MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 14th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Atlanta at Philadelphia
| Atlanta | Philadelphia |
| Ervin Santana | Vegas Moneyline | Roberto Hernandez | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | ATL (-128) | RIGHT | 8.0 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.244 | 0.660 | 0.296 | 17.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.294 | 0.859 | 0.386 | 17.0% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.222 | 0.633 | 0.284 | 20.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.261 | 0.670 | 0.309 | 20.1% |
| Batter Splits | ATL BvP  | ATL vs R | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Ervin Santana – The Braves have to be very impressed with Santana’s debut as a Braves pitcher. He threw 8 shutout innings against the Mets with 6 strikeouts. They are really hoping that he can be the missing piece in their rotation after already losing Medlen and Beachy for the rest of the year. Santana is coming off of one of his best seasons with a 3.24 ERA and a K/9 of 6.9. This Phillies lineup can hit RH pitching well, but it’s certainly not an intimidating lineup outside of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. He has some value if the price is right. Rating = 6
- Roberto Hernandez – Hernandez hasn’t been awful or dominant in his first two starts for the Phillies. Typically, he is either one or the other, but he has a 4.35 ERA with 14 K’s over 11 innings pitched. His biggest weakness is LH batters as he gave up a .386 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate last season. With Heyward and Freeman’s power LH bats and Justin Upton on a tear right now, I don’t love the outlook for Hernandez tonight. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
- Freddie Freeman – As mentioned above, Hernandez gave up a .386 wOBA and an OPS of .859 to LH batters last season. That puts all LH bats from the Braves in play. Freeman has been locked in all season with a .442 batting average and 4 HR’s.
Philadelphia
- Chase Utley – Utley is putting up video game numbers right now. He is batting .500 on the season with 3 HR’s and 10 RBI’s. He has recorded a hit in every single game this season and has 4 straight multi-hit games. If he’s affordable, don’t hesitate to take him at 2B.
Tampa Bay at Baltimore
| Tampa Bay | Baltimore |
| Chris Archer | Vegas Moneyline | Wei-Yin Chen | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | TBR (-115) | LEFT | 7.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.252 | 0.748 | 0.335 | 21.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.257 | 0.726 | 0.323 | 19.3% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.186 | 0.462 | 0.221 | 16.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.292 | 0.789 | 0.346 | 17.5% |
| Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs L | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Chris Archer – Archer is a pitcher that can make a terrific play when the situation is right. He posted a 3.22 ERA with a K/9 of 7.1 last season. Archer is terrific against RH batters (.221 wOBA) and struggles against LH batters (.335 wOBA). Outside of Chris Davis, the Orioles don’t really have any other LH bats with any power. Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters, and David Lough all hit from the left side, but neither should cause much of a problem for Archer. He is a very sneaky tournament play tonight. Rating = 6
- Wei-Yin Chen – Chen has to wish that he pitched in the NL. His first 3 opponents this season are the Red Sox, the Yankees, and now the Rays. Chen posted a K/9 of 6.8 last season and had some decent success against this Rays lineup as he posted a 3.10 ERA over 3 starts. This game is basically a pick ‘em, but I think Archer offers slightly more upside than Chen tonight. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
- Evan Longoria – Chen gave up a .346 wOBA and an OPS of .789 to RH batters last season. Longo has always hit LH pitching well and makes a terrific play at 3B if you can afford him. Longo hit for a .949 OPS against lefties last season including 26 XBH’s.
Baltimore
- Chris Davis – As mentioned above, lefties have had success against Archer in his career. Davis finally got his first HR of the season yesterday and will look to back it up today against Archer who gave up a .335 wOBA to LH batters. Davis hit 40 of his 53 HR’s against RH pitching last season.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
| Pittsburgh | Cincinnati |
| Wandy Rodriguez | Vegas Moneyline | Homer Bailey | Vegas Over/Under |
| LEFT | CIN (-120) | RIGHT | 7.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.265 | 0.740 | 0.344 | 8.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.281 | 0.770 | 0.345 | 21.3% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.247 | 0.727 | 0.322 | 21.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.204 | 0.571 | 0.262 | 24.8% |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs L |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Wandy Rodriguez – Rodriguez really struggled on the road last season. In 6 road starts, he posted a 6.26 ERA with a 1.65 WHIP. Rodriguez is off to a slow start this season and both of his starts were against a less than stellar Cubs’ lineup. Tonight he has to face the Reds in Great American Ballpark. The Reds offense finally looks like it is coming alive and Rodriguez does not look like a great cash game play. Rating = 4
- Homer Bailey – Bailey has gotten rocked in each of his first two starts. That said, both were against the Cardinals and I’ll give him a pass. Bailey pitched very well at home last season with a 3.35 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. Bailey has a much higher K-rate than most people realize. Last season he posted a K/9 of 8.5. He pitched pretty well against the Pirates last season and makes a decent play if the price is right tonight. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
- Pedro Alvarez – I absolutely love Pedro as a tournament play tonight and think he carries some value as a cash game play as well. Bailey gave up a .345 wOBA to LH batters last season and this game will be played at Great American which surrendered the 2nd most HR’s last season. Pedro hit 33 HR’s off of RH pitching last season and is my odds on favorite to get a jack tonight.
Cincinnati
- Brandon Phillips – Phillips is really flying under the radar right now. He is really hitting the ball well right now (.327 average), but just hasn’t had any help from teammates as most of his hits come with no runners on base. Phillips hits LH pitching well and is a nice under-priced option at 2B.
Washington at Miami
| Washington | Miami |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Vegas Moneyline | Brad Hand | Vegas Over/Under |
| RIGHT | WAS (-128) | LEFT | 7.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.269 | 0.719 | 0.317 | 16.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.189 | 0.582 | 0.257 | 30.8% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.216 | 0.593 | 0.270 | 21.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.164 | 0.536 | 0.253 | 12.8% |
| Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs L | Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jordan Zimmermann – I’m sure that I’m not the only one that is a bit hesitant to take Zimmermann tonight after his last outing against the Marlins. Zimmermann didn’t even get through 2 innings and he gave up 5 earned runs off of 7 hits. A large portion of DFS players are going to automatically rule him out tonight, but you have to have a very short memory in DFS. This is still a solid matchup for Zimmermann and I will be targeting him heavily again tonight as he is facing a fairly average offense in a pitcher’s ballpark. Rating = 8
- Brad Hand – Hand has a career 4.48 ERA with a K/9 of 5.9. He is still a very young lefty (24 years old) with only 15 starts under his belt. With this Nationals’ lineup extremely banged up right now, he could make for an interesting tournament play. He is one of the cheapest pitcher options on the board and will be facing a lineup that will be missing key pieces. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
Washington
- Anthony Rendon – Get used to this name because you are going to be hearing it for a very long time. Rendon is a terrific young hitter that is primed for a breakout season. He hit .294 against LH pitching last season and may be batting leadoff again tonight with Span out.
Miami
- Again, call me crazy but I think Zimmermann bounces back and pitches a gem tonight. For that reason, I will not be targeting any Marlins bats in cash games.
Seattle at Texas
| Seattle | Texas |
| Roenis Elias | Vegas Moneyline | Colby Lewis | Vegas Over/Under |
| LEFT | TEX (-135) | RIGHT | 9.5 |
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.125 | 0.500 | 0.202 | 12.5% | SP vs. Left | | | | |
| SP vs. Right | 0.192 | 0.598 | 0.295 | 12.9% | SP vs. Right | | | | |
| Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs R | Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs L |
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
- Roenis Elias – Elias will be making his 3rd career start and this will be his toughest test to date. He is facing a powerful Rangers lineup in Globe Life Park. Elias has only allowed 3 earned runs over 10 innings of work, but hasn’t struck out more than 3 batters in a game or lasted more than 5 innings. He has very limited upside and is a very risky play against the Rangers. Rating = 3
- Colby Lewis – We haven’t seen this name in quite a while. Lewis hasn’t pitched since the 2012 season where he posted a 3.43 ERA over 16 starts. Lewis is only getting this start because Joe Saunders was placed on the 15-day DL. The fact that he is behind Saunders in the rotation is very telling. He didn’t look great in his Triple-A rehab start and should not be targeted at this time. Rating = 3
Batter Grind Down
Seattle
- Robinson Cano – In 2012 Lewis gave up a .771 OPS to LH batters and Cano is my top 2B play of the day. I really think the Mariners will knock Lewis around a bit and Cano hits RH pitching almost as well as anyone. Cano against a weak RH pitcher in a hitter friendly park? Yes please!
Texas
- Alex Rios – The Rangers are really missing the bat of Adrian Beltre right now, but should be able to get things going offensively tonight against Elias. Rios hit for a .313 average against LH pitching last season and has the attractive combination of speed and power.
MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2
