MLB PrizePicks Predictions Today: Top Plays for Wednesday, May 29th
Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great fantasy pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.
In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.
PrizePicks is daily fantasy baseball made simple, and our MLB PrizePicks tool makes the process even simpler.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
If you haven’t signed up for a PrizePicks account, make sure to use the PrizePicks promo code ROTOBONUS and get a $100 deposit match.
MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Wednesday, May 29th
- Yu Darvish MORE Than 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
- Braxton Garrett MORE Than 16.5 Outs
- Joey Estes MORE Than 15.5 Outs and 4.5 Strikeouts
- Shohei Ohtani MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
- Adam Duvall MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
Yu Darvish MORE Than 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
This can be scary because of how Darvish imploded against the Yankees in his last start, but he was pretty dominant in his previous 4 starts, not allowing a run in any of them. He’s only gone over 92 pitches twice this season — 99 on May 19th and 101 on May 12th — and went 7 IP in both starts. Projected by us for 95 pitches, you can see why we have him projected for 18.0 outs, making the DEMON boost a nice return for the play. Also, the Marlins suck. Their projected lineup has a .290 wOBA and .139 ISO with just a 5.9% BB rate against RHP this season, while Darvish has allowed just a .272 wOBA and 7.4% barrel rate to go along with a 19% K-BB rate. He has the skills, leash, and matchup to crack this PrizePicks projection.
Braxton Garrett MORE Than 16.5 Outs
Garrett is a weaker DFS play against a projected Padres lineup team who only has a 16.3% K rate against LHP, but Garrett has been really great going back to last season, and it’s not just a ballpark thing. He has a 19.4% K-BB rate and has allowed just a 7.7% barrel rate. And this season, he’s getting the volume, throwing 80, 90, and 95 pitches, respectively, over his 3 starts. He’s susceptible to power righties, but the Padres are a below-average power squad after Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado. We have Garrett projected for 17.1 outs in a matchup that provides him with a high floor and ceiling for volume.
As a bonus, Darvish+Garrett has a MORE than 10.0 combined strikeouts projection at PrizePicks, which isn’t terrible. We have them projected for a combined 10.3, but they could smash this if we get a pitchers duel into the 7th inning.
Joey Estes MORE Than 15.5 Outs and 4.5 Strikeouts
Putting money behind Estes makes me wanna puke in my shoes, but the Rays shouldn’t exploit his command and power-prevention issues very much. After Brandon Lowe and Jonathan Aranda, no Rays have barrel rates over the league average of ~8% this season against RHP. And Estes is getting volume, regardless of how poorly he pitches. He’s only had 3 starts this season, but he’s thrown 93 and 89, respectively, in his last 2, despite pitching poorly. His volume has amounted to 15 total Ks in 15.2 IP. We have him projected for 91 pitches, amounting to 16.3 outs (and 5 strikeouts). Estes isn’t a good pitcher, but these are two of the best plays on the board, according to our MLB PrizePicks tool, because of his leash.
Shohei Ohtani MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
Ohtani getting juice on 1.5 total bases is pretty much always a play to which we want exposure. Facing a reverse-splitsy lefty, David Peterson, making his season debut, there aren’t enough reasons for concern that this is a bad play on our part. Peterson allowed an 8.7% barrel rate to lefties in 2023, while Ohtani has a 15.8% barrel rate against LHP. We’re not even worried about the ballpark when Ohtani is projected by PrizePicks for 1.5 with a DEMON boost. If you’re interested, we have Ohtani projected for 2.4 total bases, which is pretty standard for him these days.
Adam Duvall MORE Than 1.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
Duvall against a lefty is just one of those special things in fantasy baseball that has no reasonable explanation, but it’s a thing. Duvall has a whopping 17.7% barrel rate against LHP, while MacKenzie Gore has allowed an 11% barrel rate to righties. Gore’s been really good this season, allowing just an 8% barrel rate to righties, but it’s still enough for us to project Duvall for 1.9 total bases. The DEMON boost is mom’s homemade gravy.
All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.
Get on the bus early today, as games are spread out and the better plays are mostly before the evening slate. But there are solid outs and total bases plays there too. Especially Justin Verlander if his projections slip down a bit, the Braves power righties against Gore, any Blue Jays that tickle your fancy against Chris Flexen, and whatever Jose Ramirez MORE than play we want against Ty Blach in Coors Field.
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