MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Friday: Best Bets, Including Marlins vs. Phillies & Dodgers vs. Rockies (July 16)

by Sloan Piva (SloanPiva) Last Updated 2021-07-16 11:14:22

The All-Star break has officially concluded, and it’s time for the second half of the 2021 MLB season. It should be an exciting ride through the home stretch, with lots of teams making moves and calling up their studs from the minors ahead of the postseason push.

With well over half the games played, we have a substantial amount of research and analysis to pour into our baseball picks. If you’re looking for angles, we’ve got a few to consider as we peruse MLB odds for Friday, July 16. So, without further ado, let’s jump right into our favorite Bets of the Day for Friday night’s MLB slate, and start the second half of the season in style.

All odds are from BetMGM. All stats are from MLB.com and Baseball Reference.

MLB Betting Picks for Friday, July 16

Marlins vs. Phillies Odds

I won’t touch the Marlins’ -1.5 run line or the OVER 6.5 runs with a ten-foot pole, but I’ll gladly back Sandy Alcantara as the slight road favorite. A massive reason why Miami dons the fifth-best team ERA in the majors (3.43), Alcantara has very quietly been brilliant this season. If he played for a team that could consistently score runs, this kid would not only be an All-Star—he would probably be a Cy Young candidate.

Alcantara’s win-loss record despite his dominance is reminiscent of Felix Hernandez with the Mariners back in the day. The young Marlins righty is 5-8, despite a sparkling 3.09 ERA and 1.12 WHIP through 116.2 innings of work. He limits hard contact, with a hard-hit rate of 37.9 percent and a barrel rate of 3.6 percent (top 5% in MLB). His ground ball to flyball ratio: 54.6% to 19.4%.

Even better, Alcantara has been solid on the road this season. The 25-year old has collected four of his five wins in away games, and he’s allowed just one earned run across 22.1 innings over his past three road starts. The cherry on top: Alcantara surrendered just two total runs on four hits in the two games he faced Philly earlier this season (May 20 and May 25). He is 5-2 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over 52.1 career innings against the Phillies, who have maintained a .228 batting average against him.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia will be trotting out the oft-inconsistent Matt Moore, who sports a 5.40 ERA and 1.64 WHIP this season. The southpaw has turned it around a bit lately, but he still can’t be trusted to out-duel a young ace after an extended period of rest. If Miami can put up three or four runs, I think we have ourselves a winner at -125. Just don’t get crazy and bet the Marlins’ -1.5 run line—nobody underwhelms like a Fish at the plate.

MLB Pick: Marlins -125

Dodgers vs. Rockies Odds

The Rockies may be riding high after hosting the 2021 All-Star Game, but the start of the season’s second half will bring them crashing back down to Earth in no time. Sure, Colorado flaunts an incredible 31-17 home record this season—one of the best in the bigs—but this Rockies team stinks. Its 9-34 away record might be more indicative of its identity than its baffling home record.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers are great regardless of venue. The reigning champs are 30-14 at home and 26-21 on the road, and they look poised to make a serious run at the Giants atop the NL West right out of the gate. LA finds itself just two games behind the top seed in both the division and league, and with its players getting healthier, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Dodgers leap-frog San Fran sooner rather than later.

Julio Urias continues to impress in his first full season as a starter, with an 11-3 record and a 3.64 ERA. The bespectacled phenom also has 109 strikeouts, and he maintains a 27.7 percent strikeout rate and 5.4 percent walk rate. Batters are hitting a collective .230 against him.

Good luck, Antonio Senzatela —you have your work cut out for you. The 26-year old Venezuelan is just 2-8 this season, with a 4.58 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and 65 punch-outs. He has allowed seven or more hits in seven consecutive starts, and in 10 of his last 12. I still don’t see enough value to bet the Dodgers’ -2.5 run line, but I’d be all over their -200 for up to $200. A win is basically a lock for LA—a win by three runs is not.

MLB Pick: Dodgers -200

Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers Odds

What a difference a run line makes. Bet the moneyline, and you’re only profiting $20 on a $50 bet if you win. Bet the run line, and you’re profiting double that on the same wager amount. I’ll take that value boost, especially with a hot young Blue Jays lineup that can torch Jordan Lyles into oblivion at home.

Never mind Toronto’s All-Star core of first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., shortstop Bo Bichette, and outfielder Teoscar Hernandez. The Jays are also getting a hell of a season from quite a few pitchers, including Robbie Ray. The veteran is 7-4 with a 3.13 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings. He has been dealing some of the best stuff of his eight-year career, and his bullpen behind him finally seems to have things figured out.

Lyles, meanwhile, has left a lot to be desired for the lowly Rangers. The 30-year old vet is 5-5 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.443 ERA, and he strikes out just 7.1 batters per nine innings. I think these two pitchers—and these two clubs on the whole—are moving in completely different directions, and it will only get worse in the second half.

MLB Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 (-125)

MLB Parlay of the Day

Miami Marlins (-125) at Philadelphia Phillies (Sandy Alcantara vs. Matt Moore) – The Fish do the frying today, behind the smoothest of the Sandy’s.

Los Angeles Dodgers (-200) at Colorado Rockies (Julio Urias vs. Antonio Senzatela) – The reigning champs will come out firing Friday night, on the hunt for the top spot in the division and league. I like their chances.

Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-125) vs. Texas Rangers (Robbie Ray vs. Jordan Lyles) – Sorry, Jordan—you’re going to take this column personally. I think Toronto’s gonna smack you around at home.

Minnesota Twins (-120) at Detroit Tigers (Kenta Maeda at TBD) – I’m the least confident in this one, so if you want safety, don’t roll this into your parlay. But Maeda has been pitching much more to his ace potential as of late, and the Tigers are still the Tigers. Want a bigger risk and bigger reward? Go with the four-spot. Like more conservative investments? Go with three.

Total Odds: +789

|Bet: $100 |To Win: $789 |Total Payout: $889|

Image Credit: Imagn