MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 14th

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Atlanta at Philadelphia

Atlanta Philadelphia
Ervin Santana Vegas Moneyline Roberto Hernandez Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT ATL (-128) RIGHT 8.0
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.244 0.660 0.296 17.4% SP vs. Left 0.294 0.859 0.386 17.0%
SP vs. Right 0.222 0.633 0.284 20.7% SP vs. Right 0.261 0.670 0.309 20.1%
Batter Splits ATL BvP pop up 2 ATL vs R pop up 2 Batter Splits PHI BvP pop up 2 PHI vs R pop up 2
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

  • Ervin Santana – The Braves have to be very impressed with Santana’s debut as a Braves pitcher. He threw 8 shutout innings against the Mets with 6 strikeouts. They are really hoping that he can be the missing piece in their rotation after already losing Medlen and Beachy for the rest of the year. Santana is coming off of one of his best seasons with a 3.24 ERA and a K/9 of 6.9. This Phillies lineup can hit RH pitching well, but it’s certainly not an intimidating lineup outside of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. He has some value if the price is right. Rating = 6
  • Roberto Hernandez – Hernandez hasn’t been awful or dominant in his first two starts for the Phillies. Typically, he is either one or the other, but he has a 4.35 ERA with 14 K’s over 11 innings pitched. His biggest weakness is LH batters as he gave up a .386 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate last season. With Heyward and Freeman’s power LH bats and Justin Upton on a tear right now, I don’t love the outlook for Hernandez tonight. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

  • Freddie Freeman – As mentioned above, Hernandez gave up a .386 wOBA and an OPS of .859 to LH batters last season. That puts all LH bats from the Braves in play. Freeman has been locked in all season with a .442 batting average and 4 HR’s.

Philadelphia

  • Chase Utley – Utley is putting up video game numbers right now. He is batting .500 on the season with 3 HR’s and 10 RBI’s. He has recorded a hit in every single game this season and has 4 straight multi-hit games. If he’s affordable, don’t hesitate to take him at 2B.
  • Additional Plays: None


Tampa Bay at Baltimore

Tampa Bay Baltimore
Chris Archer Vegas Moneyline Wei-Yin Chen Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT TBR (-115) LEFT 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.252 0.748 0.335 21.2% SP vs. Left 0.257 0.726 0.323 19.3%
SP vs. Right 0.186 0.462 0.221 16.9% SP vs. Right 0.292 0.789 0.346 17.5%
Batter Splits TBR BvP pop up 2 TBR vs L pop up 2 Batter Splits BAL BvP pop up 2 BAL vs R pop up 2
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

  • Chris Archer – Archer is a pitcher that can make a terrific play when the situation is right. He posted a 3.22 ERA with a K/9 of 7.1 last season. Archer is terrific against RH batters (.221 wOBA) and struggles against LH batters (.335 wOBA). Outside of Chris Davis, the Orioles don’t really have any other LH bats with any power. Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters, and David Lough all hit from the left side, but neither should cause much of a problem for Archer. He is a very sneaky tournament play tonight. Rating = 6
  • Wei-Yin Chen – Chen has to wish that he pitched in the NL. His first 3 opponents this season are the Red Sox, the Yankees, and now the Rays. Chen posted a K/9 of 6.8 last season and had some decent success against this Rays lineup as he posted a 3.10 ERA over 3 starts. This game is basically a pick ‘em, but I think Archer offers slightly more upside than Chen tonight. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

  • Evan Longoria – Chen gave up a .346 wOBA and an OPS of .789 to RH batters last season. Longo has always hit LH pitching well and makes a terrific play at 3B if you can afford him. Longo hit for a .949 OPS against lefties last season including 26 XBH’s.

Baltimore

  • Chris Davis – As mentioned above, lefties have had success against Archer in his career. Davis finally got his first HR of the season yesterday and will look to back it up today against Archer who gave up a .335 wOBA to LH batters. Davis hit 40 of his 53 HR’s against RH pitching last season.


Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

Pittsburgh Cincinnati
Wandy Rodriguez Vegas Moneyline Homer Bailey Vegas Over/Under
LEFT CIN (-120) RIGHT 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.265 0.740 0.344 8.1% SP vs. Left 0.281 0.770 0.345 21.3%
SP vs. Right 0.247 0.727 0.322 21.6% SP vs. Right 0.204 0.571 0.262 24.8%
Batter Splits PIT BvP pop up 2 PIT vs R pop up 2 Batter Splits CIN BvP pop up 2 CIN vs L pop up 2
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

  • Wandy Rodriguez – Rodriguez really struggled on the road last season. In 6 road starts, he posted a 6.26 ERA with a 1.65 WHIP. Rodriguez is off to a slow start this season and both of his starts were against a less than stellar Cubs’ lineup. Tonight he has to face the Reds in Great American Ballpark. The Reds offense finally looks like it is coming alive and Rodriguez does not look like a great cash game play. Rating = 4
  • Homer Bailey – Bailey has gotten rocked in each of his first two starts. That said, both were against the Cardinals and I’ll give him a pass. Bailey pitched very well at home last season with a 3.35 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. Bailey has a much higher K-rate than most people realize. Last season he posted a K/9 of 8.5. He pitched pretty well against the Pirates last season and makes a decent play if the price is right tonight. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

  • Pedro Alvarez – I absolutely love Pedro as a tournament play tonight and think he carries some value as a cash game play as well. Bailey gave up a .345 wOBA to LH batters last season and this game will be played at Great American which surrendered the 2nd most HR’s last season. Pedro hit 33 HR’s off of RH pitching last season and is my odds on favorite to get a jack tonight.

Cincinnati

  • Brandon Phillips – Phillips is really flying under the radar right now. He is really hitting the ball well right now (.327 average), but just hasn’t had any help from teammates as most of his hits come with no runners on base. Phillips hits LH pitching well and is a nice under-priced option at 2B.


Washington at Miami

Washington Miami
Jordan Zimmermann Vegas Moneyline Brad Hand Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT WAS (-128) LEFT 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.269 0.719 0.317 16.8% SP vs. Left 0.189 0.582 0.257 30.8%
SP vs. Right 0.216 0.593 0.270 21.4% SP vs. Right 0.164 0.536 0.253 12.8%
Batter Splits WSN BvP pop up 2 WSN vs L pop up 2 Batter Splits MIA BvP pop up 2 MIA vs R pop up 2
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

  • Jordan Zimmermann – I’m sure that I’m not the only one that is a bit hesitant to take Zimmermann tonight after his last outing against the Marlins. Zimmermann didn’t even get through 2 innings and he gave up 5 earned runs off of 7 hits. A large portion of DFS players are going to automatically rule him out tonight, but you have to have a very short memory in DFS. This is still a solid matchup for Zimmermann and I will be targeting him heavily again tonight as he is facing a fairly average offense in a pitcher’s ballpark. Rating = 8
  • Brad Hand – Hand has a career 4.48 ERA with a K/9 of 5.9. He is still a very young lefty (24 years old) with only 15 starts under his belt. With this Nationals’ lineup extremely banged up right now, he could make for an interesting tournament play. He is one of the cheapest pitcher options on the board and will be facing a lineup that will be missing key pieces. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

Washington

  • Anthony Rendon – Get used to this name because you are going to be hearing it for a very long time. Rendon is a terrific young hitter that is primed for a breakout season. He hit .294 against LH pitching last season and may be batting leadoff again tonight with Span out.

Miami

  • Again, call me crazy but I think Zimmermann bounces back and pitches a gem tonight. For that reason, I will not be targeting any Marlins bats in cash games.


Seattle at Texas

Seattle Texas
Roenis Elias Vegas Moneyline Colby Lewis Vegas Over/Under
LEFT TEX (-135) RIGHT 9.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.125 0.500 0.202 12.5% SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right 0.192 0.598 0.295 12.9% SP vs. Right
Batter Splits SEA BvP pop up 2 SEA vs R pop up 2 Batter Splits TEX BvP pop up 2 TEX vs L pop up 2
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

  • Roenis Elias – Elias will be making his 3rd career start and this will be his toughest test to date. He is facing a powerful Rangers lineup in Globe Life Park. Elias has only allowed 3 earned runs over 10 innings of work, but hasn’t struck out more than 3 batters in a game or lasted more than 5 innings. He has very limited upside and is a very risky play against the Rangers. Rating = 3
  • Colby Lewis – We haven’t seen this name in quite a while. Lewis hasn’t pitched since the 2012 season where he posted a 3.43 ERA over 16 starts. Lewis is only getting this start because Joe Saunders was placed on the 15-day DL. The fact that he is behind Saunders in the rotation is very telling. He didn’t look great in his Triple-A rehab start and should not be targeted at this time. Rating = 3

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

  • Robinson Cano – In 2012 Lewis gave up a .771 OPS to LH batters and Cano is my top 2B play of the day. I really think the Mariners will knock Lewis around a bit and Cano hits RH pitching almost as well as anyone. Cano against a weak RH pitcher in a hitter friendly park? Yes please!

Texas

  • Alex Rios – The Rangers are really missing the bat of Adrian Beltre right now, but should be able to get things going offensively tonight against Elias. Rios hit for a .313 average against LH pitching last season and has the attractive combination of speed and power.


MLB Grind Down Page 1Page 2

About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Top-Ranked Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious graduated with a Masters degree from the University of Utah, but has since joined Team RotoGrinders. He is currently spotted in the Top 50 Overall rankings on RotoGrinders, and has been ranked as high as 5th. The talented Mr. Noto was a 2012 DSBC Finalist, 2013 DSBBC Finalist, 2013 DSBC Finalist (x2), 2013 DD BLB Finalist, 2013 DFBBC Finalist, and 2015 DK King of Boston Finalist. He also won the 2015-16 FCK NBA Players Championship. Notorious has been nominated for five Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards, including basketball, baseball, and golf.

    Notorious

Comments

  • itschavez

    Morning, Notorious! Question, are you targeting Zimmermann in $$ games or tournaments?

  • Notorious

    Lead RG Expert & Contributor

    • 19

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #18

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2013 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    • 2016 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    itschavez, what’s up man, he’s my top cash game pitcher across the board.

  • itschavez

    Okay, thanks Notorious. Honestly after Zimm, the options aren’t all that intriguing. Especially on DK where you get hit for negatives by hits and walks. I love Jesse Chavez, it may be the name thing but I just don’t like picking against certain bats…like the ones on LAA.

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