MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, June 10th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-06-10 19:56:27

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

San Diego at Philadelphia

San Diego					Philadelphia
Ian Kennedy		Vegas Moneyline			A.J. Burnett		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		SDP (-105)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.245	0.755	0.333	24.6%	SP vs. Left	0.274	0.775	0.361	20.1%
SP vs. Right	0.258	0.713	0.327	20.7%	SP vs. Right	0.212	0.568	0.256	27.5%
Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SDP vs R		Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Ian Kennedy – Kennedy has pitched well this season and it’s been nice to see him put up similar road numbers as hes at home. On the season he has a 3.39 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and a K/9 of 10.1. Tonight he faces a Phillies’ offense that is ranked 27th against RH pitching with a team .289 wOBA. He offers nice upside for a pitcher in his price range. Rating = 7

Salaries: $7000 FD, $17575 DS, $15600 DD, $9000 DK, $108000 FF, $27700 SS, $13100 FTD

• A.J. Burnett – Burnett has pitched well at home this season. In 6 starts at Citizens Bank Park, Burnett has a 3.72 ERA while averaging a strikeout per inning pitched. You have to love the matchup for him tonight as he faces the Padres who are ranked dead last against RH pitching with a team .277 wOBA. The Padres are also striking out at a 22.9% clip against righties. Rating = 7

Salaries: $7000 FD, $15602 DS, $13100 DD, $7400 DK, $62400 FF, $18000 SS, $13100 FTD

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Seth Smith – Smith has been terrific against RH pitching this season with a .402 wOBA. The matchup lines up well for him too as Burnett has given up a .361 wOBA to LHB’s.

Additional Plays: Everth Cabrera

Philadelphia

Chase Utley – This pick is pretty obvious, but it doesn’t mean that it’s not a good one. Kennedy has given up a .333 wOBA to LHB’s this season and Utley has a .384 wOBA against RH pitching.

Additional Plays: Jimmy Rollins, Carlos Ruiz

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh

Chicago Cubs					Pittsburgh
Travis Wood		Vegas Moneyline			Francisco Liriano		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		PIT (-158)			LEFT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.196	0.543	0.256	21.3%	SP vs. Left	0.184	0.479	0.221	26.6%
SP vs. Right	0.243	0.686	0.311	17.1%	SP vs. Right	0.244	0.687	0.310	23.6%
Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs L		Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Travis Wood – Wood owns a 5.04 ERA on the season with a 1.41 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.9. Most of his stats suggest that he is pitching better than his ERA indicates. Tonight he faces the Pirates who are ranked 16th against LH pitching. He’s not one of my favorite plays tonight, but he’s also not the worst play either. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6900 FD, $12557 DS, $11050 DD, $6700 DK, $75800 FF, $15700 SS, $11900 FTD

• Francisco Liriano – Liriano is sporting a 4.54 ERA on the season, but his FIP and WHIP both suggest that he is pitching better than his ERA indicates. This is a terrific time to buy low on Liriano. Not only does he still have a great K-rate, but he faces a Cubs’ offense that strikes out at a 24.4% clip against LH pitching. I’m going to have a heavy dose of Liriano sprinkled throughout my lineups. Rating = 7

Salaries: $6900 FD, $15529 DS, $13200 DD, $7700 DK, $74900 FF, $20600 SS, $12300 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Starlin Castro – Castro is having a nice bounce back season after a disappointing 2013. He has a .338 wOBA against LH pitching this season and Liriano has given up a much higher wOBA to RHB’s than he has to LHB’s.

Additional Plays: Junior Lake

Pittsburgh

Andrew McCutchen – Cutch has a terrific matchup tonight. He owns a .438 wOBA against LH pitching this season and has been red hot with 12 hits (4 HR’s) over his last 8 games.

Additional Plays: Starling Marte, Jordy Mercer

Boston at Baltimore

Boston					Baltimore
Brandon Workman		Vegas Moneyline			Chris Tillman		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		BAL (-115)			RIGHT		9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.244	0.670	0.299	21.4%	SP vs. Left	0.256	0.748	0.333	18.7%
SP vs. Right	0.264	0.728	0.327	26.4%	SP vs. Right	0.236	0.728	0.321	21.9%
Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R		Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Brandon Workman – Workman has been decent this season, but he has yet to pitch more than 5 and a third innings in any of his starts. That really limits his upside. It also doesn’t help that he is facing an Orioles’ offense that is ranked 7th against RH pitching with a team .325 wOBA. Rating = 3

Salaries: $4200 FD, $10019 DS, $9950 DD, $5800 DK, $65200 FF, $13000 SS, $NA FTD

• Chris Tillman – Tillman’s overall numbers this season leave much to be desired, but he has pitched well at home. In his 4 home starts, he has posted a 2.78 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and a K/9 of 8.6. He is certainly a risky option, but I think he could make a nice play in some of these big tournaments as the Red Sox have been very average against RH pitching. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6100 FD, $10441 DS, $11500 DD, $6300 DK, $56300 FF, $15000 SS, $10800 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Boston

David Ortiz – Tillman has given up a .333 wOBA to LHB’s this season and Ortiz has always had terrific power against RH pitching. Ortiz has 2 HR’s in his last 5 games and owns a .354 wOBA against righties this season.

Additional Plays: Mike Napoli

Baltimore

Adam Jones – Jones is on a tear right now. Over his last 7 games, he has 14 hits and 4 HR’s. He has typically been an auto-play against LH pitching this season, but has been good against RH pitching as well.

Additional Plays: Chris Davis, Manny Machado, Nelson Cruz

Minnesota at Toronto

Minnesota					Toronto
Kevin Correia		Vegas Moneyline			J.A. Happ		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TOR (-166)			LEFT		9.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.299	0.812	0.356	12.6%	SP vs. Left	0.292	0.802	0.357	20.0%
SP vs. Right	0.308	0.806	0.353	12.8%	SP vs. Right	0.244	0.735	0.327	17.9%
Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs L		Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Kevin Correia – Correia is not a recommended fantasy option. On the season he has a 6.11 ERA with a K/9 around 5.0. He has limited upside and faces the Blue Jays who are the #1 team in baseball against RH pitching this season. Rating = 2

Salaries: $4700 FD, $7676 DS, $9350 DD, $5500 DK, $45100 FF, $13000 SS, $9500 FTD

• J.A. Happ – Happ has a much higher K-rate than Correia, but should also be avoided tonight. The Rogers Centre is one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball and the total for this game is set at 9.5. runs. While the Twins haven’t been great against LH pitching this season, Happ is not recommended outside of a GPP play. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6100 FD, $14203 DS, $11700 DD, $6600 DK, $91500 FF, $15900 SS, $10400 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Brian Dozier – Dozier has as much upside as any 2B tonight. He has a .331 wOBA against LH pitching this season and offers a nice combination of both power and speed.

Additional Plays: Trevor Plouffe, Josh Willingham

Toronto

Edwin Encarnacion – E5 hit another HR last night to make it 20 on the season. He draws a terrific matchup against Correia who has given up a .356+ wOBA to both LHB’s and RHB’s this season. Don’t be afraid to use a few Blue Jays’ bats in your lineup tonight.

Additional Plays: Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, Jose Bautista, Adam Lind, Juan Francisco

St. Louis at Tampa Bay

St. Louis					Tampa Bay
Adam Wainwright		Vegas Moneyline			Jake Odorizzi		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		STL (-141)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.230	0.605	0.274	24.5%	SP vs. Left	0.291	0.799	0.352	24.2%
SP vs. Right	0.236	0.592	0.266	22.4%	SP vs. Right	0.239	0.679	0.308	24.7%
Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R		Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TBR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Adam Wainwright – Wainwright has had a few bad outings, but they have been a slight blemish on a terrific season. In 13 starts this season he has a 2.31 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP with a K/9 of 8.6. Wainwright is in play once again as he faces a Rays’ offense that is ranked 21st against RH pitching this season. Rating = 9

Salaries: $10900 FD, $24010 DS, $21450 DD, $12400 DK, $146400 FF, $32100 SS, $20000 FTD

• Jake Odorizzi – Odorizzi’s ERA and WHIP aren’t great this season, but he has an impressive K/9 of 11.2 and he has pitched well at home. While I will not be using him as a cash game play, I do like him as a tournament play. He’s cheap and has double-digit strikeout potential. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5500 FD, $13333 DS, $12500 DD, $7300 DK, $58200 FF, $17400 SS, $11300 FTD

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Matt Carpenter – Carpenter is finally looking like he did in 2013. He has 15 hits over his last 10 games and draws a nice matchup against Odorizzi who has given up a .352 wOBA to LHB’s this season.

Additional Plays: Jhonny Peralta

Tampa Bay

There aren’t any recommended Rays’ hitters tonight. Wainwright has held both LHB’s and RHB’s under a .275 wOBA this season.

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2