MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 18th

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2014-07-18 18:04:11

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Milwaukee at Washington

Milwaukee					Washington
Kyle Lohse		Vegas Moneyline			Stephen Strasburg		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		WAS (-155)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.245	0.681	0.304	16.6%	SP vs. Left	0.223	0.618	0.283	23.0%
SP vs. Right	0.257	0.662	0.295	16.2%	SP vs. Right	0.232	0.613	0.284	30.2%
Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R		Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Kyle Lohse – I bet we all cannot wait for tonight as the 5 day lay off has been a relaxing break, but extremely boring for us. We get a full night of baseball beginning with the Brewers and Nats. Lohse brings his 3.26 ERA into this matchup against Strasburg and the Nationals. Lohse has a 9-4 record as well as a very good 1.09 WHIP on the year. He is a heavy underdog, but this could be a low scoring affair. The win may be tough to get, but Lohse is in play if cheap. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7200 FD, $NA DS, $15050 DD, $8500 DK, $NA FF, $22500 SS, $NA FTD

• Stephen Strasburg – Strasburg gets to take on the big Brewers offense at home where he has thrived this year. Strasburg has a 2.38 ERA at Nationals Park. He is 6-1 in 11 starts and has held opponents to a .236 BAA. The Brewers are a tough matchup as they have the 8th highest team wOBA against RH pitching (.324). That aside, Strasburg always has one of the highest cielings of any starting pitcher. He has a 10.73 K/9 and is a big favorite. Strasburg is one a top play tonight. Rating = 9

Salaries: $9700 FD, $ DS, $19050 DD, $10500 DK, $ FF, $28700 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Even though they have some big bats in the lineup that can hit RH pitching, they are overpriced for this matchup against Strasburg. I will be avoiding the Brewers bats.

Washington

Jayson Werth – Lohse’s numbers against RH and LH batters are pretty similar this year. Werth had been raking right before the All-Star break with 4 home runs in his last 5 games. He has gone 9/27 with 3 bombs off of Lohse in his career.

Additional Plays: Bryce Harper Adam LaRoche

Colorado at Pittsburgh

Colorado					Pittsburgh
Jorge De La Rosa		Vegas Moneyline			Francisco Liriano		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		PIT (-145)			LEFT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.184	0.490	0.226	24.3%	SP vs. Left	0.188	0.503	0.230	26.5%
SP vs. Right	0.279	0.771	0.350	14.1%	SP vs. Right	0.243	0.683	0.309	23.8%
Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs L		Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jorge De La Rosa – De La Rosa has been bad on the year and has really struggled away from Coors. In 9 away starts, he has a 5.87 ERA. Overall, he has a 1.31 WHIP and his low 6.40 K/9 depresses any fantasy value he would have. De La Rosa is an easy avoid tonight. Rating = 3

Salaries: $6300 FD, $NA DS, $11150 DD, $5500 DK, $NA FF, $16400 SS, $NA FTD

• Francisco Liriano – Although Liriano has not imploded in his last few starts, he has also not been able to pitch past the 5th inning in any of his last 6 starts. He has an overall 4.72 ERA on the year and 1.49 WHIP. He is a big favorite in a matchup that has a 7’ total, but starting him in anything, but a long shot GPP, is very risky. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6700 FD, $ DS, $11850 DD, $7800 DK, $ FF, $19900 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Troy Tulowitzki – It is not Coors, but Tulo has a R/L matchup tonight against Liriano. We have all heard the numbers, but it has been a few days now so here we go. Against lefties, Tulo has a wOBA of .559 on the year, is hitting .403, has a SLG of .844 and an OPS of 1.354. He is the top SS on the night.

Additional Plays: Wilin Rosario Drew Stubbs Charlie Blackmon

Pittsburgh

Andrew McCutchen – The two studs in this game should make very nice plays. McCutchen has been raking all season long and will look to continue it in the second half of the season. In the 7 games prior to the break he was 9/23 with 7 extra base hits, including 4 home runs. He is also crushing LH pitching for a wOBA of .432.

Additional Plays: Neil Walker Russell Martin

Cincinnati at NY Yankees

Cincinnati					NY Yankees
Mike Leake		Vegas Moneyline			David Phelps		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		NYY (-110)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.279	0.754	0.335	14.8%	SP vs. Left	0.235	0.702	0.320	22.4%
SP vs. Right	0.246	0.660	0.298	18.4%	SP vs. Right	0.284	0.762	0.347	17.8%
Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Mike Leake – Leake comes into the second half of the season with a decent 3.54 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He will have a tough matchup against a lefty heavy Yankees squad in Yankee Stadium tonight. Leake has struggled against lefties, allowing a .374 wOBA on the year. Due to the matchup and his low 6.87 K/9, Leake is an avoid tonight. Rating = 4

Salaries: $8100 FD, $NA DS, $13550 DD, $8400 DK, $NA FF, $22700 SS, $NA FTD

• David Phelps – Phelps had pitched well in his final 3 starts before the break. He allowed only 5 earned runs in 18.2 innings while striking out 12 batters. Phelps has pitched very well in his 4 starts at Yankee Stadium and has a 2.57 ERA to show for it. Phelps is never going to put up high strikeout totals, which depresses his value, but could be a long shot, GPP play on multi-pitcher sites due to his very low salary. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5900 FD, $ DS, $9850 DD, $5900 DK, $ FF, $13600 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Devin Mesoraco – This might be the perfect R/R matchup of the night as Phelps has struggled against righties (.356 wOBA) and Mesoraco has crushed righties (.433 wOBA, 1.009 OPS).

Additional Plays: Jay Bruce

NY Yankees

Mark Teixeira – Teixeira will look to have a better second half of the season as he came into the break only hitting .241. He does have a wOBA of .366 against RH pitching on the year and had a multi-homer game right before the break. He continues to be cheap and could make a great play tonight.

Additional Plays: Jacoby Ellsbury Brett Gardner Brian McCann Carlos Beltran

Texas at Toronto

Texas					Toronto
Yu Darvish		Vegas Moneyline			R.A. Dickey		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TEX (-105)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.222	0.659	0.299	29.0%	SP vs. Left	0.250	0.739	0.330	17.8%
SP vs. Right	0.177	0.530	0.245	36.3%	SP vs. Right	0.232	0.697	0.312	20.1%
Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs R		Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Yu Darvish – Yu comes limping into this matchup against the Blue Jays as he has allowed 18 earned runs in his last 5 starts. What is really odd is the type of teams that have gotten to him (HOU, NYM). He will try to bounce back at the Rogers Centre where we know pitching has struggled all year long. He could always pitch a gem at any time, but due to the matchup and ball park and his high price, he may not be at the top of my list. Due to his K rate and the injuries to the Jays, he is in play for GPPs, but I will not be using his in cash games as much as I normally would. Rating = 8

Salaries: $11100 FD, $NA DS, $20300 DD, $11400 DK, $NA FF, $29800 SS, $NA FTD

R.A. Dickey – Dickey has managed to only allow 4 earned runs in his last 3 starts before the break. In these three starts, he also did not give up a home run. Looking deeper, these were all away starts. At Rogers Centre, Dickey has allowed 11 home runs in 10 starts on the year. He gets a decent matchup against the Rangers who are 22nd in the league in team wOBA against RH pitching. This aside, I will be avoiding him today due to him pitching against Yu at Rogers. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7800 FD, $ DS, $13700 DD, $7900 DK, $ FF, $22200 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Alex Rios – Rios has hit the Knuckleball well in the past as is 5/18 with 2 home runs. If you are going to select any Rangers today, you want someone that can go yard, and Rios can do that tonight.

Additional Plays: Adrian Beltre

Toronto

Melky Cabrera – Guys are going to have to step up for this Blue Jays team the next few weeks with the injuries to some of their bats. Cabrera has been a very consistent option for Toronto as he has a .299 average on the year.

Cleveland at Detroit

Cleveland					Detroit
Trevor Bauer		Vegas Moneyline			Anibal Sanchez		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		DET (-163)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.255	0.772	0.347	16.8%	SP vs. Left	0.229	0.620	0.279	24.5%
SP vs. Right	0.269	0.762	0.334	21.9%	SP vs. Right	0.209	0.569	0.258	24.4%
Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R		Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Trevor Bauer – Bauer is coming off by far his best performance of the year as he went 6.2 shutout innings with 10 K’s against the White Sox. He will look to carry over that success tonight in a very tough matchup against the Tigers. Bauer has struggled a bit in his 2 starts against the Tigers allowing 6 earned runs and 20 baserunners. Due to the matchup, Bauer makes a GPP play only. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5800 FD, $NA DS, $13650 DD, $6800 DK, $NA FF, $18000 SS, $NA FTD

• Anibal Sanchez – Sanchez has been susceptible to giving up the big game here and there this season. He bounced back from a 7 earned run performance to throw a 1 run, 8 innings performance against the Royals before the break. He has an overall 3.04 ERA, with 1.04 WHIP on the year. Sanchez’s K rate continues to be at career lows (6.66 K/9), but he makes a decent play today as a big favorite against the Tribe. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7300 FD, $ DS, $14650 DD, $8100 DK, $ FF, $22200 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Michael Brantley – Brantley has had a standout first half of the year. He has crushed RH pitching for a .411 wOBA and a .942 OPS. Look for Brantley to continue his hot hitting tonight.

Additional Plays: Carlos Santana

Detroit

Miguel Cabrera – For his standards, Miggy had a poor first half of the season. Poor meaning a .306 average, 14 home runs and 75 RBI’s. He is still raking RH pitching for a .395 wOBA and will look to start the second half of the season with a bang tonight.

Additional Plays: Victor Martinez J.D. Martinez

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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