MLB Player Props Today: Best Bets & Predictions for Thursday (3/21)
What kind of performances can we expect on Thursday from Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Joe Musgrove, and Shohei Ohtani? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets and DFS pick’em predictions for today – Thursday, March 21, 2024. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more baseball props, at ScoresandOdds.
Did everyone enjoy waking up sleep-deprived to watch the first MLB regular season game of 2024 yesterday? Yes? Good. We get to do it again on Thursday, with the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers running things back from the Gocheok Sky Dome in Korea.
Joe Musgrove will toe the rubber for the Padres and will be opposed by Yoshinobu Yamamoto for the Dodgers, who is making his MLB debut after signing a 12-year, $325 million contract this past winter. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05 a.m. ET on ESPN.
Since the beginning of last year, we are 122-59 (67.4%) on pitcher prop recommendations in this article for the entire regular season. We have two more pitcher props in today’s article!
Below are three prop leans for March 21!
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MLB Player Props Today
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over/Under 12.5 Outs Recorded
- Joe Musgrove Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts
- Shohei Ohtani Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases
Yoshinobu Yamamoto OVER 12.5 Outs Recorded (+104), FanDuel
Disclaimer first: Pitcher props are more high variance in March and April than they are during the middle of the summer. With that being said, sometimes it’s worth taking a risk in that type of market and choosing to live with the results.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is somewhat of an unknown commodity considering he’s never thrown a pitch in a regular season MLB game as of this writing. However, we do know that his career numbers from the Japanese League include a 1.72 ERA and a .714 winning percentage. We have evidence of a mid-to-upper 90s fastball, which is complemented by an elite splitter and devastating curveball. Perhaps most impressive is that Yamamoto has a track record of being able to throw all of those pitches for strikes.
In his most recent spring training outing, Yamamoto completed 4.2 innings of work against the Mariners, which means that he’s likely stretched out to pitch into the 5th inning on Thursday if he’s reasonably effective. The Padres have some big names in their lineup, such as Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, and Luis Campusano. Still, their offense projects closer to mediocre than elite in 2024. At plus money, this is a worthwhile risk.
Joe Musgrove UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-155), BetMGM
Joe Musgrove is one of the better pitchers in Major League Baseball, but he draws an incredibly difficult matchup to begin 2024 facing the Dodgers.
Following the All-Star Break in 2023, the Los Angeles Dodgers had the 6th-lowest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitching. During that stretch, they ranked 6th in overall contact%, 10th in contact% on pitches out of the strike zone, and 7th in contact% on pitches in the strike zone. On Wednesday, the Dodgers struck out only 7 times in over 40 plate appearances against Yu Darvish and a collection of bullpen arms.
Musgrove has an arsenal that allows him to get more swings-and-misses against left-handed batters (LHB) than RHB, which could be advantageous if Los Angeles deploys 6 LHB again on Thursday. However, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward, and Gavin Lux each project to strike out at the league-average rate or less often against RHP.
There is also the possibility that Musgrove could be on a reduced pitch count in this spot, coming off of a season in which he dealt with a broken toe, shoulder inflammation, and elbow bursitis. Michael King is reportedly available in long-relief on Thursday, which could work to keep Musgrove under this market number.
Shohei Ohtani OVER 0.5 Stolen Bases (+850), bet365
Of all current players on the Dodgers roster, none were more aggressive in their stolen base opportunities last year than Shohei Ohtani. We saw his aggressiveness once again on Wednesday, swiping second base off of the battery of Yu Darvish and Luis Campusano.
Thursday’s probable pitcher for the Padres, Joe Musgrove, is not particularly quick to the plate either – and we know that Campusano is worse than the league average catcher when it comes to controlling the running game. If looking for a fun-money prop to follow early tomorrow morning, this is great value for a player who has a good chance to end up on first base.
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