MLB Grind Down: Thursday, April 3rd - Page 2
Minnesota at Chicago White Sox
| Minnesota | Chicago White Sox | ||||||||
| Phil Hughes | Vegas Moneyline | Jose Quintana | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CWS (-140) | LEFT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.298 | 0.859 | 0.376 | 19.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.260 | 0.713 | 0.315 | 20.4% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.286 | 0.776 | 0.342 | 18.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.242 | 0.679 | 0.304 | 19.4% |
| Batter Splits | MIN BvP  | MIN vs L | Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CHW vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Phil Hughes – Hughes is coming off of a terrible season with the Yankees, but some pitchers just can’t pitch in New York. Look at the success that A.J. Burnett had after leaving the Yankees. We will have to wait and see if Hughes can have a rebound season. Hughes is a small under-dog today against the White Sox. The last image of Hughes that is stuck in my mind is him getting crushed over and over again. These White Sox bats are dirt cheap across the industry and could make for a nice value stack. Rating = 4
- Jose Quintana – Quintana was solid for the White Sox last season and makes a nice play today against the Twins. Quintans posted a 3.51 ERA over 33 starts while striking out 7.5 batters per 9 innings. Quintana held RH batters to a .304 wOBA last season and makes a terrific value play at pitcher tonight. his price is cheap across the industry. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
- Trevor Plouffe – Plouffe has always hit well against LH pitchers. Last season he hit for a .300 average against LH pitching and 12 of his 33 hits went for extra bases. He posted an OPS of .826 against lefties and he is flying under the radar today.
- Additional Plays: Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer
Chicago White Sox
- Jose Abreu – Abreu is off to a hot as he has already reached base 5 times in 10 plate appearances. Hughes struggled against LH and RH hitters last season and Abreu should come up to bat with runners in scoring position. He is still cheap across the industry.
- Adam Dunn – I can’t believe I’m recommending Dunn only 4 days into the season, but I like the matchup and he homered yesterday. Dunn is not recommended on sites that negate for strike-outs, but makes a nice value play on sites where all outs are created equal. Dunn makes a nice tournament play against Hughes who gave up a .376 wOBA to LH bats last season.
- Additional Plays: Adam Eaton, Alejandro De Aza
San Francisco at Arizona
| San Francisco | Arizona | ||||||||
| Tim Lincecum | Vegas Moneyline | Bronson Arroyo | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | ARI (-116) | RIGHT | 9.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.235 | 0.656 | 0.304 | 24.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.295 | 0.854 | 0.368 | 12.1% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.260 | 0.738 | 0.334 | 21.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.219 | 0.590 | 0.269 | 18.2% |
| Batter Splits | SFG BvP | SFG vs R | Batter Splits | ARI BvP | ARI vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Tim Lincecum / Ryan Vogelsong – It sounds like Lincecum is dealing with some food poisoning and if he isn’t able to pitch today, Vogelsong would draw the start. Neither of which are recommended fantasy options today though. Both struggled on the road last season and will have a tough matchup against the D-Backs who are a great hitting team at home. The total is set at 9 runs which is tied for the highest on the schedule today. Rating = 3
- Bronson Arroyo – Arroyo is coming over from the Reds and he will make his D-Backs debut tonight. Vegas doesn’t have much confidence in him though as he is a small favorite with the high total. Arroyo posted a 3.79 ERA last season, but had a low K-rate of only 5.5/9 IP. I’m not targeting either of these pitchers today, but batters from both sides should be targeted heavily. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
San Francisco
- Brandon Belt – Last season Arroyo gave up a .368 wOBA to LH batters compared to a .269 wOBA to RH batters. That’s almost a full 100 percentage points higher. Target the LH bats of the Giants today starting with Brandon Belt who has already homered twice this season.
- Pablo Sandoval – Sandoval is a switch hitter so he should be able to take advantage of Arroyo’s splits. The Panda is off to a slow start, but there aren’t many 3B options today and he’s pretty cheap across the industry.
- Additional Plays: Buster Posey, Angel Pagan
Arizona
- Paul Goldschmidt – Goldschmidt has great power against all pitching (especially LH pitching) and draws a terrific matchup against Lincecum who has struggled on the road over the last two years. Lincecum gave up a .334 wOBA to RH hitters and Goldy is my “Dong of the Day” as he already has 5 HR’s off of Lincecum in his career.
- Aaron Hill – I always seem to be on the wrong side of Hill, but he has a very nice matchup against Lincecum who has struggled against RH batters. Hill has power and should be involved in the run production tonight for the D-Backs.
- Additional Plays: Gerardo Parra, Mark Trumbo, Martin Prade
Boston at Baltimore
| Boston | Baltimore | ||||||||
| Felix Doubront | Vegas Moneyline | Wei-Yin Chen | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | BAL (-110) | LEFT | 9.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.247 | 0.641 | 0.290 | 22.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.223 | 0.679 | 0.303 | 20.0% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.267 | 0.751 | 0.336 | 18.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.286 | 0.780 | 0.342 | 17.6% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs L | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Felix Doubront – Doubront struggled on the road last season with an ERA close to 5.00. He has really struggled agaisnt RH bats (.336 wOBA last season) and was crushed by this Orioles lineup last season. In 3 games, he posted an ERA over 7 while giving up a .302 batting average. He is not a recommended option tonight. Rating = 3
- Wei-Yin Chen – Chen is a very serviceable pitcher, but he has a low K-rate and posted an ERA just over 4 last season. Chen typically doesn’t have those games where he gets rocked hard, but that wasn’t the case with him and the Red Sox last season. In 4 starts against them, he posted an ERA over 7 while giving up 33 hits over 21 innings of work. Rating = 3
Batter Grind Down
Boston
- Dustin Pedroia – Pedroia has always crushed LH pitching (.345 average last season) and has great numbers against Chen. In 19 at bats, he has 11 hits, 4 of which went for extra bases. As long as the weather is clear for this game, a mini Red-Sox stack looks awfully tempting tonight.
- Additional Plays: Mike Napoli, David Ortiz, Daniel Nava, Jhonny Gomes
Baltimore
- Nelson Cruz – Cruz posted an OPS over .800 against LH pitching last season and he already has 2 HR’s as a member of the Orioles. He is a terrific play tonight against Doubront who is giving up a .336 wOBA to RH batters.
- Additional Plays: Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy, Chris Davis
Toronto at Tampa Bay
| Toronto | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
| Brandon Morrow | Vegas Moneyline | Chris Archer | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TBR (-147) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.301 | 1.014 | 0.428 | 16.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.261 | 0.784 | 0.350 | 20.4% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.268 | 0.697 | 0.311 | 18.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.176 | 0.440 | 0.211 | 17.5% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Brandon Morrow – Morrow is a pitcher that has nice upside thanks to his ability to strike batters out. The problem is that he is extremely inconsistent and has struggled with his command in the Spring. To say that the Rays have owned Morrow over the last few seasons is an understatement. This entire Rays lineup has great numbers against Morrow and I’ll be avoiding him tonight. Rating = 4
- Chris Archer – Archer makes the much better play of these two pitchers. Archer posted a 3.22 ERA last season with a K-rate of 7.1/9 IP. Archer has been terrific against RH hitters, holding them to a .221 wOBA last season. The Blue Jays have a few decent LH bats, but if Archer can get through them, he mow through the rest of this lineup just like he did last season (ERA under 2.00 against TOR). Rating = 8
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
- If you are targeting any batters here, make sure that they are LH hitters. Archer is extremely efficient against RH bats.
- Additional Plays: Adam Lind, Melky Cabrera
Tampa Bay
- Desmond Jennings – Sometimes you see a stat that is just too hard to ignore. That’s the case with Jennings tonight. In 13 career at-bats against Morrow, he has 7 hits including 4 HR’s.
- Matt Joyce – Morrow was hit hard by LH bats last season. He gave up a .428 wOBA to lefties and it may not be a bad idea to stack the cheap LH batters of the Rays tonight.
- Additional Plays: David DeJesus, Ben Zobrist, James Loney
NY Yankees at Houston
| NY Yankees | Houston | ||||||||
| Ivan Nova | Vegas Moneyline | Brett Oberholtzer | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | NYY (-140) | LEFT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.264 | 0.647 | 0.310 | 17.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.280 | 0.733 | 0.325 | 12.9% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.251 | 0.661 | 0.306 | 22.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.219 | 0.617 | 0.271 | 16.3% |
| Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs L | Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Ivan Nova – Nova will look to continue his stellar pitching from last season. He posted a 3.10 ERA over 20 starts and had a very respectable K-rate of 7.5/9 IP. This Astros offense has started off well this season, but they are playing over their heads and I feel like they will come crashing back down to Earth tonight. If the Yankee bats can heat up and give Nova some run support, he should be in line for a win. Rating = 8
- Brett Oberholtzer – If the Yankees keep swinging like they have in the first two games of this series, Oberholtzer could make a solid GPP play. He posted an ERA under 3.00 last season and is a talented young lefty. That said, Oberholtzer is a big underdog tonight and these Yankee bats can’t stay dormant for much longer. He’s better served as a GPP play. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
New York Yankees
- Mark Teixeira – Teixeira’s power comes from the right side of the plate. He has an OPS over .900 over the last 3 years against LH pitching and I think he jump starts this Yankee lineup tonight.
- Additional Plays: Carlos Beltran, Alfonso Soriano, Derek Jeter
Houston
- Dexter Fowler makes a decent play as he has been red hot to start the season and is still extremely cheap across the board. I’d much rather target the Nova side of this matchup though.
- Additional Plays: None
Seattle at Oakland
| Seattle | Oakland | ||||||||
| Roenis Elias | Vegas Moneyline | Jesse Chavez | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | OAK (-125) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | 0.246 | 0.610 | 0.297 | 21.2% | ||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | 0.212 | 0.587 | 0.270 | 23.4% | ||||
| Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs R | Batter Splits | OAK BvP | OAK vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Roenis Elias – Elias will be making his major league debut tonight. He has looked good during Spring ball, but once you get into the regular season, it’s a bit of a different story. Vegas has him as a slight underdog tonight, but you want to be able to count on your starting pitcher in cash games and I’m just not sure that’s the case with Elias tonight. He could make for an interesting contrarian play in a GPP though. Rating = 4
- Jesse Chavez – Chavez posted an ERA just under 4.00 out of the bullpen last season, but will draw the start tonight for the short-handed A’s. Chavez had a K-rate just under 9/9 IP, but I’m not sure that K-rate will hold up as a starter. This Mariners offense has looked good so far this season and with his limited upside, I’ll be avoiding Chavez tonight. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
Seattle
- Robinson Cano – Cano is off to a hot start as a member of the Mariners. He is 5/11 with a couple of runs. Cano had a .329 average with an OPS of .969 against RH pitching last season. He should be considered the top 2B play of the day.
- Additional Plays: Brad Miller
Oakland
- Yoenis Cespedes – Cespedes hit for a .280 against LH pitching with 11 of his 26 HR’s last season coming off of lefties. Cespedes also has nice speed and can steal bases. I think people will be overlooking this game due to the low total, but I’m a fan of batters from both lineups.
- Additional Plays: Jed Lowrie