MLB Grind Down: Monday, March 31 - Page 2

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-31 06:04:56

Boston vs. Baltimore

3:05 PM	Boston – ROAD					Baltimore – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.273	0.780	20.40%	0.68		0.264	0.755	18.10%	0.63
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.284	0.819	20.40%	0.57		0.253	0.718	18.50%	0.45
SP STATS	Lester – LHP					Tillman – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.27	3.67	7.48	11.13		1.22	3.70	7.65	11.07
LAST 14 DAYS	0.80	1.20	7.80	17.00		0.96	3.68	8.59	12.67
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	BOS vs R		BOS BvP			BAL vs L		BAL BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jon Lester – There was talk about Lester losing his spot in the rotation at one point last season. How long ago does that seem? In his last 13 starts of the season (excluding playoffs), Lester posted a 2.57 ERA with a K-rate of 8.1/9 IP. In 4 starts against the Orioles last season, Lester posted a 4.70 ERA with 23 K’s over 24 IP. The total of this game is set at 8.5 runs which is one of the highest on the schedule. There are so many other aces on the mound today that Lester is a less than appealing option. Rating = 5

• Chris Tillman – Considering all of the other aces on the mound today, Tillman’s K-rate of 7.6/9 IP looks pretty average at best. Tillman had an ERA over 4.00 last season at home and I’m not thrilled about his matchup against Victorino, Pedroia, Ortiz, Napoli, and Pierzynski. He will likely be one of the least owned pitchers in the industry though so if you want to throw him in on one of your tournament lineups, it may not be the worst idea. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

Boston

• David Ortiz – Ortiz has been hampered by a calf injury this Spring, but is expected to be in the lineup. I like the lefty/righty matchup for Ortiz and he hit 3 HR’s in 35 at-bats in Camden Yards last season. Not only that, but Tillman gave up an OPS of .729 to LH bats last season. Ortiz should be in for a big opening day.

• Shane Victorino – Now that Ellsbury is gone, Victorino will bat lead-off for the Red Sox. We should see him be more aggressive on the base pads this season after only stealing 21 bases last season. Victorino is 4/11 against Tillman in his career and hit for a .282 batting average against RH pitching last season. Victorino is currently questionable for Opening Day, but makes a solid play if he is in the lineup.

• Additional Plays: Daniel Nava, Mike Napoli

Baltimore

• Adam Jones – Jones is one of the few RH hitters that actually hits RH pitching better than left. That said, this is expected to be one of the higher scoring games on the schedule today and he does have a .303 batting average against Lester in 53 career at bats. Jones also hit for an .854 OPS last season at Camdem Yards.

• Matt Wieters – Wieters is a switch hitter, but most of his power comes from the right side of the plate. Last season he hit 21 XBH’s in only 163 at bats against LH pitching. Wieters has had some decent success against Lester in his career and is one of the top options at Catcher today.

• Additional Plays: Nelson Cruz, J.J. Hardy

Minnesota vs. Chicago White Sox

4:10 PM	Minnesota – ROAD					Chicago White Sox – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.241	0.698	22.20%	0.54		0.251	0.683	19.30%	0.51
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.253	0.706	22.80%	0.42		0.251	0.682	19.50%	0.39
SP STATS	Nolasco – RHP					Sale – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.20	3.55	7.35	10.16		1.05	2.97	9.52	13.97
LAST 14 DAYS	1.77	7.62	7.62	5.67		1.04	2.95	9.38	13.37
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	MIN vs L		MIN BvP			CHW vs R		CHW BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Ricky Nolasco – It’s hard to believe that Nolasco is the Twins Opening Day starter, but he is coming off of his best season in his career in which he posted a 3.55 ERA with a K-rate of 7.3/9 IP. Nolasco is a pretty large underdog today against the White Sox and has limited upside. You can do much better than Nolasco today. Rating = 4

• Chris Sale – Sale is the most expensive pitcher on a few of the major sites today and it’s for good reason. Sale has a terrific matchup against the Twins who scored the 6th fewest runs last season. Sale had one of the top K-rates in the majors last season averaging 9.52 K’s per 9 innings. Sale was excellent at home all season long with a 2.97 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. The Twins do not have much firepower and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sale throw a shut-out here. Without factoring in price, he is my top play of the day. Rating = 10

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

• Just in case you were thinking about taking a LH bat against Sale, think again! Sale held LH bats to a .135 batting average last season. RH bats didn’t fare much better as Sale held them to a .252 batting average with an OPS under .700. I could keep going, but I think you catch my drift. There should not be a single Twins’ batter in any of your lineups today.

• Additional Plays: None

• Chicago White Sox

• The White Sox lineup does not appear to be all that formidable, but Nolasco is one of the worst pitchers on the schedule today and I think you can find some value here. Nolasco gave up an OPS of .721 to LH batters last season. Alejandro De Aza and Adam Eaton are two cheap LH bats that you may want to target here. Eaton should bat leadoff will be batting right behind him. Both have nice speed and I could see them swiping a bag here.

• Additional Plays: Adam Dunn, Avisail Garcia

St. Louis vs. Cincinnati

4:10 PM	St. Louis – ROAD					Cincinnati – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.272	0.743	17.90%	0.61		0.249	0.718	20.10%	0.58
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.277	0.747	17.70%	0.47		0.254	0.730	19.80%	0.47
SP STATS	Wainwright – RHP					Cueto – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.08	2.98	8.21	13.44		1.09	3.02	7.78	10.12
LAST 14 DAYS	1.25	2.30	8.29	14.60		1.20	0.00	9.00	14.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	STL vs R		STL BvP			CIN vs R		CIN BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Adam Wainwright – This game features two very dominant pitchers, but the total is set at 7 runs which speaks to how friendly the Great American Ballpark is to hitters. Wainwright is coming off of a terrific season (2.98 ERA and a K-rate of 8.2/9 IP), but he did struggle against this Reds’ lineup. In 4 starts against them last season, Wainwright posted an ERA over 7 and only managed to pitch an average of 5.5 innings per contest. I wouldn’t put it past Wainwright to have a great game, but he has a less than appealing matchup against the Reds. Rating = 6

• Johnny Cueto – Cueto has looked great in Spring ball and says that he feels completely healthy. Cueto posted a 3.02 ERA last season with a K-rate of 7.8/9 IP. While a lot of these numbers will look similar for starting pitchers today, keep in mind that all of the teams have their aces on the mound. We will get into some much better matchups for batters here in a day or two. Cueto held opponents to a .186 batting average at home last season while keeping his ERA under 2.00. That said, the Cardinals offense is as formidable as ever and there are better plays on the board. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

• This Cardinals offense is as stacked as ever. While they have a lot of firepower, Cueto was extremely efficient at home last season with a 1.91 ERA while holding opponents to a .186 batting average. Cueto really doesn’t have any weakness when it comes to pitching vs. RH or LH bats. Matt Carpenter was an on base machine last year, he’s probably the only Cardinals’ hitter that I will have decent exposure to.

Cincinnati

• Jay Bruce – Even though the Great American Ballpark is one of the top hitter’s park in baseball, Bruce really struggled at home last season. He only for a .224 batting average. He did, however, hit 16 of his 30 HR’s at home and had 54 XBH’s last season against RH pitching. If you are a believer in PvB stats, they also support the Bruce play as Bruce is 11/28 with 4 XBH’s in his career against Wainwright.

• Billy Hamilton – If you played daily fantasy baseball last season, then there is no doubt that you know who Billy Hamilton is. You may not believe me when you first read this, but Hamilton had more stolen bases than he did hits. In fact, it was almost twice as many. Hamilton stole 13 bases last season and if he can get on base against Wainwright, watchout. Stolen bases are such a bonus in DFS because they alone are worth as much as a double on most sites.

• Additional Plays: Joey Votto

Toronto vs. Tampa Bay

4:10 PM	Toronto – ROAD					Tampa Bay – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.252	0.733	18.00%	0.62		0.262	0.748	18.70%	0.62
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.241	0.682	17.80%	0.42		0.250	0.734	19.00%	0.48
SP STATS	Dickey – RHP					Price – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.25	4.27	7.21	10.31		1.12	3.43	7.35	11.05
LAST 14 DAYS	1.10	3.98	9.40	12.03		1.15	2.79	8.01	10.03
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	TOR vs L		TOR BvP			TBR vs R		TBR BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• R.A. Dickey – Dickey really came crashing back down to Earth last season. After an incredible 2012 campaign with the Mets (and a huge contract thereafter), Dickey’s ERA increased by 1.5 runs, his K rate dropped dramatically, and he gave up more walks than he ever had in his career. Dickey is a knuckle-baller and typically batters can either hit the knuckle ball or they can’t. When Dickey has that knuckle ball dancing, he can strike out as many batters as anyone, but he is facing a tough Rays lineup here. Dickey is not a great cash game play, but he provides great upside as a GPP play. Rating = 6

• David Price – Price seems to be priced a little low across the industry. Not that I’m complaining, but I’m wondering if he will be one of the higher owned pitchers across the industry. Over the last 3 seasons, Price is holding his opponents to a .227 batting average at home with an ERA just over 3.00. Price is one of the biggest favorites on the board today and is averaging just under 9 K’s per 9 innings over the past few seasons. If you are looking for a large favorite that isn’t going to break your bank, Price is a terrific play. Rating = 9

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

• Jose Bautista – Joey Bats has had Price’s number over the last few season. He’s now faced Price 38 times and has 11 hits, 5 of those were HR’s. His OPS against Price is 1.22 which is terrific. I still give the edge to Price in this matchup, but if you are targeting a bat from the Rays, target the man with Bats in his nickname.

• Additional Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Melky Cabrera

Tampa Bay

• The Rays have not figured out the knuckle ball yet. Every player that has at least 5 at bats against Dickey on the Rays roster has a batting average below .250. Ben Zobrist, Evan Longoria, and Matt Joyce all have batting averages of less than .227 against him. That said, Dickey was one of the top pitchers to stack against last season thanks to his potential to get crushed. I probably won’t be using any Rays’ bats in my cash games, but may employ a mini-Rays stack in a few GPP’s.

Colorado vs. Miami

7:10 PM	Colorado – ROAD					Miami – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.264	0.735	19.80%	0.60		0.231	0.623	19.80%	0.43
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.268	0.748	19.70%	0.48		0.234	0.663	21.10%	0.38
SP STATS	De La Rosa – LHP					Fernandez – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.39	3.49	6.03	9.27		0.98	2.19	9.77	13.04
LAST 14 DAYS	3.50	18.00	4.50	-1.00		1.14	1.29	6.43	15.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	COL vs R		COL BvP			MIA vs L		MIA BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jorge De La Rosa – This game features the lowest total of the day. De La Rosa pitched well last season, but he is not an overpowering pitcher and has the lowest K-rate of any starting pitcher on the schedule today. This Miami lineup can certainly be beat, but De La Rosa just doesn’t provide that upside that you are looking for from a starting pitcher. He’s a cheap option, but has struggled away from Coors Field (surprisingly). De La Rosa is very solid against LH bats, but did give up a batting average of .286 to RH bats last season. It’s going to be hard for him to pick up a win with Fernandez as the opposing pitcher. Rating = 3

• Jose Fernandez – Fernandez is a fiery young player that was involved in quite a few scuffles last season. He certainly wears his emotions on his sleeve and does not shy away from controversy. Fernandez is looking to stake his claim as the best pitcher in baseball this season after posting a 2.19 ERA and a K-rate of 9.8/9 IP last season. The Rockies have a few big bats in their lineup, but they are a much different team away from Coors Field. I will have a heavy dose of Fernandez in my cash games. Rating = 9

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

This game is not expected to be high scoring. The Rockies are big underdogs in a game that has the total set at 6.5 runs. Fernandez is one of the best pitchers in the game and has one of the best K-rates in the majors. I will be avoiding all things Rockies today. Sorry Tulo, that means you too.

• Additional Plays: None

Miami

• Giancarlo Stanton – This Marlins lineup looks like it may struggle to score runs once again. They still have Stanton though who has had incredible power against LH pitching. De La Rosa gave up all 11 of his HR’s last season to RH bats and Stanton has an OPS of 1.03 against LH pitching over the last 3 seasons.

• Marcell Ozuna – Ozuna is a very sneaky play today. He came onto the scene last season and really played well for the Marlins. In fact, he was their best hitter for the second half of the season. Ozuna batted .318 against LH pitching this season and should be right in the middle of their lineup. Really solid play today if the price is right.

• Additional Plays: None

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