MLB Grind Down: Friday, April 8th - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-04-08 21:59:03

Boston at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Boston					Toronto
			Joe Kelly					Marcus Stroman
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -162					8.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.305	5	19.8%	7.4%	SP vs. Left	0.235	1	17.8%	6.9%
SP vs. Right	0.365	10	17.7%	9.3%	SP vs. Right	0.280	1	16.7%	3.3%
Batter Splits					Batter Splits
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Joe Kelly
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				Salary:$7,800		Salary:$6,200
				FPPG:25.5		FPPG:0.0
				Pitcher Rating:
Statistics	SIERA	K%	BB%	LD%	GB%	O-wOBA	O-K%
2015	4.23	18.8%	8.4%	25.1%	45.6%	1	5

Kelly was originally slated to pitch against the Indians yesterday, but the game was rained out. He will make his season debut today against an even better offense in the Blue Jays. Kelly is a mediocre pitcher by most metrics. He finished the 2015 season with a 4.23 SIERA and a strikeout rate of only 18.8%. Pitchers typically have a tough time in the American League East, especially when they have to head to Toronto. The Rogers Centre is basically the American League’s version of Coors Field. We should stay far away from Kelly – both Joe and R.

Marcus Stroman
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				Salary:$8,100		Salary:$9,100
				FPPG:42.0		FPPG:21.8
				Pitcher Rating:
Statistics	SIERA	K%	BB%	LD%	GB%	O-wOBA	O-K%
2015	3.28	17.5%	5.8%	17.9%	64.1%	8	3

Stroman pitched well in his season debut, striking out five batters in eight quality innings of work. He did what he always does, he attacked the strike zone and didn’t allow a ton of great contact. Stroman may not have an elite strikeout rate, but he produces one of the highest ground ball rates of any pitcher in baseball, which allows him to have success in almost any ballpark. I generally try to avoid targeting pitchers in the Rogers Centre though, and with a matchup against the Red Sox, Stroman is more of a GPP play tonight.

Boston

The Red Sox travel to Toronto to take on the Blue Jays in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. While I love to target players in this ballpark, Boston’s matchup against Marcus Stroman is less than appealing. He doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact and he held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA last season. The Red Sox bats are GPP targets at best.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

David Ortiz
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$3,900		Salary:$4,400
			Position:1B		Position:1B
			FPPG:24.0		FPPG:18.5
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	614	0.379	0.280	138	37	15.5%	12.5%
vs.RH Pitching	430	0.413	0.320	161	29	13.0%	15.1%

Mookie Betts
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$4,100		Salary:$4,900
			Position:OF		Position:OF
			FPPG:13.5		FPPG:10.5
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	654	0.351	0.188	119	18	12.5%	7.0%
vs.RH Pitching	493	0.348	0.192	117	13	13.6%	7.1%

Toronto

The Blue Jays are at the top of the list of potential offenses to target tonight. They have the third highest team total on the board, as they square off against Joe Kelly at home. Toronto was one of the best offenses in baseball last season, especially at home. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here.

Elite Plays

Edwin Encarnacion
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$4,100		Salary:$4,700
			Position:1B		Position:1B
			FPPG:8.3		FPPG:6.8
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	624	0.392	0.280	150	39	15.7%	12.3%
vs.RH Pitching	506	0.399	0.294	155	33	14.4%	12.3%

Josh Donaldson
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$5,000		Salary:$4,800
			Position:3B		Position:3B
			FPPG:14.3		FPPG:11.0
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	711	0.398	0.271	154	41	18.7%	10.3%
vs.RH Pitching	573	0.390	0.256	149	32	19.2%	9.6%

Kevin Pillar
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,900		Salary:$3,700
			Position:OF		Position:OF
			FPPG:6.0		FPPG:5.3
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	628	0.310	0.121	93	12	13.5%	4.5%
vs.RH Pitching	472	0.313	0.133	96	10	12.7%	4.2%

Secondary Plays

Jose Bautista
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$4,500		Salary:$4,800
			Position:OF		Position:OF
			FPPG:10.5		FPPG:8.3
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	666	0.389	0.285	148	40	15.9%	16.5%
vs.RH Pitching	535	0.395	0.301	152	35	16.3%	15.7%

Troy Tulowitzki
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$3,400		Salary:$4,100
			Position:SS		Position:SS
			FPPG:8.3		FPPG:6.3
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	534	0.335	0.160	100	17	21.3%	7.1%
vs.RH Pitching	424	0.319	0.153	89	13	21.0%	7.3%

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Pittsburgh					Cincinnati
			Francisco Liriano					Alfredo Simon
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT -160					7.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.269	3	25.0%	8.9%	SP vs. Left	0.369	16	12.0%	8.8%
SP vs. Right	0.285	12	26.9%	9.1%	SP vs. Right	0.320	8	17.4%	7.5%
Batter Splits					Batter Splits
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Francisco Liriano
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				Salary:$9,900		Salary:$10,300
				FPPG:60.0		FPPG:32.7
				Pitcher Rating:
Statistics	SIERA	K%	BB%	LD%	GB%	O-wOBA	O-K%
2015	3.38	26.5%	9.1%	22.4%	51.2%	17	14

If you read the first Grind Down of the season, I said that Liriano is a pitcher with a lot of upside, but one that throws a lot of balls. He produces his strikeouts by making hitters chase out of the zone, which leads to a lot of walks against patient teams. I typically prefer to target Liriano when he is pitching at home in PNC Park, but he is always on my radar for tournaments, regardless of where he is pitching. His pitch count is usually pretty high (thanks to throwing so many balls), but Liriano has an elite strikeout rate. I like, but don’t love him tonight against the Reds.

Alfredo Simon
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				Salary:$7,600		Salary:$5,800
				FPPG:24.3		FPPG:0.0
				Pitcher Rating:
Statistics	SIERA	K%	BB%	LD%	GB%	O-wOBA	O-K%
2015	4.88	14.3%	8.3%	21.7%	43.6%	14	17

Simon is another one of those pitchers that doesn’t fit the mold of a daily fantasy baseball target. In 2015, he finished the season with a 4.88 SIERA and a low strikeout rate of 14.3%. His K/BB ratio is under 2.0, which really limits his upside. He’s not a pitcher that I am going to be targeting much, if at all, this season. We need guaranteed production from our pitcher and Simon just doesn’t offer that.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are sizable favorites tonight against Alfredo Simon and the Reds. I always like targeting hitters against Simon, because he has a low strikeout rate and he isn’t particularly effective against hitters from either side of the plate – .320+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters last season.

Elite Plays

Andrew McCutchen
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$4,700		Salary:$5,000
			Position:OF		Position:OF
			FPPG:12.0		FPPG:9.7
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	685	0.380	0.196	146	23	19.4%	14.3%
vs.RH Pitching	546	0.376	0.200	143	18	19.8%	15.2%

Secondary Plays

Starling Marte
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$3,300		Salary:$4,600
			Position:OF		Position:OF
			FPPG:5.0		FPPG:4.0
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	633	0.337	0.157	117	19	19.4%	4.3%
vs.RH Pitching	497	0.344	0.152	122	13	19.3%	4.6%

John Jaso
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,600		Salary:$3,300
			Position:1B		Position:OF
			FPPG:8.0		FPPG:6.7
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	216	0.364	0.173	136	5	18.1%	13.0%
vs.RH Pitching	197	0.358	0.180	132	5	17.8%	11.2%

Cincinnati

The Reds draw one of the worst matchups on the board tonight. Francisco Liriano is tough on both left and right-handed hitters and the Reds come into this game with the third lowest team total on the board. There are better matchups to exploit.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

St. Louis at Atlanta – 7:35 PM ET

St. Louis					Atlanta
			Jaime Garcia					Matt Wisler
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL -150					7.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.282	2	20.4%	5.3%	SP vs. Left	0.419	10	8.9%	12.7%
SP vs. Right	0.248	4	18.6%	6.1%	SP vs. Right	0.284	6	21.2%	4.2%
Batter Splits					Batter Splits
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jaime Garcia
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				Salary:$8,900		Salary:$9,400
				FPPG:34.8		FPPG:0.0
				Pitcher Rating:
Statistics	SIERA	K%	BB%	LD%	GB%	O-wOBA	O-K%
2015	3.39	19.0%	5.9%	16.5%	61.2%	29	11

Garcia is coming off of an impressive 2015 campaign where he posted a 3.39 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 19.0%. I always like targeting pitchers on the Cardinals, because they know how to get the best out of their staff and they are typically playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Garcia opens his season as a -150 favorite against the Braves in Atlanta. While their roster isn’t exactly the same as a year ago, Atlanta had the second worst wOBA against southpaws. Garcia is a safe cash game option with some decent upside as well.

Matt Wisler
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				Salary:$5,200		Salary:$7,400
				FPPG:22.3		FPPG:0.0
				Pitcher Rating:
Statistics	SIERA	K%	BB%	LD%	GB%	O-wOBA	O-K%
2015	4.98	15.1%	8.4%	23.2%	33.6%	12	11

Wisler didn’t have the best rookie season, posting a 4.98 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 15.1% in 19 starts. He walked way too many batters and he produced a very low ground ball rate. That’s not always the death nail for a pitcher in DFS, but the low strikeout rate is just icing on the unappetizing cake. Wisler opens the season as a large underdog against the Cardinals, who are tough on right-handed pitchers. He can be avoided in all league formats tonight.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals are sizable favorites tonight against the hittable Matt Wisler. While the sample size on Wisler is still small, he did allow a .419 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season. The Cardinals are a sneaky offense to target, as I expect them to get overlooked in this pitcher’s park.

Elite Plays

Matt Carpenter
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$3,300		Salary:$4,200
			Position:3B		Position:3B
			FPPG:5.0		FPPG:3.7
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	665	0.372	0.233	139	28	22.7%	12.2%
vs.RH Pitching	454	0.394	0.249	154	20	21.4%	12.8%

Secondary Plays

Brandon Moss
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,600		Salary:$3,300
			Position:1B		Position:1B/OF
			FPPG:4.0		FPPG:3.0
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	526	0.308	0.181	94	19	28.1%	9.3%
vs.RH Pitching	358	0.306	0.194	93	15	29.6%	9.2%

Atlanta

The Braves have one of the worst offenses in baseball and a matchup against an above-average pitcher in a bad park for offensive production isn’t going to help. In 2015, Jaime Garcia held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Houston at Milwaukee – 8:10 PM ET

Houston					Milwaukee
			Scott Feldman					Chase Anderson
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU -130					9.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.287	4	13.8%	5.9%	SP vs. Left	0.325	7	19.5%	8.4%
SP vs. Right	0.354	9	13.2%	6.1%	SP vs. Right	0.325	11	15.5%	4.4%
Batter Splits					Batter Splits
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Scott Feldman
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				Salary:$7,500		Salary:$6,400
				FPPG:23.7		FPPG:0.0
				Pitcher Rating:
Statistics	SIERA	K%	BB%	LD%	GB%	O-wOBA	O-K%
2015	4.44	13.5%	6.0%	23.6%	48.9%	21	23

Feldman is another pitcher that is ranked near the bottom of the league in strikeouts. In 2015, he finished the season with a 4.44 SIERA and a low strikeout rate of 13.5%. When pitchers have such low strikeout potential, it takes a nearly perfect outing for them to end up reaching value. That’s something that we don’t want to have to count on from Feldman. Even though the Brewers have failed to get anything going offensively this season, there isn’t enough upside for Feldman to deserve consideration.

Chase Anderson
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				Salary:$5,400		Salary:$7,000
				FPPG:23.0		FPPG:0.0
				Pitcher Rating:
Statistics	SIERA	K%	BB%	LD%	GB%	O-wOBA	O-K%
2015	4.26	17.3%	6.3%	23.6%	42.0%	4	29

Anderson made 27 starts for the Diamondbacks in his rookie season. He finished with a 4.26 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 17.3%. He certainly wasn’t awful, but he is a 28-year old pitcher that has never really been able to put it all together. He draws an awful matchup right out of the gates, as the Astros are going to wreak havoc on opposing pitchers this season. Of the 28 teams in action tonight, the Astros have the fourth highest team total on the board.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros don’t seem to be getting a lot of attention from the touts across the industry today, even though they have the second highest team total on the board and are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Chase Anderson is a fly ball pitcher, which could spell trouble for him against this potent Astros’ offense.

Elite Plays

Carlos Correa
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$5,000		Salary:$4,900
			Position:SS		Position:SS
			FPPG:39.0		FPPG:31.0
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	432	0.365	0.233	133	22	18.1%	9.3%
vs.RH Pitching	292	0.359	0.209	128	13	19.5%	8.9%

Jose Altuve
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$3,800		Salary:$4,800
			Position:2B		Position:2B
			FPPG:10.0		FPPG:11.5
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	689	0.347	0.146	120	15	9.7%	4.8%
vs.RH Pitching	479	0.319	0.136	101	10	8.8%	3.1%

Colby Rasmus
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$3,000		Salary:$3,400
			Position:OF		Position:OF
			FPPG:9.0		FPPG:7.0
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	485	0.339	0.236	115	25	31.8%	9.7%
vs.RH Pitching	345	0.329	0.243	107	18	32.5%	7.8%

Secondary Plays

George Springer
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$3,700		Salary:$5,000
			Position:OF		Position:OF
			FPPG:16.5		FPPG:12.5
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	451	0.360	0.183	129	16	24.2%	11.1%
vs.RH Pitching	291	0.336	0.154	113	8	26.5%	10.3%

Luis Valbuena
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,300		Salary:$3,600
			Position:3B		Position:1B/3B
			FPPG:9.0		FPPG:6.0
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	493	0.325	0.214	105	25	21.5%	10.1%
vs.RH Pitching	361	0.348	0.234	121	20	21.1%	9.7%

Milwaukee

The Brewers draw an interesting matchup tonight against Scott Feldman. Milwaukee has struggled offensively to start the season, but may be able to get it going tonight at home. Feldman has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any starter in baseball.

Elite Plays

Scooter Gennett
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,800		Salary:$3,200
			Position:2B		Position:2B
			FPPG:13.0		FPPG:10.3
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	391	0.289	0.117	77	6	17.4%	3.1%
vs.RH Pitching	355	0.305	0.124	87	6	16.3%	3.4%

Secondary Plays

Jonathan Lucroy
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$3,000		Salary:$3,800
			Position:C		Position:C
			FPPG:5.0		FPPG:4.3
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	415	0.313	0.127	93	7	15.4%	8.7%
vs.RH Pitching	311	0.325	0.141	101	6	14.8%	9.3%

Minnesota at Kansas City – 8:15 PM ET

Minnesota					Kansas City
			Ervin Santana					Yordano Ventura
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			KC -150					7.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.346	7	14.4%	9.8%	SP vs. Left	0.319	9	24.6%	8.6%
SP vs. Right	0.286	5	21.7%	5.9%	SP vs. Right	0.295	5	20.2%	8.2%
Batter Splits					Batter Splits
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Ervin Santana
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				Salary:$6,900		Salary:$7,800
				FPPG:15.0		FPPG:8.1
				Pitcher Rating:
Statistics	SIERA	K%	BB%	LD%	GB%	O-wOBA	O-K%
2015	4.43	17.9%	7.9%	21.5%	40.9%	8	1

Santana’s first start of the season was cut short – the same game that Chris Tillman pitched in. He pitched two scoreless innings against the Orioles, but he did give up two hits and two walks. Santana had some monster fantasy outings last season, but was overall a below-average pitcher. He finished with a 4.43 SIERA and a strikeout rate of only 17.9%. Targeting pitchers against the Royals is something that I never do and I’m not going to start tonight with Santana. Kansas City had by far the fewest strikeouts of any team in baseball last season.

Yordano Ventura
				FanDuel:		DraftKings:
				Salary:$8,700		Salary:$9,200
				FPPG:31.9		FPPG:0.0
				Pitcher Rating:
Statistics	SIERA	K%	BB%	LD%	GB%	O-wOBA	O-K%
2015	3.69	22.5%	8.4%	20.6%	52.2%	26	22

Ventura doesn’t hold a special place in my heart. When I qualified for the King of Boston last year on DraftKings, I decided to roll out Ventura in what was a decent matchup at home. He didn’t make it out of the third inning. We can’t have biases in DFS though, because they lead us to poor decision making. Ventura ended up pitching well overall in 2015, finishing with a 3.69 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 22.5%. If he can improve his command, he could have a great season. He has a big ballpark and a great defense at his back. With a matchup against the Twins at home, Ventura is one of the best dollar-for-dollar plays at pitcher tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins draw a tough matchup tonight against Yordano Ventura in one of the best pitcher’s parks in all of baseball. The Twins have the second lowest team total on the board. They can be avoided in all league formats.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Kansas City

The Royals are always a viable offense when given a favorable matchup. They love to put the ball in play, as they strikeout fewer than any team in baseball. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against Ervin Santana, who allowed a .346 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Eric Hosmer
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$3,300		Salary:$4,200
			Position:1B		Position:1B
			FPPG:7.5		FPPG:6.5
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	667	0.355	0.162	125	18	16.2%	9.1%
vs.RH Pitching	401	0.378	0.192	141	14	15.7%	10.5%

Mike Moustakas
			FanDuel:		DraftKings:
			Salary:$2,800		Salary:$3,800
			Position:3B		Position:3B
			FPPG:1.5		FPPG:1.0
Statistics	PA	wOBA	ISO	wRC+	HR	K%	BB%
Overall (2015)	614	0.353	0.186	124	22	12.4%	7.0%
vs.RH Pitching	383	0.353	0.175	123	12	13.8%	8.1%

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