MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 7th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
San Francisco at Pittsburgh
| San Francisco | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
| Tim Lincecum | Vegas Moneyline | Gerrit Cole | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | PIT (-128) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.251 | 0.695 | 0.318 | 22.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.249 | 0.630 | 0.289 | 20.7% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.265 | 0.754 | 0.338 | 22.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.260 | 0.678 | 0.305 | 21.0% |
| Batter Splits | SFG BvP  | SFG vs R | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Tim Lincecum – Lincecum is not the same viable fantasy option that he was in year’s past. He has an ERA over 5.00 and a WHIP over 1.60. His K/9 is still solid, but his K% is down and he’s not pitching deep into games anymore. Even though the Pirates are ranked 21st against RH pitching this season, I will not be targeting Lincecum today. Rating = 4
Gerrit Cole – Cole has a 3.69 ERA on the season with a 1.31 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.4. These numbers have been a little down since last season and Cole has struggled with his other pitches not named the fastball. Even so, he has still pitched well this season. I like the matchup against the Giants who have a .299 wOBA as a team against RH pitching which is ranked 22nd in the majors. Cole is a solid cash game play today. Rating = 7
Batter Grind Down
San Francisco
Buster Posey – Posey is really the only Giants’ bat that I will be targeting today. He has 8 hits over his last 4 games and hits both LH and RH pitching well. This season he is batting .293 against RH pitching with 5 HR’s.
Additional Plays: None
Pittsburgh
Andrew McCutchen – Cutch is one of my favorite plays in the early slate of games. Lincecum isn’t great against LH batters either, but he really struggles against batters from the right side of the plate (.332 wOBA). Cutch is batting .329 at home this season and has always hit RH pitching well. Ignore the 2/16 BvP against Lincecum.
Additional Plays: Starling Marte, Pedro Alvarez
NY Mets at Miami
| NY Mets | Miami | ||||||||
| Zack Wheeler | Vegas Moneyline | Tom Koehler | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | MIA (-112) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.282 | 0.809 | 0.361 | 18.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.224 | 0.660 | 0.301 | 13.1% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.237 | 0.625 | 0.287 | 21.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.269 | 0.756 | 0.342 | 17.5% |
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Zack Wheeler – Wheeler has really only had one good start this season and it was against this Marlins lineup. On the year, he has a 5.13 ERA with a 1.54 WHIP. He does have a strikeout per inning though. If this game were being played in Citi Field, I think Wheeler would carry some value, but the Marlins offense has been on fire in Marlins Park this season. There are better options for both cash games and GPP’s today. Rating = 4
Tom Koehler – Koehler is having a breakout season, well a breakout 6 starts. So far this season he has posted an impressive 2.41 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and a K/9 of 5.8. This Mets offense is ranked 28th against RH pitching this season with only a .284 wOBA as a team. Koehler will likely be flying under the radar and even though he doesn’t have a ton of upside, I think he makes a nice play today. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
New York Mets
David Wright – Koehler is a reverse splits pitcher who gives up a higher wOBA and OPS to RH batters. Wright hits both LH and RH pitching well and is pretty cheap across the industry right now. He makes a nice play at 3B in the Early-Only leagues.
Additional Plays: Curtis Granderson
Miami
Giancarlo Stanton – Stanton is batting .300 with a .985 OPS against RH pitching this season. Wheeler has struggled with his command at times this season and something tells me that he’s going to leave a fastball over the plate. I’m calling a jack for Giancarlo today.
Additional Plays: Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Christian Yelich
LA Dodgers at Washington
| LA Dodgers | Washington | ||||||||
| Dan Haren | Vegas Moneyline | Stephen Strasburg | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | WAS (-140) | RIGHT | 6.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.250 | 0.700 | 0.309 | 19.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.215 | 0.602 | 0.279 | 23.2% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.278 | 0.757 | 0.338 | 22.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.221 | 0.588 | 0.275 | 31.3% |
| Batter Splits | LAD BvP | LAD vs R | Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Dan Haren – Haren has managed to keep the ball in the park this season and his numbers have improved dramatically over the last two seasons. He has a 2.39 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP on the season with a K/9 of 8.3. Haren has a decent matchup against the Nationals, but will likely receive little to no run support with Strasburg pitching opposite him. I don’t see him as anything other than a deep GPP play. Rating = 5
Stephen Strasburg – With Strasburg it’s less about his opponent as it is about where the game is being played. We keep waiting for Strasburg’s Home/Road splits to even out, but that just hasn’t been the case. In his last 19 starts at Nationals Park Strasburg has an ERA under 2.00 compared to his road ERA close to 5.00. Strasburg has one of the highest K-rates in baseball and as crazy as it may sound, I think he mows through this Dodgers lineup and picks up 8-10 K’s along the way. Rating = 9
Batter Grind Down
L.A. Dodgers
Hanley Ramirez has decent career numbers off of Strasburg and could be worth a look as a GPP play, but I’ll be avoiding the rest of the Dodgers’ bats. Strasburg has been dominant at home throughout his career and the total is only set at 6.5 runs.
Washington
Ian Desmond – Desmond is a gut play more than anything, but his price is depressed across the industry and he does have great power for a SS. Haren has been known to give up the long ball and Desmond is a cheap SS with nice upside.
Additional Plays: Anthony Rendon
Arizona at Milwaukee
| Arizona | Milwaukee | ||||||||
| Bronson Arroyo | Vegas Moneyline | Wily Peralta | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | MIL (-139) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.283 | 0.806 | 0.350 | 11.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.249 | 0.704 | 0.319 | 17.0% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.243 | 0.653 | 0.295 | 17.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.263 | 0.679 | 0.313 | 16.4% |
| Batter Splits | ARI BvP | ARI vs R | Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Bronson Arroyo – Arroyo is coming off of his best start of the season, but it was against the league’s worst offense in the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in baseball. Today he faces a very tough Brewers lineup in the HR friendly Miller Park. The total for this game is set at 8.0 runs, but I could see the Brewers covering that total by themselves. Rating = 3
Wily Peralta – Peralta has really pitched well this season. He has a 2.04 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and 32 K’s over 39 innings of work. While I like the numbers and I like his potential run support, I have a hard time picking on the D-Backs offense when I don’t have to. The D-Backs have plenty of power in their lineup and for that reason I will only be using Peralta as a GPP play. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
Arizona
Paul Goldschmidt – Like I said yesterday, you can never go wrong with taking a power hitter in a HR friendly ballpark. Goldy went 3/5 with a HR last night and makes sense as a tournament play in the early leagues.
Additional Plays: Aaron Hill, Miguel Montero
Milwaukee
Jonathan Lucroy – You can’t find many catchers that bat in the middle of the order that hits for average and has good power. Lucroy is pretty cheap across the industry right now and makes a terrific play against Arroyo who owns an ERA over 6.00 on the season.
Additional Plays: Khris Davis, Carlos Gomez, Scooter Gennett
Seattle at Oakland
| Seattle | Oakland | ||||||||
| Felix Hernandez | Vegas Moneyline | Dan Straily | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | SEA (-118) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.247 | 0.654 | 0.293 | 25.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.248 | 0.740 | 0.329 | 17.9% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.221 | 0.591 | 0.265 | 28.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.220 | 0.608 | 0.282 | 22.2% |
| Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs R | Batter Splits | OAK BvP | OAK vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Felix Hernandez – King Felix has not been himself in his last 2 starts. He has struggled with his command and walked 6 batters over those two starts which is very uncharacteristic for Hernandez. I’m not too worried about it, but this A’s offense likes to work the count and take as many pitches as they can. They are also ranked 4th against RH pitching this season with a team .340 wOBA against righties. Felix has the upside, but I do think there are better options for cash games. Rating = 7
Dan Straily – Straily is a pitcher that has a high K-rate, but gives up too many hits and runs to be a viable cash game option. On the season he has a 5.01 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and a K/9 of 8.7. This Mariners offense has really been heating up over the last two weeks and I expect them to climb the rankings against RH pitching very soon with all of the LH batters in their lineup. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
Seattle
Robinson Cano – Cano is batting .316 against RH pitching this season and has 7 hits over his last 4 games. Not only that, but Straily has struggled against LH batters as he has given up a .329 wOBA to lefties this season.
Additional Plays: Kyle Seager, Dustin Ackley
Oakland
Even though I’m not targeting King Felix in cash games, I will not be targeting any batters against him. There are much better matchups that you should be targeting.