MLB Grind Down: Friday, May 9th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
St. Louis at Pittsburgh
| St. Louis | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
| Michael Wacha | Vegas Moneyline | Francisco Liriano | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | STL (-130) | LEFT | 6.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.210 | 0.542 | 0.247 | 24.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.163 | 0.404 | 0.188 | 27.5% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.233 | 0.663 | 0.302 | 27.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.247 | 0.687 | 0.309 | 23.1% |
| Batter Splits | STL BvP  | STL vs L | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Michael Wacha – We have quite a few aces on the mound tonight, including two in this game. Wacha is one of the best young pitchers in baseball and he has electric stuff which is great for his fantasy value. Through 7 starts this season, Wacha has a 2.55 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and a K/9 of 10.7. He faces a Pirates’ offense that is ranked 21st against RH pitching this season (team .304 wOBA). Wacha is a high upside play that is worth considering in GPP’s and on sites that allow multiple starting pitchers. Rating = 8
Francisco Liriano – Liriano is a high strikeout pitcher, but he’s been unable to pitch out of trouble this season. Through 7 starts he has a 4.54 ERA with 37 K’s over 37 innings of work. The biggest issue that I have with Liriano is that he has already given up 17 walks this season. He has pitched well against the Cards in his career, but I think Wacha is the much better play in this game. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
Jhonny Peralta – The Cardinals offense is starting to heat up a little. A lot of that has to do with the play of J-Honny Peralta who has 9 hits (4 XBH’s) over his last 6 games. Peralta has historically hit LH pitching well and is catching Liriano at the right time.
Additional Plays: Yadier Molina
Pittsburgh
The total for this game is set at 6.5 runs and the Pirates are sizable underdogs. There are much better matchups elsewhere on the schedule. Avoid all Pirates’ hitters tonight.
Houston at Baltimore
| Houston | Baltimore | ||||||||
| Scott Feldman | Vegas Moneyline | Wei-Yin Chen | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | BAL (-170) | LEFT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.234 | 0.648 | 0.300 | 15.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.276 | 0.756 | 0.335 | 18.2% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.220 | 0.616 | 0.283 | 17.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.283 | 0.764 | 0.337 | 18.2% |
| Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs L | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Scott Feldman – Feldman will return from the DL tonight to make his 5th start of the season. Feldman has really pitched well with a 1.69 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. He is certainly a pitcher to keep an eye on moving forward, but I like to give pitchers at least 1 start after coming back from the DL before targeting them. He could potentially be on a pitch count, be rusty, or re-aggravate the injury. Rating = 4
Wei-Yin Chen – Chen is a pitcher that has a decent ERA, a decent WHIP, and a decent K-rate. He never typically stands out as a must play, but I do like the matchup for him tonight against the Astros who are ranked 24th against LH pitching (team .291 wOBA). The Astros have also struck out the 3rd most times of any team in baseball. Chen is a nice mid-range option at SP tonight. Rating = 7
Batter Grind Down
Houston
George Springer – Mr. Springer hit his first major league HR yesterday and now faces another average LH pitcher tonight. I mentioned yesterday that it was only a matter of time before this kid started to hit and now is a great time to target him while his price is so cheap.
Additional Plays: Jose Altuve
Baltimore
Manny Machado – Feldman has been very good this season, but I expect him to be a little rusty after coming off of the DL with a biceps injury. Machado is also working his way back from injury and his price reflects that as he is one of the cheaper 3B options available tonight. Machado hit .279 with 45 XBH’s against RH pitching last season.
Additional Plays: Adam Jones
LA Angels at Toronto
| LA Angels | Toronto | ||||||||
| Garrett Richards | Vegas Moneyline | Dustin McGowan | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TOR (-115) | RIGHT | 9.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.253 | 0.689 | 0.314 | 18.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.227 | 0.700 | 0.326 | 16.3% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.251 | 0.613 | 0.279 | 18.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.226 | 0.641 | 0.297 | 21.4% |
| Batter Splits | LAA BvP | LAA vs R | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Garrett Richards – Through 6 starts this season, Richards has only allowed more than 3 earned runs 1 time. He has always had the talent, he just hasn’t been able to put it all together until this year. He has a 2.84 ERA with a K/9 of 9.4. Now that I’ve talked him up, I’m going to recommended fading him tonight. The Blue Jays are very good offensively at home (20+ runs in last 2 games) and Richards is a small underdog with the total set at 9.0 runs. Rating = 4
Dustin McGowan – McGowan has a 4.80 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP this season. He’s failed to pitch more than 4 innings in 3 of his first 6 starts and faces a very tough Angels’ lineup in the very hitter friendly Rogers Centre. See where I’m going with this one? Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
L.A. Angels
Mike Trout – I’ll take Trout in a hitter friendly ballpark any time that I can. Trout is good against RH pitching, LH pitching, and would likely be good against a 3rd type of pitching is that was possible. He has great power and great speed and I’m expecting a monster series out of him.
Additional Plays: ALbert Pujols, Howie Kendrick, C.J. Cron
Toronto
Juan Francisco – Richards has been very good against RH in his career and instead of targeting the big bats of Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista, I like the cheaper bats of Juan Francisco and Jose Reyes. Juan Fran is batting .386 with 7 XBH’s against RH pitching this season.
Additional Plays: Jose Reyes
Minnesota at Detroit
| Minnesota | Detroit | ||||||||
| Phil Hughes | Vegas Moneyline | Justin Verlander | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | DET (-210) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.283 | 0.822 | 0.360 | 19.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.233 | 0.652 | 0.293 | 23.2% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.299 | 0.799 | 0.352 | 18.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.277 | 0.726 | 0.322 | 22.0% |
| Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Phil Hughes – Don’t look now, but Hughes is really starting to pitch well. This seems to happen to pitchers that were once good and then struggled during their stint in New York with the Yankees. In his last 2 starts, he has struck out 9 batters over 13 innings of work while only allowing 3 earned runs. The issue that I have with Hughes tonight is his opponent. The Tigers are ranked 7th against RH pitching this season (team .328 wOBA). Avoid him today, but keep your eye on him moving forward. Rating = 3
Justin Verlander – Verlander’s numbers on the season look great, yet we keep hearing that he is off to a slow start this season. I disagree. While his K-rate is down a bit, Verlander still have a 2.68 ERA and a K/9 of 7.3. I like the matchup against the Twins who could be without Joe Mauer again (Twins are hoping to have him back for this series). Verlander will likely go overlooked with the other top aces on the mound, but I think he makes a terrific play. Rating = 9
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
Joe Mauer is really the only Twins’ batter that has hit Verlander well. If he is in the lineup, he could make a nice value play at 1B, but the rest of the Twins’ batters should be avoided. If Mauer sits, that’s even more reason to target Verlander.
Detroit
Miguel Cabrera – Miggy is in play against basically every single pitcher in baseball, but especially the one named Phil Hughes. Miggy will be my BvP stat of the day. He has owned Hughes in his career by going 15/28 with 5 HR’s and 4 doubles. Those look like Tulo-type numbers at home this season. If you can afford him, get him in your lineups.
Additional Plays: Victor Martinez, Torii Hunter, Ian Kinsler
Cleveland at Tampa Bay
| Cleveland | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
| Corey Kluber | Vegas Moneyline | Jake Odorizzi | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TBR (-114) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.278 | 0.734 | 0.327 | 23.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.311 | 0.867 | 0.379 | 16.8% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.265 | 0.690 | 0.310 | 22.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.260 | 0.743 | 0.329 | 21.9% |
| Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Corey Kluber – Kluber has had 2 huge fantasy outing in his last 3 starts. On the season he has a 3.60 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP and a K/9 of 9.6. While those numbers are great, he has failed to have that same success on the road. Since the start of last season, Kluber’s road ERA is over 5.00 compared to his home ERA of under 3.00. He’s worth a look as a tournament play, but should be avoided in cash games. Rating = 5
Jake Odorizzi – Odorizzi is a high strikeout pitchers, but teams seem to figure him out the second time through the lineup. He has only pitched a combined 27 innings in 6 starts this season. You want to target pitchers that can pitch deep into games and that’s just not the case with Odorizzi. I’ll be avoiding him tonight. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
Cleveland
Michael Brantley – Odorizzi is giving up a .328 batting average and an OPS of .913 to LH batters this season. That bodes well for the Indians’ batters tonight. Brantley is really locked in right now and has been crushing RH pitching all season long.
Additional Plays: Lonnie Chisenhall, David Murphy, Asdrubal Cabrera
Tampa Bay
Matt Joyce – Another solid matchup for Joyce tonight. While he hasn’t played bad over the last two games, he hasn’t been particularly great either. Joyce is great at home and he is great against RH pitching. I think he has a nice night against Kluber who struggles on the road.
Additional Plays: Evan Longoria