Monkey Knife Fight MLB Strategy: Monday, August 19th
Welcome to the weekly Monkey Knife Fight picks article, in which we are going to be doing all the research you need to make the best decisions possible.
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Now, let’s get to the article.
First Prop: SD @ CIN: 2/3 Rapid Fire
Trevor Bauer vs Eric Lauer (+1.5): Total Fantasy Points: The first part of this prop is one of the easier ones you’ll find on any slate. Bauer if far and away the better pitcher here and he owns the better matchup. The Padres strike out at a huge clip vs. RHP and are not the same lineup without Tatis in it. The Padres have a lower implied total by a full run and Bauer is only giving up 1.5 points. Just take Bauer and move on.
Aristides Aquino (+.5) vs Eugenio Suarez: Total Fantasy Points: If you don’t believe in hot streaks, you may not agree with me on this prop, but you are getting the better hitter in Aquino who is on a massive heater, and he’s getting the tiebreaker. This is a clear don’t overthink spot. Roll with Aquino and take the win.
Manny Machado (+.5) vs Phillip Ervin: Total Fantasy Points: This one isn’t a lock and load like the first two, but Machado is clearly the better hitter, although he does have a much worse matchup. Overall, I’m willing to take Machado because of the tiebreaker and the fact that he is twice the hitter that Ervin is.
Second Prop: CWS @ MIN: 2/3 Rapid Fire
Kyle Gibson (+.5) vs Ivan Nova: Total Fantasy Points: This spot is another lock and load. Kyle Gibson is far and away the better pitcher in the better matchup (which is clearly evident by the 2 run implied total difference by the team). I’d take Gibson if he were giving up 4.5 points here, and he’s actually the underdog. I’m on Gibson in this spot.
Max Kepler (+.5) vs Miguel Sano: Total Fantasy Points: This is another spot where you are getting the better hitter in the better spot. Nova is a bad overall pitcher, but he’s much worse vs lefties and Kepler is the overall better hitter than Sano. Additionally, Kepler gets the better lineup spot with the platoon split, and he’s getting the tiebreaker here. Take Kepler.
Eloy Jimenez (+.5) vs Jose Abreu: Total Fantasy Points: This prop right here is a tossup. Abreu and Jimenez are about equal hitters going up against a pitcher with some pretty extreme reverse splits. Gibson has been lights out vs righties this season; a fairly likely scenario here is that neither of these batters succeeds in getting a single point. This makes this pick simple: Pick the guy with the tiebreaker.
Third Prop: COL @ ARI: 2/3 Rapid Fire
Nolan Arenado (+.5) vs Trevor Story: Total Fantasy Points: What we have right here is essentially two equal hitters in the near exact same matchup. Neither Arenado or Story have the platoon split and are facing the same pitcher, so again I’m backing the player with the tiebreaker.
David Peralta (+.5) vs Charlie Blackmon: Total Fantasy Points: We have another spot where we are simply given two batters of equal talent. The massive difference is that Peralta is going up against a terrible pitcher in Chi Chi, while Blackmon is going up against an above average pitcher in Gallen. Gallen has been reverse splits so far this season and Chi Chi has struggled greatly vs lefties.
Eduardo Escobar (+.5) vs Ketel Marte: Total Fantasy Points: This one was the toughest of all the props today. Marte is the better hitter with a .394 wOBA vs RHP compared to Escobar with a .338 wOBA. Overall, I just don’t think this is enough to give up the tiebreaker (yes, it’s that simple). Take Escobar.
Good luck on your props today, and if you don’t see them up on MKF, check back later. We will try and keep these up all day (they should only change because of injury news). If any of these props do get taken down, we will try and get a new one up in this article as soon as we can.