MLB PrizePicks Predictions Today: Top Plays for Sunday, April 7
Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great fantasy pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.
In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.
PrizePicks is daily fantasy baseball made simple.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
If you haven’t signed up for a PrizePicks account, make sure to use the PrizePicks promo code ROTOBONUS and get a $100 deposit match.
MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Sunday, April 7
Yordan Alvarez MORE Than 7.5 Fantasy Points
Dane Dunning LESS Than 27.5 Fantasy Points
Bowden Francis MORE Than 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed
Austin Riley MORE Than 2.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
Ronald Acuna MORE Than 2.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
Yordan Alvarez MORE Than 7.5 Fantasy Points
Dane Dunning isn’t a terrible real-life pitcher, but he doesn’t have the strikeout stuff to stop Yordan Alvarez. He’s only had a 7.39 K/9, and Alvarez has had a 20.5% barrel rate with a 40.6% fly ball rate on a 61.9% hard-hit rate against righties. One swing of the bat smashes the PrizePicks projection, but we don’t need a home run to get eight fantasy points from one of the best hitters in baseball against a higher-contact pitcher.
Dane Dunning LESS Than 27.5 Fantasy Points
The Astros’ 5.2 implied total is the highest on the day outside of Coors. We have Dunning projected for 22.9 fantasy points, but negative points are certainly in play today for him in this very low-ceiling spot against one of the better offenses in baseball. Dunning’s lack of strikeout stuff with the Astros’ great plate discipline and the 45.1% hard-hit rate Dunning has allowed on a 78.8% contact rate is a sneaky-great spot for the Astros to exploit the opportunity.
Bowden Francis MORE Than 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed
It’s hard to say that a guy turning 28 in a few days isn’t ready for MLB competition, but Bowden Francis isn’t. He has great command, spotting his curve well and inducing chases on his sliders outside of the zone, but that fastball is pretty flat to the tune of a .545 ISO allowed. This amounts to a 14.7%% barrel rate allowed to righties against some really dangerous right-handed hitting in Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Anthony Volpe. Lefties are hitting him hard too, so Juan Soto and Anthony Rizzo should get theirs as well. This has homers and rallies written all over it.
Austin Riley MORE Than 2.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
Ronald Acuna MORE Than 2.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
Austin Riley and Ronald Acuna are in the same situation, facing Ryne Nelson, who has allowed a 12.5% barrel rate to righties on a 32.2% fly ball rate and 50.2% hard-hit rate. The two Braves are in an excellent spot for homers and extra bases in general given Nelson’s 6.01 K/9. We have them both projected for more than 2.5 total bases, so the DEMON boost is just free money with the respective 12.9% and 15.0% barrel rates they bring to the table.
All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.
This is a day to play small and take big risks. We shouldn’t be playing a high volume of tickets because we should be targeting higher-variance DEMON boosts on this slate where the best plays lie.
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