martinez, Ian Kinsler, Austin Jackson
Minnesota
- Joe Mauer – Porcello’s biggest weakness is pitching to batters from the left side of the plate. Last season he gave up a .355 wOBA to LH batters and Mauer will fly under the radar tonight with all of the other great options at 1B.
- Additional Plays: Jason Kubel, Brian Dozier
Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox
| Tampa Bay | Chicago White Sox | ||||||||
| Chris Archer | Vegas Moneyline | Erik Johnson | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TBR (-130) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.251 | 0.731 | 0.327 | 21.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.346 | 1.012 | 0.447 | 11.2% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.203 | 0.503 | 0.237 | 16.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.204 | 0.508 | 0.230 | 21.0% |
| Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs R | Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CHW vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Chris Archer – Archer has a 3.65 ERA this season, but really struggled away from Tropicana Field. Last season he posted an ERA over 5.00 in starts on the road. Archer also struggles against LH batters and the White Sox lineup has quite a few lefties. Archer makes a nice tournament play, but there are better options for cash games. Rating = 5
- Erik Johnson – Johnson has a 5.32 ERA over his first 4 starts of the season with a 1.54 WHIP. The run total of this game is set at 8.5 runs and Johnson is a small underdog. He has limited upside and is a below average fantasy option tonight. Rating = 3
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
- Matt Joyce – Johnson has held RH batters to a .229 batting average this season, but is giving up a .343 average and a 1.08 OPS to LH batters. Matt Joyce has always hit RH pitching well and should be targeted in all leagues. He is a great value play in the OF.
- Additional Plays: James Loney, David DeJesus
Chicago White Sox
- Adam Dunn – As mentioned above, Archer struggles against LH batters. He gave up a .731 OPS to lefties last season and Dunn is quietly having a very nice season. His batting average is up and his strikeouts are down. Dunn has 4 HR’s and RH pitching already this season and makes a terrific upside play in a GPP.
- Additional Plays: Adam Eaton, Alejandro De Aza
Oakland at Houston
| Oakland | Houston | ||||||||
| Jesse Chavez | Vegas Moneyline | Brad Peacock | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | OAK (-180) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.236 | 0.608 | 0.289 | 23.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.279 | 0.875 | 0.388 | 17.5% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.200 | 0.552 | 0.251 | 24.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.208 | 0.636 | 0.286 | 26.1% |
| Batter Splits | OAK BvP | OAK vs R | Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jesse Chavez – Chavez is a high strikeout pitcher that faces a strikeout happy Astros’ lineup. That seems like a good combination to me. Chavez has a 1.38 ERA on the season with a K/9 of 9.7. He is facing the Astros who have already struck out 206 times this season which is the 4th most in the majors. Chavez should have similar success to that of Kazmir last night. Rating = 9
- Brad Peacock – Peacock is a young RH pitcher that has the ability to strike a lot of batters out. His biggest issue is his command. He has already given up 11 walks this season and this A’s team will make you pay for any little mistakes, just ask Oberholtzer. I may throw him in one of my GPP lineups, but will be avoiding him for the most part. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
Oakland
- Brandon Moss – Moss is one of my favorite plays tonight. Peacock gave up an OPS of .875 to LH batters last season and likewise, Moss hit RH pitching for an OPS of .904. I’m predicting a multi-hit game for Moss with a few RBI’s to boot.
- Additional Plays: Coco Crisp, John Jaso, Jed Lowrie
Houston
- The Astros are nothing more than deep GPP plays tonight. Chavez will likely strike out a lot of batters here and he has held LH and RH batters to a wOBA under .300 since the start of last season.
- Additional Plays: None