MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 8th Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-08-08 19:44:49

Miami at Cincinnati

Miami					Cincinnati
Nathan Eovaldi		Vegas Moneyline			Mike Leake		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CIN (-130)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.293	0.803	0.348	14.30%	SP vs. Left	0.299	0.837	0.367	14.40%
SP vs. Right	0.209	0.572	0.255	19.50%	SP vs. Right	0.229	0.630	0.279	21.60%
Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R		Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Nathan Eovaldi – Eovaldi was averaging close to a strikeout per inning over the first month of the season, but that has dropped to around 5.0 per 9 innings since the start of June. It’s always a red flag for me when a pitcher’s strikeouts take a big dip. While he does face a depleted Reds offense, the Reds have been making it tough on opposing pitchers in their last few games. With a full slate, you can find better starting pitching options. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5800 FD, $11950 DD, $5700 DK, $53100 FF, $NA SS, $11950 FTD

• Mike Leake – Leake should fly under the radar tonight thanks to his average K/9 of 7.0, but he’s one of my favorite plays in his price range. The Marlins are one of the worst road hitting teams in baseball and strike out at a 25% clip away from Marlins Park. Leake has held RH hitters to a .267 wOBA this season so he should be able to keep most of this Marlins offense in check. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $8300 FD, $13850 DD, $7700 DK, $97400 FF, $ SS, $13850 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Christian Yelich – While Leake has been very efficient against batters from the right side of the plate, he has given up a .348 wOBA to LH hitters this season. Yelich is a great all-around player and is always a nice option against RH pitching.

Additional Plays: Garrett Jones

Cincinnati

Jay Bruce – Bruce has been hitting well in the 2 hole for the Reds. He has 8 hits over his last 5 games and draws a favorable matchup against Eovaldi who has given up a .348 wOBA to LH hitters this season.

Additional Plays: Billy Hamilton

Washington at Atlanta

Washington					Atlanta
Stephen Strasburg		Vegas Moneyline			Ervin Santana		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		WAS (-118)			RIGHT		6.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.236	0.635	0.281	24.30%	SP vs. Left	0.290	0.796	0.346	18.20%
SP vs. Right	0.268	0.730	0.320	31.10%	SP vs. Right	0.208	0.577	0.261	26.60%
Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs R		Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Stephen Strasburg – I’ve been burned by Strasburg enough times on the road. While he is one of the best pitchers in baseball when he is pitching at Nationals Park, he owns a 4.68 road ERA which is a full 2 runs higher than his ERA at home. He does have a nice matchup against the Braves who are ranked 27th in wOBA vs. RH pitching, but his troublesome track record on the road makes me want to avoid him in cash games. Rating = 7

Salaries: $9700 FD, $19900 DD, $9900 DK, $97400 FF, $NA SS, $19000 FTD

• Ervin Santana – Santana is enjoying a terrific season. He has a 3.59 ERA (3.31 xFIP) with a K/9 of 8.1. He’s pitched well at home and has managed to hold RH hitters to a .261 wOBA this season. If he can pitch around Span, LaRoche, and Harper, he should have another quality outing tonight. He’ll likely fly under the radar as well with Strasburg on the mound for the Nationals. Rating = 7

Salaries: $8900 FD, $18050 DD, $9000 DK, $107700 FF, $ SS, $16500 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Adam LaRoche – LaRoche had a huge series against the Mets. He had 6 hits over the 3-game series with 2 HR’s and 3 doubles. Tonight he faces Santana who has given up a .346 wOBA to LH hitters.

Additional Plays: Denard Span

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman – Freeman has been great against RH pitching, Strasburg has struggled on the road, and Freeman is 9/20 with 2 HR’s off of Strasburg in his career. That’s not a terrible recipe for Freeman tonight.

Additional Plays: None

San Francisco at Kansas City

San Francisco					Kansas City
Madison Bumgarner		Vegas Moneyline			Jason Vargas		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		SFG (-120)			LEFT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.235	0.598	0.262	32.10%	SP vs. Left	0.280	0.698	0.312	14.30%
SP vs. Right	0.246	0.685	0.303	22.00%	SP vs. Right	0.254	0.710	0.313	16.80%
Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SFG vs L		Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KCR vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Madison Bumgarner – Bumgarner is one of the best aces on the mound tonight, yet I think he will go largely overlooked. The Royals are coming off of a big series against the D-Backs and most people tend to avoid taking pitchers against the Royals because they don’t strike out often. That said, the Royals are ranked 24th in wOBA vs. LH pitching this season and Bumgarner has been terrific on the road with a 1.58 ERA. He’s pitching in Kaufmann Stadium which is a tough place to hit HR’s. I will have a good amount of exposure to Bumgarner tonight. Rating = 9

Salaries: $9300 FD, $19700 DD, $9700 DK, $126900 FF, $NA SS, $19050 FTD

• Jason Vargas – In his first start off of the DL, Vargas gave up 7 earned runs over 4 and 1/3 innings against the A’s in Oakland. While that was a tough matchup, I like to target pitchers that are in good form and it may take Vargas another start or two to shake off the rust. I’ll be avoiding him tonight against the Giants. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6200 FD, $11850 DD, $7000 DK, $67400 FF, $ SS, $11850 FTD

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Buster Posey – Posey is batting .320 with a .383 wOBA against LH pitching. He’s always one of the better hitters against southpaws and he’s facing Varags who was lit up in his last start.

Additional Plays: Hunter Pence

Kansas City

Salvador Perez and Billy Butler both hit LH pitching well, but I will not be using either against Bumgarner tonight.

LA Dodgers at Milwaukee

LA Dodgers					Milwaukee
Roberto Hernandez		Vegas Moneyline			Kyle Lohse		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		MIL (-135)			RIGHT		8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.209	0.654	0.299	8.50%	SP vs. Left	0.238	0.670	0.296	14.80%
SP vs. Right	0.249	0.741	0.322	18.80%	SP vs. Right	0.245	0.665	0.294	19.70%
Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LAD vs R		Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Roberto Hernandez – Hernandez was traded to the Dodgers yesterday and will make his debut tonight against the Brewers in Miller Park. Hernandez has pitched better than most give him credit for, but that still doesn’t mean that he is a viable fantasy option. He’s walking nearly as many batters (4.1 per 9) as he is striking them out (5.6 per 9). That’s a big red flag for me. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5700 FD, $11600 DD, $NA DK, $80000 FF, $NA SS, $13450 FTD

• Kyle Lohse – Lohse is coming off of a terrible outing against the Cardinals. He gave up 9 runs (7 earned) in only 4 innings of work. He had only given up a combined 4 runs in his previous 3 starts. I would typically look for a bounce back game in these situations, but I don’t like his matchup against the Dodgers who are ranked 6th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7000 FD, $15400 DD, $8100 DK, $92200 FF, $ SS, $15400 FTD

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Adrian Gonzalez – Gonzalez should see a decent ballpark boost tonight going from Dodger Stadium to Miller Park. He also has a good track record against Lohse as he is 8/24 with 5 XBH’s off of him in his career.

Additional Plays: Dee Gordon

Milwaukee

Aramis Ramirez – Ramirez is one of the hottest hitters in baseball. In his last 10 games, he is 17/37 with 4 XBH’s and 7 RBI’s. He draws a terrific matchup against an erratic Roberto Fausto Hernandez.

Additional Plays: Carlos Gomez, Gerardo Parra, Jonathan Lucroy

Texas at Houston

Texas					Houston
Miles Mikolas		Vegas Moneyline			Brett Oberholtzer		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		HOU (-110)			LEFT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.250	0.702	0.306	12.60%	SP vs. Left	0.259	0.660	0.292	21.60%
SP vs. Right	0.339	0.818	0.364	17.20%	SP vs. Right	0.292	0.775	0.338	13.00%
Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs L		Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Miles Mikolas – Mikolas is an interesting tournament play tonight. He’s had 2 quality outings in his last 3 and they came against some tough opponents in the Yankees and the Indians. Tonight he faces a strikeout happy Astros offense that is ranked 21st in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. He is a bit too risky for cash games, but deserves a look as a GPP play. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5200 FD, $8950 DD, $5400 DK, $52000 FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Brett Oberholtzer – Oberholtzer has pitched admirably. He’s only given up more than 2 earned runs 2 times in his last 8 starts. He’s still not a great fantasy option though as he’s only averaging 5.6 K’s per 9 innings. The Rangers offense may not be what it was last season, but they have been good against LH pitching as they are ranked 7th in wOBA vs. LH pitching. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6000 FD, $10250 DD, $5800 DK, $83500 FF, $ SS, $10250 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Alex Rios – Oberholtzer has given up a .338 wOBA to RH hitters this season and Rios is a great play tonight, especially on FD where he is underpriced. Rios is batting .358 with a .417 wOBA against southpaws this season.

Additional Plays: Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus

Houston

Chris Carter – Carter is coming off of a huge fantasy performance last night. He hit 2 HR’s off of Sean O’Sullivan. Tonight he faces the rookie Mikolas who has given up a .364 wOBA to RH hitters this season.

Additional Plays: Jose Altuve

MLB Grind Down Page 2 – Page 3