MLB Predictions & Betting Picks — Tuesday, April 27
Sloan Piva looks at odds across online sportsbooks, and makes MLB predictions and betting picks for today — Tuesday, April 27, 2021.
‘Time flies.’ The older we get, the truer those two words seem to ring. And the busier we are, the worse it gets. I notice this now more than ever, with a full-time job, two freelance baseball writing positions, and a 19-month-old daughter. The latter two—baseball and the baby—happen to take up the majority of my time away from my 9-5. They also happen to be two of the things I’ve loved the most in my life (next to my wife, of course). And ironically, both baseball and the baby make time seem like it’s flying by even quicker.
This presents a bittersweet feeling on both fronts.
With the baby, I am happy to see her growing into such a smart and beautiful little girl. She’s hitting so many mental, physical, and emotional milestones, saying so many new words each week, and even learning how to throw and catch a ball. But part of me just wants her to be my little baby girl for a few more years.
With baseball, I love seeing how the season continues to unfold. The little wrinkles you start to notice about certain teams, rivalries forming (or renewing) in front of our eyes, prospects breaking out and stars morphing into superstardom. But then you realize how fast the opening month is flying by—can’t we just stay in late April for a few more months?
We can’t freeze time. But there are ways to capture the great moments, whether you’re an adoring father or a die-hard baseball fan.
If you’re a proud Pops, take pictures and videos constantly. Mark the kiddos’ heights on the wall. Frame the scribble drawing or ugly painting that means the world to you (and only you) and stick it in your office.
If you’re a baseball enthusiast, start doing some extra research and putting some smart money into the game through betting. Nothing captures the moment—or makes the baseball memories stick—better than winning money off of the national pastime. It’s a glorious feeling being able to combine two of your favorite things: the greatest sport in the history of the country, and making money.
Somehow, a little under 15 percent of the 2021 MLB regular season has already passed. But if you have been reading this column every Tuesday and Friday, and following my baseball betting analysis and advice, you’re probably feeling pretty good about things. My season-long record on my Bets of the Day now stands at 16-6, a cool 10 games over .500. If you’ve been risking $100 on each individual recommended bet, you are already four-figures richer to this point. That’s a lot of baseball-generated scratch, plenty of dough to fund family trips to the ballpark, or start a 529 college savings plan.
So, let’s keep the good times rolling—and make some more memories—by winning some cold, hard cash on the game we love. My motivation won’t waver—I put the same kind of effort into my betting analysis as I put into parenting: 100 percent, with a little humor sprinkled in and the occasional ‘WTF’ moment. But like parenting, if we continue to work hard—and always remember to have fun with it—we will continue to enrich ourselves, as surely as time continues to fly.
All MLB odds for this article are from BetMGM and PointsBet. All stats via MLB.com and Baseball Reference.
MLB Predictions — Tuesday, April 27
Washington Nationals vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Neutral Site)
Pitching Matchup: Max Scherzer vs. Trent Thornton
MLB Pick: Nationals -140 (PointsBet, BetMGM)
Max Scherzer has accumulated a laundry list of accolades throughout his illustrious 13-year career. He has won three Cy Young awards. He has been selected to seven All-Star teams. He has won a World Series. And now, in each of his past two starts, the 36-year-old has hurled his way past pitching legends on the all-time strikeout list.
Ten days ago, against the Diamondbacks—the team he debuted with in 2008—Scherzer needed five strikeouts to tie the immortal Cy Young on the all-time list. Of course, the Nats ace doubled that, and finished with 10 total strikeouts. Five days later, against the Cardinals—the team that originally drafted Scherzer in the Amateur Draft in 2003—he needed six strikeouts to tie Mike Mussina. He finished with nine total K’s.
Scherzer is now 21st on the all-time list, and he’ll be in the teens before we know it. But right now, he’s probably more interested in getting the Nationals out of the basement of the NL East. After a rocky start, which included an Opening Weekend COVID outbreak, Washington is 8-11. Amazingly, that puts them just two games back of the 9-8 Mets, whose offensive output hasn’t exactly screamed “Major League division leader.”
The Nats offense has been brutal, as well—they have only six more runs than the Mets’ league-lowest mark of 56, and they are batting a tick lower than New York at .242. Not helping matters, superstar outfielder Juan Soto has been on the shelf with a shoulder injury. But Washington displayed signs of life in a 7-1 win over the Mets Saturday. And after getting shut out Sunday, the Nats had a much-needed day of rest Monday.
One thing’s for sure: DC’s club doesn’t need much offense with Scherzer on the mound these days. In each of Mad Max’s past two starts, the Nats won 1-0. That’s brutal for the ace—he still has just one win on the season despite giving up just five runs on 14 hits in 25.0 innings—but it’s great for Washington’s chances Tuesday.
In addition to Scherzer’s timeless command, and his velocity that seems to be turning back time, he has sparkling career numbers against Toronto. In 10 lifetime appearances against the Blue Jays, he has a 4-2 record, with a 2.00 ERA, 1.020 WHIP, 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings, and a .220 batting average against. Now he gets the young Jays on a neutral field on the sunny Gulf Coast of Florida, and he’s matched up against a bullpen guy in Trent Thornton.
Now, don’t get me wrong—Thornton’s got good stuff. But he’s no more than an opener at best in this situation. He’s only started four games since his 2019 rookie year. He made a two-inning start against the Red Sox last week, a game Toronto ended up winning 6-3. Last season, he started three games, but only pitched a total of six innings all year.
I get the feeling Scherzer is riding pretty high right now, and he’s going to do whatever it takes to get his club the win when it’s his turn on the mound. Toronto has a lot of good offensive talent, but as a team, the Blue Jays have the sixth-worst scoring production (83 runs on the year) and 11th-worst batting average (.225). Methinks their team numbers won’t improve much against Scherzer, who sports a 32 percent combined called strike rate (looking/swinging). It won’t be a slugfest, but it should be a win for Washington.
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs
Pitching Matchup: Ian Anderson vs. Trevor Williams
MLB Pick: Braves -1.5 (+120, PointsBet)
Like the Nationals, the Braves got off to a brutal start at the plate this season. But man, did they look alive Monday night, winning an 8-7 barnburner in the series-opener against the visiting Cubbies.
It likely won’t take eight runs to get the W Tuesday, as Ian Anderson has proven himself to be one of the more promising young arms in the majors. Across just 10 combined games since his call-up late last August, the tall, lanky rookie has achieved quite a bit. He owns a 4-2 record, a 2.48 ERA, a 1.196 WHIP, and he averages 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s only given up 15 earned runs (and just four homers) in 54.1 innings (232 batters faced). Per MLB.com, his 64 strikeouts are the most ever by a Braves pitcher in his first 10 appearances.
Anderson, who turns 23 years old Sunday, just spun a beauty against the Yankees in the Bronx. He went 6.2 scoreless innings in a 4-1 win that helped Atlanta start to turn things around. They were 7-7 before that win. They have won three of their past five games since. Anderson hasn’t had the high whiff rate he flashed last Fall, but he has thrown 63 percent of his pitches for strikes. If his outing against New York is any indicator, he is warming back up to form. Now he gets to pitch at home, and even better, at night—his ERA (2.29) is 0.55 lower in night games, and his WHIP (1.132) is 0.184 lower.
Trevor Williams has been pretty strong for the Cubs early on, sporting a 2-1 record and 3.36 FIP. But his WHIP remains high at 1.500, and his 4.66 ERA indicates that his 4.44 lifetime mark might not be lowering anytime soon. Additionally, Williams typically struggles to get through more than five frames. That’s bad news for a Chicago staff ranking in the bottom five in the MLB in ERA (4.66) and WHIP (1.42).
The Cubbies just lost two out of three games to the Brewers over the weekend, and then suffered their third-consecutive defeat in the series-opener against Atlanta Monday. The Braves should be able to harness their momentum, while capitalizing on Chicago hitting the skids. Cue the Jethro Tull walkout music—it’s Ian Anderson time (sorry, obligatory Dad joke).
Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals
Pitching Matchup: Zach Eflin vs. Carlos Martinez
MLB Pick: Phillies -110 (PointsBet)
Did I really just pick three different teams from the same underperforming division to win on Tuesday? Am I experiencing toddler-induced Dad-brain, or am I just becoming crazy like a fox? Only time will tell. But one thing is certain: Zach Eflin has been a shining light for the Phillies so far in 2021, while “(player-popup #carlos-martinez)Carlos Martinez”:/players/carlos-martinez-14636’s Major League light is a few flickers away from going out completely.
Eflin has the swagger, the slider, and the stamina to give Philly a chance every time he takes the mound. He sports a 2.77 ERA and 1.000 WHIP, both easily the best marks of his career. He also enjoys career lows in both his walk rate (2.0%) and home run rate (3.0%). He’s very quietly off to a phenomenal start for the Phillies.
Martinez, meanwhile, is moving in the opposite direction. He has an MLB-worst four losses. He has given up 14 runs in 21 innings (6.00 ERA). He has only struck out 13 of the 91 batters he has faced, and his whiff rates and SO/9 are getting worse and worse with time.
The Cardinals offense started the season pretty hot, scoring 83 runs in their first 16 games (5.2 runs per game). But they have only scored 15 runs in their past six games (2.5 per game). St. Louis has been held to two runs or fewer in an astounding nine of its 22 games. The Phillies have not exactly lit the world on fire offensively, but first baseman Rhys Hoskins sure looks incendiary (two homers Monday, two homers Saturday, one homer Friday).
Beyond Hoskins and star outfielder Bryce Harper, I don’t trust Philadelphia to score a ton of runs. Basically, either take the Phillies’ moneyline or get the Hell away from this game. I wouldn’t bet on Carlos Martinez and the inconsistent Cards offense if you gave me 10-to-1 odds.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Pitching Matchup: Walker Buehler vs. Jeff Hoffman
MLB Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-105)
For a great team, the defending-champion Dodgers sure seem to be having a tough time. They have lost six of their last eight games, and they’re now tied with the Giants atop the NL West at 15-8. During this rough stretch, they have left an alarming amount of men on base, and a plethora of runners in scoring position. They have also used a staggering number of pitchers and position players during the spell (I don’t even want to list the total numbers, but as Arnold Schwarzenegger once said, “they were all bad.”).
But they’re still the best team in the world (right?). If any club can bounce back from a bad run, it’s the Dodgers. They have a superb rotation, a deep bullpen, a potent and aggressive offense, and a great defense. They have good coaching, good leadership, and good chemistry. Maybe the Padres (my value pick to win the World Series this year… humble brag) derailed them a bit—it’s not the end of the world, and LA doesn’t meet San Diego again until June. Time to get back in the W column.
Walker Buehler vs. Jeff Hoffman at Dodger Stadium seems like a good place to start. Buehler enters with a sparkly 2.16 ERA and 0.880 WHIP, as well as 21 strikeouts to just one walk. Hoffman, meanwhile, has been pretty solid overall—but the split stats do not look good for him. He has a 1.69 ERA/1.125 WHIP in three starts at home, but a 6.23 ERA/2.077 WHIP in his one road start (at Arizona). He also has a 1.80 ERA/0.800 WHIP in day games, but a 3.48 ERA/1.839 WHIP in night contests. So, I’m not brimming with confidence about Hoffman’s odds in LA on a Tuesday night, especially against the hungry and pissed-off world champions.
Thanks to the Dodgers’ recent tailspin, their spread odds are actually pretty decent. LA by two runs -105 looks like the best value spread on the board today, and it’s really not even close.
More Baseball Picks
Moneyline Parlay of the Day
Washington Nationals (-140) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Neutral Site; Max Scherzer vs. Trent Thornton) – see above. Scherzer is on one of his famous heaters, and he’s one of the most infamous Blue Jays killers in all the land. Toronto’s young sluggers won’t even know what hit them.
Atlanta Braves (-160) vs. Chicago Cubs (Ian Anderson vs. Trevor Williams) – see above. The Braves’ bats may finally be waking back up after a long NLCS hangover, and Ian Anderson just stifled the Yankees in the Bronx. The Cubbies’ skid continues.
Philadelphia Phillies (-110) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Zach Eflin vs. Carlos Martinez) – see above. Eflin has been brilliant, and Martinez has lost his luster. Hoskins and Harper might rub off on their teammates eventually.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-245) vs. Cincinnati Reds (Walker Buehler vs. Jeff Hoffman) – see above. The Dodgers will not lose seven of nine, especially not with Buehler vs. Hoffman at home.
Total Parlay Odds: +650
Bet: $75 |To Win: $487.50 |Total Payout: $562.50
Spread Parlay of the Day
Washington Nationals -1.5 (+115) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Neutral Site; Max Scherzer vs. Trent Thornton) – see above. You’re giving me +115 to bet on Scherzer and the Nats to beat an “opener” at a neutral site by two? Sign me up. The Nats offense has been bad, but they should be able to put up a few runs against the Jays’ pen.
Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+120) vs. Atlanta Braves (Ian Anderson vs. Trevor Williams) – see above. You may call it unoriginal to parlay the same picks as my Bets of the Day. But sometimes, it’s just the smartest move. I don’t like a ton of other games today. I do like Anderson—a lot. And Atlanta finally looks to be breaking out of its offensive slump.
*Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-216) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Zach Eflin vs. Carlos Martinez) – * The Phillies are getting a run here? I love that. Eflin is good, Martinez is no longer a viable option, and the Cardinals have failed to put up three runs in 41 percent of their games so far.
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-110) vs. Cincinnati Reds (Walker Buehler vs. Jeff Hoffman) – you had me at ‘Buehler vs. Hoffman at Dodger Stadium.’ LA might win by eight runs.
Total Parlay Odds: +922
Bet: $50 | To Win: $461 | Total Payout: $511
MLB Betting Odds
Image Credit: Imagn