MLB Grind Down: Friday, May 2nd
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
St. Louis at Chicago Cubs
| St. Louis | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
| Adam Wainwright | Vegas Moneyline | Travis Wood | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | STL (-158) | LEFT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.230 | 0.598 | 0.271 | 23.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.210 | 0.574 | 0.269 | 22.6% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.239 | 0.596 | 0.269 | 23.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.235 | 0.655 | 0.297 | 16.9% |
| Batter Splits | STL BvP  | STL vs L | Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Adam Wainwright – The wind blowing out in Wrigley is one of the only times that I let wind affect my judgment on players. While it’s not the middle of July where the ball just carries and carries, the wind is blowing out to right at about 15 MPH. The total of this game is set at 8.5 which is about 2 runs higher than it typically would be with these two pitchers on the mound. Wainwright owns a 1.20 ERA with a 0.78 WHIP and a K/9 just over 8.0. He is a nice option if you are playing in early leagues, but his value is hurt a little by the wind. Rating = 8
Travis Wood – Wood is coming off of his worst start of the season. He gave up 5 earned runs in a loss to the Brewers in his last outing. Today he faces a Cardinals’ lineup that features a trio of lefty killers in Molina, Craig, and Holliday. If they can get the ball up in the air, the wind may help carry a few balls over the fence. He’s a below average fantasy option today. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
Yadier Molina – Molina has always hit LH pitching well (.918 OPS over the last 3 seasons) and has great numbers against this southpaw. Molina has faced Wood 27 times and has recorded 11 hits with 3 of those going for HR’s.
Additional Plays: Allen Craig, Matt Holliday
Chicago
Anthony Rizzo – Rizzo is a nice tournament play today if you are playing in any early GPP’s. He has nice power against RH pitching and with the wind blowing out to right, he could steal a cheap HR of the RH Wainwright.
Additional Plays: Nate Schierholtz
Toronto at Pittsburgh
| Toronto | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
| Brandon Morrow | Vegas Moneyline | Gerrit Cole | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | PIT (-136) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.291 | 0.983 | 0.418 | 17.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.245 | 0.609 | 0.281 | 20.5% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.246 | 0.670 | 0.300 | 21.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.259 | 0.671 | 0.302 | 20.7% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Brandon Morrow – Morrow’s last start was rather incredible. He didn’t allow a hit, but had 4 earned runs in 2 and 2/3 innings. How is that possible you ask? Well he walked 8 batters, including walking 3 in the 3rd inning before getting pulled. The reliever then gave up a grand slam. With Morrow, it’s all about his command and it doesn’t appear that he has it right now. I’m not going to have any exposure to him tonight. Rating = 3
Gerrit Cole – Cole is off to a terrific start this season and picked up right where he left off in the playoff last year. He has a 3.18 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and 26 K’s over 32 innings of work. This Blue Jays lineup has a lot of good hitters in it, but PNC Park is a pitcher friendly ballpark and Cole held LH and RH batters under a .305 wOBA last season. I will certainly have some exposure to Cole tonight. Rating = 7
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
Juan Francisco – Francisco makes a nice contrarian play in a GPP today. He has really hit RH pitching well this season with a .355 average and a 1.17 OPS. Pitchers seem to forget how much power he has in their bat as pitchers are typically more worried about Joey Bats and E5.
Additional Plays: Jose Reyes
Pittsburgh
Pedro Alvarez – Target the LH batters of the Pirates, target the LH batters of the Pirates, target the LH batters of the Pirates. Over Morrow’s last 15 starts dating back to last season, he has given up a .400+ wOBA and a .950+ OPS to LH batters. Alvarez is one of my favorite plays at 3B tonight.
Additional Plays: Ike Davis, Neil Walker
Tampa Bay at NY Yankees
| Tampa Bay | NY Yankees | ||||||||
| David Price | Vegas Moneyline | Vidal Nuno | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | TBR (-143) | LEFT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.212 | 0.549 | 0.246 | 23.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.250 | 0.726 | 0.342 | 21.2% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.268 | 0.712 | 0.313 | 21.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.255 | 0.783 | 0.339 | 15.2% |
| Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs L | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
David Price – Price’s numbers on the season aren’t great, but most of the damage against him seems to happen in a single inning. That was the case in his last start against the White Sox as well as a previous start against the Yankees. Tonight he gets to face this Yankees lineup again and we will see if he changes his approach. When he is attacking the strike zone like he does, hitters know what is coming. Price has owned the Yankees historically, but is better served as a GPP play tonight. Rating = 5
Vidal Nuno – Nuno has a 6.59 ERA on the season, but has been better in his last two appearances as he has only allowed a combined 3 earned runs in his two starts against the Rays and the Angels. Nuno is not a great fantasy option because he doesn’t strike out many batters and he doesn’t pitch deep into games. He should be avoided in daily fantasy. Rating = 2
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
Evan Longoria – Nuno is giving up a .972 OPS to RH batters this season and this feels like a Longoria type of night. Longo is the third 3B that I’ve already recommended in the GD so you definitely have some choices at 3B. Longo loves the new Yankee Stadium as he hit for a 1.28 OPS there last season which was his 2nd highest OPS in any ballpark.
Additional Plays: Ben Zobrist, Sean Rodriguez, Desmond Jennings
N.Y. Yankees
Alfonso Soriano – Soriano has always hit LH pitching well (.900+ OPS over the last 3 seasons) and took Price deep when he faced him in Tampa earlier this year. If Price is throwing fast balls down the middle, look for the Yankees to be aggressive early in the count.
Additional Plays: Carlos Beltran, Mark Teixeira
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland
| Chicago White Sox | Cleveland | ||||||||
| John Danks | Vegas Moneyline | Danny Salazar | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | CLE (-130) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.283 | 0.785 | 0.345 | 12.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.240 | 0.647 | 0.294 | 31.3% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.264 | 0.764 | 0.335 | 15.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.269 | 0.839 | 0.361 | 27.7% |
| Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CHW vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
John Danks – Danks has a 3.48 on the season, but has a high WHIP of 1.41. A large part of that is thanks to his 17 walks given up already. I hate targeting pitchers that are struggling with their command or pitchers that make it a habit of giving batters a free pass by walking them. Southpaws typically have some success against the Indians because of the many LH batters in their lineup, but Danks actually gives up a higher wOBA to LH batters. There is more risk than reward with Danks tonight. Rating = 4
Danny Salazar – Salazar is coming off of his best start of the season as he struck out 8 batters over 7 innings of work while only giving up 1 earned run to the Giants. Tonight he faces a White Sox offense that is in the top 5 in runs scored this season. Salazar is a high strikeout pitcher (K/9 of 11.20 in his career) and makes for a nice tournament play. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
Jose Abreu – Salazar is a RH pitcher, but he is giving up a higher wOBA and OPS to RH batters this season. Abreu has great power as he broke the rookie HR record for the month of April. He already has 10 jacks on the season and 6 of those came against RH pitching.
Additional Plays: Adam Eaton
Cleveland
Ryan Raburn – Before you want to start throwing rocks at me for suggesting Raburn, hear me out. Raburn has been a LH pitching specialist for the Indians over the past two seasons. He typically bats 5th or 6th in the lineup against southpaws and he is close to minimum salary across the board. Last season Raburn hit for a 1.02 OPS against lefties and has great career numbers off of Danks (13/37, 3 HR’s).
Additional Plays: Carlos Santana, Michael Brantley
Washington at Philadelphia
| Washington | Philadelphia | ||||||||
| Stephen Strasburg | Vegas Moneyline | Cliff Lee | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | PHI (-110) | LEFT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.218 | 0.613 | 0.284 | 23.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.215 | 0.509 | 0.240 | 21.1% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.217 | 0.575 | 0.270 | 31.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.255 | 0.685 | 0.298 | 26.2% |
| Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs L | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Stephen Strasburg – Once again we have to ask ourselves, “Do we dare trust Strasburg on the road?” His last 17 road starts have yielded an ERA close to 5.00 compared to his ERA at home which is under 2.00. He just doesn’t seem to be the same confident pitcher away from Nationals Park. For that reason, I will not be paying up for him to use in cash games, but I will be throwing him on a few of my GPP lineups. Rating = 7
Cliff Lee – Lee is still one of the highest strikeout pitchers in baseball, but he has given up more hits than he has in year’s past. His WHIP this season is 1.36 compared to that of 1.01 and 1.11 over the last two seasons. Lee has always been able to pitch out of jams, but I do think there are better options for cash games. Lee is still an ace in this league and I think he will go overlooked tonight which makes him a nice target for GPP’s. Rating = 7
Batter Grind Down
Washington / Philadelphia
There’s not a lot to like about either offense in this one. Both of these pitchers held LH and RH opponents to a wOBA under .300 last season and the total for this game is only set at 7.0 runs. Target batters from other games tonight.