MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, July 1st Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-07-01 20:54:40

Chicago Cubs at Boston

Chicago Cubs					Boston
Edwin Jackson		Vegas Moneyline			Clay Buchholz		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		BOS (-160)			RIGHT		9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.299	0.819	0.368	19.4%	SP vs. Left	0.238	0.654	0.298	20.3%
SP vs. Right	0.264	0.731	0.327	18.1%	SP vs. Right	0.268	0.703	0.313	20.4%
Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R		Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Edwin Jackson – Jackson has been one of the most inconsistent fantasy options all season long. He’ll throw a shutout one night and then follow it up by getting rocked in his next outing. Even though this Red Sox offense is not what it used to be in the past, I’m going to avoid Jackson tonight. He’s a sizable underdog in a game that features a high run total. The Sox have also hit him well in the past. Rating = 3

Salaries: $6500 FD, $10263 DS, $12400 DD, $6500 DK, $56800 FF, $17800 SS, $12400 FTD

• Clay Buchholz – Buchholz was decent in his first start back from the DL, but the strikeouts are still missing from his repertoire. On the season, Buchholz is sporting a 6.71 ERA with only 41 K’s in 11 starts. That means that he’s averaging less than 4 K’s per start. Until he can prove that he can get back to his 2013 form, I will continue avoiding him in daily fantasy leagues. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6200 FD, $12229 DS, $11250 DD, $5700 DK, $51800 FF, $14200 SS, $9850 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Starlin Castro – Is it just me or does is seem hard to target the Cubs even when they are in a favorable matchup? That may change tonight as Castro is in a terrific spot. Buchholz has given up a .401 wOBA to RHB’s this season and Castro has a .354 wOBA against RH pitching.

Additional Plays: Anthony Rizzo, Luis Valbuena

Boston

David Ortiz – Ortiz has a lot of things in his favor tonight. First off, Jackson has given up a .391 wOBA to LHB’s. Second, Ortiz has always crushed RH pitching, especially in the friendly confines of Fenway Park. And finally, Oritz has had Jackson’s number going 9/20 with 2 HR’s off of him in his career.

Additional Plays: Brock Holt, Dustin Pedroia

NY Mets at Atlanta

NY Mets					Atlanta
Daisuke Matsuzaka		Vegas Moneyline			Mike Minor		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		ATL (-178)			LEFT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.195	0.629	0.300	23.9%	SP vs. Left	0.233	0.604	0.272	25.2%
SP vs. Right	0.188	0.586	0.296	19.3%	SP vs. Right	0.250	0.716	0.315	20.7%
Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs L		Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Daisuke Matsuzaka – Matsuzaka has been terrific out of the bullpen this season, but that hasn’t translated into success as a starter. He has an ERA close to 5.00 on the road this season and is coming off of one of his worst outings of the season. Dice-K can be very erratic at times and gave up 4 walks in his last start which is red flag. Even though the Braves have struggled against RH pitching this season, I’ll be avoiding Dice-K in all leagues. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5000 FD, $10995 DS, $11050 DD, $5500 DK, $67000 FF, $13000 SS, $NA FTD

• Mike Minor – Dollar for dollar, Minor is one of the best values on the board tonight. He is extremely cheap on FD and is affordable on both DS and DK as well. He draws a terrific matchup against the Mets who are ranked 19th against LH pitching this season. Not only that, but the Mets will likely be without David Wright who is their best hitter against southpaws. Minor has great upside in this matchup and should be targeted in all leagues. Rating = 8

Salaries: $7300 FD, $16879 DS, $14050 DD, $8300 DK, $68500 FF, $22000 SS, $14050 FTD

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

I’ll be avoiding all Mets’ batters tonight. The Mets have made it tough on a couple of LH pitchers that they have faced recently (Kazmir & Wood), but it doesn’t sound like Wright is going to play and he’s really the only option that would stand out here.

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman – Sure, the sample size is small, but Freeman has more RBI’s off of Dice-K than he does at-bats. Freeman has an impressive .377 wOBA against RH pitching this season and should be able to capitalize if Dice-K’s command is off like it was in his last start.

Additional Plays: Jason Heyward, Justin Upton

Philadelphia at Miami

Philadelphia					Miami
A.J. Burnett		Vegas Moneyline			Henderson Alvarez		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		MIA (-130)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.267	0.763	0.354	19.7%	SP vs. Left	0.273	0.704	0.315	13.6%
SP vs. Right	0.213	0.569	0.256	26.8%	SP vs. Right	0.240	0.587	0.273	15.3%
Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R		Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• A.J. Burnett – Burnett makes a great tournament play tonight. On the season he owns a 3.89 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP and a K/9 of 6.9. He is facing a Marlins’ offense that has struck out more than any team in baseball this season. Burnett can also afford to be a little more aggressive as he has the mammoth Marlins Park at his back. He may not be the best cash game play on single-pitcher sites, but is one of the better tournament plays tonight. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7400 FD, $15908 DS, $13650 DD, $8100 DK, $83400 FF, $22400 SS, $13650 FTD

• Henderson Alvarez – Alvarez continues to fly under the fantasy radar despite posting a 2.32 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP this season. Even better, Alvarez has posted a 1.44 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP. His strikeout rate leaves much to be desired, but as long as he keeps pitching the way that he has, he will continue to make a nice play at pitcher. He draws a great matchup tonight against the Phillies who are ranked 28th against RH pitching. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7600 FD, $15203 DS, $13450 DD, $7500 DK, $94100 FF, $21900 SS, $13450 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Chase Utley – Utley is really the only Phillies’ bat that I will have any exposure to tonight. He continues to mash RH pitching (.351 wOBA this season) and his price is always affordable. Alvarez has much better against LHB’s this season, but has struggled against lefties throughout his career.

Additional Plays: None

Miami

Derek Dietrich – Dietrich hasn’t hit for average this season, but has great power against RH pitching. With Burnett’s struggles vs. LH hitters combined with Dietrich’s power against RH pitching, he could make a great sleeper at 2B tonight.

Additional Plays: Giancarlo Stanton

Seattle at Houston

Seattle					Houston
Hisashi Iwakuma		Vegas Moneyline			Jarred Cosart		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		SEA (-115)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.230	0.616	0.271	18.9%	SP vs. Left	0.211	0.603	0.278	19.2%
SP vs. Right	0.216	0.629	0.279	23.1%	SP vs. Right	0.276	0.733	0.332	10.4%
Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs R		Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Hisashi Iwakuma – Iwakuma has struggled in each of his last 2 outings. He’s given up a combined 10 earned runs in those starts while only striking out 8 batters. I expect a nice bounce back outing from him tonight though. As a team, the Astros are ranked 24th against RH pitching with a 23.9% strikeout rate which is the 2nd highest in baseball. Iwakuma’s strikeouts have been down this season, but I think he matches or exceeds his season high of 7 K’s. Rating = 7

Salaries: $8000 FD, $17533 DS, $16450 DD, $8600 DK, $95400 FF, $25800 SS, $15550 FTD

• Jarred Cosart – Cosart got off to a rough start this season, but has posted a 2.70 ERA since the start of June. He’s not one of the higher strikeout pitchers in baseball, but he has shown the ability to strike out 8+ batters in a single outing. Tonight he faces the Mariners who are ranked 20th against RH pitching this season. Rating = 6

Salaries: $6700 FD, $13003 DS, $12650 DD, $6800 DK, $95400 FF, $18600 SS, $12650 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Robinson Cano – For the first time in a Mariners’ uniform, Cano has homered in back to back games. We have all been waiting for his power and maybe it’s finally starting to show. Cano has a .365 wOBA against RH pitching and a decent matchup against Cosart.

Additional Plays: Kyle Seager

Houston

Outside of George Springer as a GPP play, I will be avoiding all Astros’ hitters tonight against Iwakuma. He’s held both LHB’s and RHB’s under a .280 wOBA since the start of 2013 and I’ll have a heavy dose of Iwakuma in my lineups tonight.

LA Angels at Chicago White Sox

LA Angels					Chicago White Sox
Jered Weaver		Vegas Moneyline			Scott Carroll		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		LAA (-160)			RIGHT		9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.237	0.665	0.299	19.6%	SP vs. Left	0.330	0.910	0.402	5.3%
SP vs. Right	0.227	0.660	0.295	17.3%	SP vs. Right	0.310	0.749	0.360	15.0%
Batter Splits	LAA BvP		LAA vs R		Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CHW vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jered Weaver – Weaver will start the second game of the double-header today against the White Sox. Weaver has been terrific at Angels Stadium, but has struggled to find that same success on the road. His ERA and WHIP on the road are up, while his K-rate is down. While the White Sox do strike out often as a team, they have been very good against RH pitching this season with a team .325 wOBA. At Weaver’s price, I think there are better options. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7600 FD, $15479 DS, $15550 DD, $8600 DK, $99400 FF, $23000 SS, $15250 FTD

• Scott Carroll – Carroll was not a recommended fantasy option earlier in the season and he’s not a recommended fantasy option now. He is sporting a 4.76 ERA on the season and faces a tough Angels’ lineup that is ranked 9th against RH pitching this season with a team .322 wOBA. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5000 FD, $7030 DS, $8650 DD, $5000 DK, $72400 FF, $13000 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Kole Calhoun – Even without factoring in price, Calhoun is one of my favorite plays tonight. The ballpark favors LHB’s and Carroll has given up a .402 wOBA to lefties this season. I should also mention that Calhoun has 14 hits (5 XBH’s) in his last 10 games.

Additional Plays: Josh Hamilton, Mike Trout, Erick Aybar

Chicago White Sox

Jose Abreu (GPP) – I think there are better options at 1B for cash games, but I’ll certainly have some exposure to Abreu in GPP’s. He has terrific power against RH pitching (.420 wOBA) and has multi-HR upside. Weaver on the road doesn’t scare me one bit and he won’t scare Abreu either.

Additional Plays: Adam Eaton

MLB Grind Down Page 2 – Page 3

Have a Question for Notorious about Today’s Games? Check out Expert Chat

Monday through Friday For FanDuel, DraftStreet and DraftKings Incentives Members – 5:30 PM EST