MLB Heat Check: July 9th, 2013

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-07-09 05:20:34

Some would argue that the best strategy in daily fantasy baseball is through finding the players heating up and exploiting them. Others would say that guys performing below their typical averages are due to return to the norm and can be terrific sources of value. Well this article will have a little bit for both parties as a couple of times each week I’ll break down the hottest and coldest hitters in baseball.

Some would argue that the best strategy in daily fantasy baseball is through finding the players heating up and exploiting them. Others would say that guys performing below their typical averages are due to return to the norm and can be terrific sources of value. Well this article will have a little bit for both parties as a couple of times each week I’ll break down the hottest and coldest hitters in baseball.

For the purpose of this article, we’ll define hot and cold streaks by players recent averages (last fourteen days) vs. their season averages. We’re far enough into the season that, for the most part, we have a decent feel for where players lie. The four key stats looked at in terms of differentials will be:

1) Batting Average
2) Slugging Percentage
3) OPS (On Base + Slugging)
4) Fantasy Points Per Game (based on FD scoring)

Also, to qualify, hitters must have at least 50 plate appearances on the season and 10 plate appearances over the past 2 weeks.

Shown below are the hitters with the largest fantasy point per game differentials between their last 14 days performance and their season averages, along with the percentage increase or decrease for each stat.

HOTTEST HITTERS

Alfonso Soriano

Alfonso Soriano	HOTTEST HITTER #1
	Season		Last 14 Days		Difference		Percent Change
	AVG	0.256	AVG	0.310	AVG	0.054	AVG	21.1%
	SLG	0.443	SLG	0.738	SLG	0.295	SLG	66.6%
	OPS	0.715	OPS	1.040	OPS	0.325	OPS	45.5%
	FPPG	2.31	FPPG	4.58	FPPG	2.26	FPPG	97.9%

• The man with absolutely no plan at all has been a monster of late. He has 5 HR in his last 10 games and is bumping his trade value each and every day.
• With 6 hits in 7 games in July it appears that Soriano will continue to be, to fantasy players, what he has always been. A guy who can have a big night here or there but isn’t particularly trustworthy.

Josh Donaldson

Josh Donaldson	HOTTEST HITTER #2
	Season		Last 14 Days		Difference		Percent Change
	AVG	0.319	AVG	0.421	AVG	0.102	AVG	32.0%
	SLG	0.536	SLG	0.895	SLG	0.359	SLG	67.1%
	OPS	0.921	OPS	1.395	OPS	0.474	OPS	51.5%
	FPPG	3.05	FPPG	5.05	FPPG	2.00	FPPG	65.6%

• An absolute SNUB on the All-Star Ballot, Josh Donaldson has been one of the best hitters in baseball in recent days and deserves his high price tag on the various DFS sites.
• He has a hit in all but 1 of his last 10 games, including 5 multi-hit performances.
• Last year he was an auto-play for me against lefties, and this year it’s no different as he’s ripping the ball at .362 against left handers with an obscene 1.121 OPS against. But maybe more impressive is his improvement against righties where he’s hit .302 on the year and an OPS just a shade under .900

Starling Marte

Starling Marte	HOTTEST HITTER #3
	Season		Last 14 Days		Difference		Percent Change
	AVG	0.292	AVG	0.370	AVG	0.078	AVG	26.7%
	SLG	0.465	SLG	0.685	SLG	0.220	SLG	47.4%
	OPS	0.768	OPS	1.056	OPS	0.288	OPS	37.5%
	FPPG	3.05	FPPG	5.05	FPPG	1.99	FPPG	65.2%

• Marte is one of the true up-and-comers in baseball and he, like Donaldson, might be a must play when left handers are on the bump. His OPS against lefties? 1.035
• The young Pirate seems to be a pretty streaky play right now, as he had a hot start to the 2013 campaign before cooling off and has now returned to hit red-hot ways. Ride this streak out (preferably against LHP) and then hop off his high price tag when it looks like he’s slowing down.

Josh Hamilton

Josh Hamilton	HOTTEST HITTER #4
	Season		Last 14 Days		Difference		Percent Change
	AVG	0.230	AVG	0.372	AVG	0.142	AVG	61.7%
	SLG	0.409	SLG	0.605	SLG	0.196	SLG	47.9%
	OPS	0.688	OPS	1.047	OPS	0.359	OPS	52.2%
	FPPG	2.15	FPPG	3.94	FPPG	1.79	FPPG	83.0%

• Well it wasn’t hard for Hamilton to push his way onto this list after he was god awful for the first 2.5 months of the season.
• With 6 XBH over the past 10 days and a hit in every game, his average has risen .015 points. Maybe he started chewing again and he’s gonna start pummeling the ball.
• It’s still buyer beware with Hamilton, as he is prone to the strikeout and has whiffed 9 times in the past 10 games so you are still likely to pick up some negatives from him on sites that deduct extra for KOs.

A.J. Ellis

A.J. Ellis	HOTTEST HITTER #5
	Season		Last 14 Days		Difference		Percent Change
	AVG	0.267	AVG	0.344	AVG	0.077	AVG	28.8%
	SLG	0.385	SLG	0.500	SLG	0.115	SLG	30.0%
	OPS	0.735	OPS	0.921	OPS	0.186	OPS	25.3%
	FPPG	1.92	FPPG	3.64	FPPG	1.72	FPPG	89.7%

• The Dodgers are on fire and so, as you’d probably expect (but not really), A.J. Ellis is smashing the ball.
• 9 hits in his past 5 games have been a nice improvement including a handful of XBH.
• Ellis has some odd splits on the season. He hits righties for a better average but his OPS is higher against left handers. Just some food for thought if you’re considering the reasonably priced catcher in your DFS plans. He might be a GPP play against lefties and H2H against right?

HONORABLE MENTION – HOTTEST

COLDEST HITTERS

Hunter Pence

Hunter Pence	COLDEST HITTER #1
	Season		Last 14 Days		Difference		Percent Change
	AVG	0.266	AVG	0.136	AVG	-0.130	AVG	-48.9%
	SLG	0.456	SLG	0.205	SLG	-0.252	SLG	-55.2%
	OPS	0.767	OPS	0.396	OPS	-0.371	OPS	-48.4%
	FPPG	2.67	FPPG	0.71	FPPG	-1.96	FPPG	-73.5%

• No surprise that one of MLB’s coldest offenses is lead by a star player hitting just .136 over the past 14 days.
• Pence has yet to record a hit in July. He’s 0-22 in 6 games played.
• Not really sure what the issue is with Pence but he’s a total avoid right now. He seems mired in the middle of a cold streak and hasn’t showed any pulse that might want you to consider him.

PS – I hope he doesn’t read this, he seems like he’s borderline out of his mind:

Evan Longoria

Evan Longoria	COLDEST HITTER #2
	Season		Last 14 Days		Difference		Percent Change
	AVG	0.289	AVG	0.138	AVG	-0.151	AVG	-52.2%
	SLG	0.525	SLG	0.138	SLG	-0.387	SLG	-73.7%
	OPS	0.888	OPS	0.497	OPS	-0.391	OPS	-44.0%
	FPPG	2.96	FPPG	1.08	FPPG	-1.89	FPPG	-63.7%

• From personal experience (aka my old man), I can tell you plantar fascitis is no fun. Longo is toughing through it but his .138 average over the past 14 might indicate a DL trip in his near future.
• He doesn’t have a single extra base hit in the past 10 days and that is probably directly connected to his inability to plant off his foot.
• Just avoid until he seems healthier. He’s a tremendous player and things will undoubtedly turn around but like I said earlier, that may be after a short stint on the DL.

Gerardo Parra

Gerardo Parra	COLDEST HITTER #3
	Season		Last 14 Days		Difference		Percent Change
	AVG	0.299	AVG	0.196	AVG	-0.103	AVG	-34.4%
	SLG	0.448	SLG	0.239	SLG	-0.209	SLG	-46.6%
	OPS	0.797	OPS	0.443	OPS	-0.354	OPS	-44.4%
	FPPG	2.53	FPPG	0.70	FPPG	-1.82	FPPG	-72.1%

• Parra is a perfect candidate for buying low right now, as despite the big gap between his last 14 and season stats, he has actually been better in the very recent past.
• He has 3 multi-hit games in his last 6 with a couple of XBH.
• If the price is low, go after him against righties. He’s hitting .315 with an 864 OPS against this yea vs. RHP.

Marco Scutaro

Marco Scutaro	COLDEST HITTER #4
	Season		Last 14 Days		Difference		Percent Change
	AVG	0.310	AVG	0.147	AVG	-0.163	AVG	-52.6%
	SLG	0.403	SLG	0.147	SLG	-0.256	SLG	-63.5%
	OPS	0.756	OPS	0.327	OPS	-0.429	OPS	-56.7%
	FPPG	1.96	FPPG	0.28	FPPG	-1.68	FPPG	-86.0%

• I actually had to intentionally remove Pablo Sandoval for fear of being redundant but 2 more Giants hitters still managed their way on here.
• Scutaro hasn’t had a multi hit game since June 23rd and for a guy who doesn’t have a ton of pop, that’s not great for his fantasy output. He also doesn’t have an extra base hit since June 21st.
• Avoid the G-men. Target pitchers against them. That’s all I really have.

J.J. Hardy

J.J. Hardy	COLDEST HITTER #5
	Season		Last 14 Days		Difference		Percent Change
	AVG	0.251	AVG	0.152	AVG	-0.099	AVG	-39.4%
	SLG	0.432	SLG	0.196	SLG	-0.236	SLG	-54.7%
	OPS	0.720	OPS	0.379	OPS	-0.341	OPS	-47.4%
	FPPG	2.05	FPPG	0.48	FPPG	-1.57	FPPG	-76.6%

• Hardy is so damn streaky that you could easily see him in the hottest category within a week. But for now, he can’t hit the broad side of a barn.
• No dong-action for J.J. since the 21st of June and just 2 extra-base hits in that span shows that he’s nowhere close right now.
• Avoid him as his price drops rapidly. Wait until he seems to be at rock bottom and is randomly tossed into the 3-hole in that Orioles lineup. Then pounce. That worked for me earlier in the year at least.

HONORABLE MENTIONS – COLDEST