MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 14th - Page 2
Tampa Bay at Seattle
| Tampa Bay | Seattle | ||||||||
| Jake Odorizzi | Vegas Moneyline | Brandon Maurer | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TBR (-104) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.309 | 0.863 | 0.377 | 20.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.333 | 0.938 | 0.404 | 14.2% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.250 | 0.716 | 0.318 | 22.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.298 | 0.773 | 0.353 | 18.5% |
| Batter Splits | TBR BvP  | TBR vs R | Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jake Odorizzi – Odorizzi is a high strikeout pitcher (K/9 of 10.4 this season), but he has only pitched more than 5 innings in 1 start this season. He really struggles the 2nd time through the lineup and even though this Mariners’ offense isn’t great against RH pitching, I think there is more downside than upside with Odorizzi. Rating = 4
Brandon Maurer – Through 4 starts this season, Maurer has a 6.20 ERA with a 1.69 WHIP and only 10 K’s over 20 innings of work. Maurer gave up 14 hits in his last outing and can not be trusted in fantasy leagues until he can become a more consistent pitcher game to game. Rating = 3
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
Matt Joyce – Maurer has given up a .404 wOBA to LH batters in his career and Joyce looks like a great value play in the OF. He is batting .305 against RH pitching this season wiith 10 XBH’s.
Additional Plays: Evan Longoria, Desmond Jennings
Seattle
Robinson Cano – Odorizzi has given up a .377 wOBA to LH batters which really bodes well for this Mariners’ lineup that is littered with LH bats. Cano has only hit 1 HR this season, but I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that Cano hits his 2nd HR of the season today.
Additional Plays: Kyle Seager, Dustin Ackley
Atlanta at San Francisco
| Atlanta | San Francisco | ||||||||
| Julio Teheran | Vegas Moneyline | Madison Bumgarner | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | SFG (-121) | LEFT | 6.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.256 | 0.733 | 0.326 | 17.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.183 | 0.508 | 0.231 | 35.7% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.208 | 0.562 | 0.263 | 25.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.228 | 0.627 | 0.289 | 21.9% |
| Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs L | Batter Splits | SFG BvP | SFG vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Julio Teheran – Teheran has been close to un-hittable this season. Through 8 starts he has a 1.71 ERA with a 0.81 WHIP and a K/9 of 6.5. I expect his K-rate to go up as the season progresses. He’s struck out 16 batters in his last two starts. He faces a Giants’ offense that is ranked 25th against RH pitching. The only issue with Teheran is that he see little to no run support. Rating = 9
Madison Bumgarner – Bumgarner is also having a terrific season with a 2.83 ERA and a K/9 of 10.3. The total for this game is set at 6.5 runs, but I have a hard time seeing these teams hitting that total with these pitchers on the mound. Bumgarner has a favorable matchup against the Braves who have struck out the 8th most times of any team this season. Rating = 8
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta / San Francisco
This game has the lowest run total on the board today and I expect this to be a pitcher’s duel. I will not be targeting any batters from either the Braves or the Giants.
Cleveland at Toronto
| Cleveland | Toronto | ||||||||
| Corey Kluber | Vegas Moneyline | Dustin McGowan | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CLE (-103) | RIGHT | 9.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.282 | 0.740 | 0.329 | 23.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.233 | 0.726 | 0.335 | 15.6% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.265 | 0.683 | 0.307 | 23.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.239 | 0.674 | 0.309 | 20.3% |
| Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Corey Kluber – Kluber has really pitched well at home over the last 2 seasons with an ERA under 2.50. That’s not the same story on the road though as his ERA jumps to 4.95. He is an extremely high strikeout pitcher, but faces a very tough Blue Jays lineup in the very hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. He is a very risky option that makes more sense as a GPP play than a cash game play. Rating = 5
Dustin McGowan – McGowan has a 4.63 ERA on the season with only 22 K’s over 35 innings of work. He has only pitched more than 5 innings in 3 of his 7 starts which really limits his upside. This game has one of the highest totals on the board and McGowan is an easy pitcher to avoid in all leagues. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
Cleveland
Michael Brantley – Since the start of last season, McGowan has given up a .335 wOBA to LH batters. Brantley has great power against RH pitching and makes a terrific option in the OF. You have to pay up for him, but he has been extremely productive this season.
Additional Plays: Michael Bourn, Lonnie Chisenhall, David Murphy
Toronto
Jose Reyes – Kluber’s weaknesses are pitching on the road and pitching against LH batters. Reyes has both of those in his favor tonight. Reyes has 6 hits in his last 4 games and has a very affordable price tag across the industry. It’s also nice to see him finally stealing some bases.
Additional Plays: Melky Cabrera, Adam Lind, Juan Francisco
San Diego at Cincinnati
| San Diego | Cincinnati | ||||||||
| Ian Kennedy | Vegas Moneyline | Johnny Cueto | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CIN (-168) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.253 | 0.784 | 0.344 | 24.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.160 | 0.462 | 0.213 | 23.2% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.251 | 0.693 | 0.321 | 20.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.183 | 0.584 | 0.263 | 26.3% |
| Batter Splits | SDP BvP | SDP vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Ian Kennedy – Kennedy is having a terrific season. Some of his stats are inflated (well technically deflated) thanks to half of his start being in Petco Park though which is the most hitter friendly ballpark in baseball. What’s not inflated is his K/9 of 10.3. He will likely see little to no run support, but makes a decent GPP play. Rating = 6
Johnny Cueto – Cueto is making an early case for the Cy Young with his 1.43 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, and K/9 of 9.7. He faces a Padres’ offense that ranks last in almost every offensive category there is. Cueto is the top pitching option on the board tonight, the only question is whether or not he is worth his expensive salary. Rating = 10
Batter Grind Down
San Diego
Targeting pitchers against Cueto is not a great long-term strategy in DFS. Avoid all Padres’ bats tonight.
Cincinnati
Joey Votto – Over the last 2 seasons Kennedy has given up a .344 wOBA to LH batters. Votto’s numbers have been down a bit this season, but he is batting .333 at Great American and a depressed price makes him a terrific play at 1B.
Additional Plays: Billy Hamilton, Todd Frazier
NY Yankees at NY Mets
| NY Yankees | NY Mets | ||||||||
| Masahiro Tanaka | Vegas Moneyline | Rafael Montero | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | NYY (-167) | RIGHT | 6.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.207 | 0.521 | 0.236 | 22.2% | SP vs. Left | ||||
| SP vs. Right | 0.245 | 0.768 | 0.332 | 36.5% | SP vs. Right | ||||
| Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Masahiro Tanaka – There are so many great pitching options available tonight and you can add Tanaka to that list. Tanaka has a 2.57 ERA on the season with a 1.00 WHIP and an impressive K/9 of 10.6. He has a terrific matchup against the Mets who are ranked 29th against RH pitching this season. I don’t have him quite as high as Cueto tonight, but it’s close. Rating = 9
Rafael Montero – Montero will be making his major league debut tonight against the Yankees. He is a decent prospect that has pitched well in the minors this season. He posted a 3.67 ERA with 48 K’s over 41 innings of work. He is worth monitoring moving forward, but I will not be targeting him against the Yankees, especially with Tanaka pitching opposite him.
Batter Grind Down
New York Yankees
Jacoby Ellsbury – Ellsbury has been in a mini-slump and his price has come way down on quite a few sites. Ellsbury doesn’t hit a ton of HR’s so the pitcher-friendly Citi Field shouldn’t impact him all that much. He is facing a rookie RH pitcher making his first career start. I like his odds in this one.
Additional Plays: Brian McCann, Mark Teixeira, Brett Gardner
New York Mets
The Mets are another team that I will be avoiding tonight. They have an extremely tough matchup against Tanaka who has more K’s (58) than hits and walks combined (49).