MLB Picks For Today: Brewers Betting Favorites Against Cubs
The Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs are embroiled in a tight race for their divisional crown. With the Cardinals on top of the division, only a game separates each of the three teams with the Brewers sitting in third. Last night, the Brewers cut into the Cubs advantage with a victory at home, 3-2. Tonight, both teams look to get the upper hand on their division rivals as they continue their weekend series. Here’s a sports betting look ahead to tonight’s game in Milwaukee.
Savvy veteran, Gio Gonzalez, led the Brewers to a tight victory at home against the hard-hitting Cubs. Gonzalez gave up two runs across 6 and 1/3 innings, striking out nine and leaving with a no-decision. The Brewers were able to usurp control of the lead in the bottom of the 8th inning when Ben Gamel drove in Eric Thames and Keston Hiura on a two-out, bases-loaded single. After a Josh Hader clean inning, the Brewers closed out the victory.
The Brewers hope to make it back-to-back tonight — sending Chase Anderson to the hill to face Jon Lester. The Brewers are early -116 favorites on FanDuel Sportsbook in a projected 9.5-run game total.
MLB Picks for Today — Brewers (-116) vs. Cubs (+102), Over/Under 9.5 Runs
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Stat of the Night
Their vaunted offense is the primary reason why the Brewers find themselves in contention leading into August for the National League Central crown. Playing at home in Miller Park, the Brewers are even more spectacular. The likely reason for the Brewers’ success at home is the presence of powerful lefties in a park that favors left-handed hitting. The Brewers boast the highest home HR/FB% in the MLB (19.7%) which certainly boosts their seventh-ranked, .204 team ISO in Miller Park.
Last season, Miller Park was the fifth-rated ballpark by FanGraphs for home runs to either side of the plate — a factor that cannot be ignored when considering their lofty HR/FB%.
Prop Shop – HR Props on FanDuel Sportsbook
The home run ball was just about the only redeeming portion of yesterday’s article covering the Yankees and Red Sox with Mookie Betts cashing a +410 prop with three home runs. Today, we will consider one player on both sides of the game and their HR Prop on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Checking in for the visiting Cubs, Kris Bryant is tabbed with a +330 HR prop in a very winnable matchup versus Chase Anderson at home. With regard to power, Anderson has always been a reverse-splits pitcher allowing a 1.5 HR/9 to righties while allowing only a 1.1 HR/9 to lefties throughout his career. This season, the splits are even more pronounced with Anderson sitting at a .217 ISO to the right side with a respectable .127 ISO to lefties. Bryant’s .232 ISO is not a team-high versus righties but his 41.9 FB% leads the team aside from the small sample of Robel Garcia.
On the Brewers side, culling through the home run props for some value is far more difficult. Noted sluggers Mike Moustakas and Christian Yelich sit at +200 and +210 respectively, while Ryan Braun and his .255 ISO sit at +370. Braun certainly piques my interest but only boasts a 29.6 FB% versus southpaws this season. Instead, I prefer the much bigger payoff present with Keston Hiura – the Brewers prospect who has lit up the MLB since his last call up from the farm. Hiura is tabbed at +550 today despite a torrid two weeks. Hiura holds a .362 ISO and 41.9 FB% over the last 14 days. I am willing to throw the dart for this price versus taking the poor odds on the other sluggers.
Pitching Primer
Jon Lester takes the hill after being scratched from his last start due to illness. The veteran southpaw, clearly, has his better years behind him but still remains a relatively dependable rotation turn for the Cubs. His 22.6% K-rate is solid and his 4.9 BB% is pretty good. Unfortunately, Lester is giving up far too much hard contact at 39.3% — allowing opposing hitters to compile an 88.5 MPH average exit velocity. In the context of the windy city, Lester may be able to get away with hard contact when the wind blows in the correct direction. However, in Miller Park, Lester’s hard-hit rate is a big concern.
The Cubs’ bullpen is pretty average. Chicago’s relievers do not generate enough strikeouts with a bottom-10 22.2K% and sit right in the middle of the pack in xFIP with a 4.49. If Lester is somehow able to leave with a lead, the Cubs bullpen will not strike fear in the home Brewers. Lester will likely need to find some length tonight.
Chase Anderson will start for the Brewers at home and aims to give the home team length. Anderson has not pitched a full six innings since June 9th — his only start that went exactly six innings. Anderson’s issues with right-handed power were documented in the props section and Chicago will trot out three imposing righties in Baez, Bryant, and Contreras. Like Lester, Anderson boasts a solid K-rate at 23.2% but unlike his opponent, Anderson issues too many free passes. Anderson’s 7.9% walk-rate is likely the primary factor contributing to Anderson’s inability to log a quality start. The Cubs’ projected lineup per RotoGrinders owns a collective 10.2 BB%. This game can get out of hand early if Anderson shows any difficulty with control.
Behind Anderson is a top-tier bullpen. So, if Anderson was able to give the Brewers a quality start or at least five innings, the Brewers will have a big advantage this evening. Led by phenom Josh Hader, the Brewers relievers boast a 26.2 K%, .234 batting average against, and 4.10 xFIP. All of those marks are top five in all of Major League Baseball.
The MLB Pick — Brewers -116 (use our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get these odds).
The Brewers own a one-game advantage in the seven games the two division rivals have played this season. Every game is far more important as the season progresses with both teams battling with the Cardinals to avoid the wild card mix and capture a division title.
After breaking down the matchup, the biggest advantage for the Brewers is the biggest factor in my decision. Even if Jon Lester and Chase Anderson are similar in quality with perhaps a slight lean to Lester, the Brewers bullpen is far better than that of the Cubs. If the game stays close for the first five innings, the Brewers will gain an advantage when closing out the game at home. The only scenario that could be overly detrimental to the Brewers would be an implosion by Chase Anderson. While this is certainly within the range of outcomes, I like the game to stay close with Milwaukee pulling ahead and closing out the game in the final few innings. So, I will take the Brewers ML at -116 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Check back tomorrow as we provide more MLB picks for Sunday.
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