MLB Grind Down: Monday, July 7th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-07-07 22:34:58

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Baltimore at Washington

Baltimore					Washington
Chris Tillman		Vegas Moneyline			Stephen Strasburg		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		WAS (-185)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.263	0.756	0.336	18.2%	SP vs. Left	0.225	0.612	0.282	23.6%
SP vs. Right	0.231	0.712	0.314	20.9%	SP vs. Right	0.226	0.592	0.277	29.9%
Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R		Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Chris Tillman – We have a full slate of games on tap for Monday night so let’s hop right into it. Tillman takes the mound for the Orioles tonight against a Nationals’ lineup that looks awfully scary now that it is fully healthy. The Nationals are only ranked 22nd in wOBA (.302) against RH pitching this season, but I have a hard time targeting pitchers against a team that has Wilson Ramos batting 8th. Tillman has an ERA over 5.00 on the road and his peripheral stats don’t look good either. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5900 FD, $11237 DS, $10450 DD, $6100 DK, $69100 FF, $15700 SS, $10450 FTD

• Stephen Strasburg – Strasburg is a very interesting play tonight. His price is expensive, but it’s not too expensive that you can’t fill out a decent roster around him. At home this season, Strasburg has posted a 2.35 ERA to go along with his K/9 of 11.6. The Orioles are ranked 9th in wOBA against RH pitching this season, but good pitching beats good hitting and the BURG is in play on all sites. Rating = 8

Salaries: $9600 FD, $18892 DS, $18600 DD, $10600 DK, $98700 FF, $29300 SS, $18600 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

I’ll be avoiding all Orioles’ bats tonight in cash games. Strasburg has been terrific at home throughout his career. Nelson Cruz could be worth a look as a GPP play though.

Washington

Adam LaRoche – The wOBA machine loves LaRoche tonight against Tillman. Tillman has given up a .340 wOBA to LH hitters while LaRoche has posted an impressive .405 wOBA against RH pitching. He’s hit 3 HR’s in his last 10 games and is a solid play at 1B.

Additional Plays: Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman

NY Yankees at Cleveland

NY Yankees					Cleveland
Shane Greene		Vegas Moneyline			Justin Masterson		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CLE (-145)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left			0.690	0.0%	SP vs. Left	0.264	0.733	0.335	18.0%
SP vs. Right	0.000	0.333	0.230	33.3%	SP vs. Right	0.192	0.515	0.259	30.2%
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R		Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Shane Greene – Greene will be making a spot start tonight against the Indians as Vidal Nuno was dealt to the Diamondbacks. Greene is available on a few of the major DFS sites, but he’s not a recommended fantasy play. The Indians are ranked 6th in wOBA (.328) against RH pitching this season. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5000 FD, $NA DS, $7500 DD, $5000 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Justin Masterson – Masterson has been a boom or bust fantasy option all season long and remains so tonight against the Yankees. Masterson has the ability to post monster fantasy outings, but he also is vulnerable to giving up big outings. The Yankees are below average against RH pitching this season and Masterson can be targeted as a tournament play. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6700 FD, $10134 DS, $10500 DD, $6700 DK, $52200 FF, $16700 SS, $10500 FTD

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Jacoby Ellsbury – There’s been a common theme throughout Masterson’s career and that is that he struggles against LH hitters. In 2014, Masterson is giving up a .395 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate. Ellsbury is a solid fantasy option on all sites.

Additional Plays: Mark Teixeira, Brett Gardner, Carlos Beltran

Cleveland

Carlos Santana – There aren’t many splits that I can quote here as this will be Greene’s first career MLB start. That said, Santana is under-priced across the industry and is heating up with 5 hits over his last 4 games. Santana is a very streaky hitter and it’s a nice time to buy low.

Additional Plays: Michael Brantley, Jason Kipnis, Lonnie Chisenhall

Chicago White Sox at Boston

Chicago White Sox					Boston
Scott Carroll		Vegas Moneyline			Clay Buchholz		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		BOS (-185)			RIGHT		10.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.330	0.910	0.402	5.3%	SP vs. Left	0.238	0.654	0.298	20.3%
SP vs. Right	0.310	0.749	0.360	15.0%	SP vs. Right	0.268	0.703	0.313	20.4%
Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CHW vs R		Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Scott Carroll – There aren’t many games in Fenway Park that feature double-digit run totals, but tonight’s battle of the Sox’s total is set at 10.5 runs. Carroll has given up 10 earned runs over his last 2 starts and his ERA over 5.00 and WHIP over 1.60 are more than enough for me to avoid him in all leagues. Rating = 2

Salaries: $5000 FD, $2700 DS, $8650 DD, $4900 DK, $49000 FF, $13000 SS, $NA FTD

• Clay Buchholz – Buchholz held the Cubs to a single earned run in his last start, but he’s still not striking any batters out. He’s only struck out 10 batters over his last 4 starts combined. While Buchholz is the favorite here, being the favorite with a total this high doesn’t exactly mean a whole lot. There are better options in his price range. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6200 FD, $8904 DS, $11250 DD, $6000 DK, $54600 FF, $14200 SS, $11250 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Jose Abreu – Batters from both sides of the plate are in play tonight. Buchholz has given up a .364 wOBA to LH hitters and a .407 wOBA to RH hitters this season. Meanwhile, Abreu continues to mash anything that comes close to crossing the plate. He has an MLB-leading 27 HR’s already this season.

Additional Plays: Adam Eaton, Alexei Ramirez

Boston

David Ortiz – The Red Sox are in a similar position to the White Sox in that batters from both sides of the plate are in play. Carroll has given up a .397 wOBA to LH hitters and a .349 wOBA to RH batters. Ortiz has always hit RH pitching well, especially at home.

Additional Plays: Brock Holt, Dustin Pedroia, Mike Napoli

Kansas City at Tampa Bay

Kansas City					Tampa Bay
James Shields		Vegas Moneyline			Jake Odorizzi		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TBR (-110)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.248	0.654	0.295	20.9%	SP vs. Left	0.275	0.760	0.336	24.6%
SP vs. Right	0.268	0.727	0.326	19.7%	SP vs. Right	0.227	0.665	0.300	23.2%
Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KCR vs R		Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TBR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• James Shields – Shields will be on the bump for the Royals tonight as he faces his former team, the Rays. This is a bad time for the matchup though as Shields has struggled in his last 4 starts and the Rays offense has finally started to heat up. Shields’ price on DS may be too good to pass up (under $12k), but there are better options in his price range on the other major fantasy sites. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7800 FD, $11656 DS, $14000 DD, $7700 DK, $75000 FF, $20500 SS, $14000 FTD

• Jake Odorizzi – Odorizzi makes an interesting GPP play tonight. He has pitched well at home this season with a 2.70 ERA and a K/9 of 10.7. If you were to take out the name and just see those stats, you would want to target that pitcher every time. Don’t let the name scare you off of Odorizzi tonight. He has a nice matchup and he may see some run support as the Rays’ offense is finally starting to string together hits. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7000 FD, $16566 DS, $14200 DD, $7800 DK, $95000 FF, $21500 SS, $14200 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals are always an easy team to avoid in daily fantasy baseball. Their lineup lacks power and on a full slate, there are plenty of other options.

Tampa Bay

Matt Joyce – Joyce homered again last night against the Yankees and now has 10 hits and 4 HR’s over his last 6 games. Joyce draws a favorable matchup against James Shields who has given up a .350 wOBA to LH hitters this season.

Additional Plays: Ben Zobrist, Evan Longoria

Atlanta at NY Mets

Atlanta					NY Mets
Mike Minor		Vegas Moneyline			Daisuke Matsuzaka		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		ATL (-138)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.233	0.604	0.272	25.2%	SP vs. Left	0.195	0.629	0.300	23.9%
SP vs. Right	0.250	0.716	0.315	20.7%	SP vs. Right	0.188	0.586	0.296	19.3%
Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R		Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Mike Minor – Minor will face the Mets again tonight, only this time he will face them in Citi Field. Minor gave up 4 earned runs over 4 innings of work in his last start against the Mets. While that would typically point toward avoiding him, I still think he offers great value for the price. The Mets are ranked 14th in wOBA (.312) against LH pitching this season and Citi Field is one of the more pitcher-friendly parks in baseball. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7100 FD, $13143 DS, $13300 DD, $8000 DK, $72200 FF, $21800 SS, $13300 FTD

• Daisuke Matsuzaka – Matsuzaka has been terrific out of the bullpen this season (holding opponents to s .141 batting average), but he hasn’t had the same success as a starter (giving up a .228 batting average and a .322 wOBA). The Braves are prone to strikeouts, but I see Matsuzaka as an extremely risky play tonight. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5000 FD, $8608 DS, $11050 DD, $5300 DK, $64300 FF, $13000 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman – Freeman has a good track record against Matsuzaka and has a .381 wOBA against RH pitching this season. He’s also been swinging a hot bat with 13 hits and drawing 8 walks over his last 10 games.

Additional Plays: Jason Heyward

NY Mets

David Wright – Wright is back in the Mets’ lineup and is their best hitter against LH pitching. This season he is sporting a .425 wOBA against LH pitching and his price is cheap across the industry. Wright also has 2 HR’s off of Minor in his career.

Additional Plays: Eric Campbell

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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