NBA Daily Grind Down: Wednesday 3/20

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-03-20 18:10:28

The RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NBA schedule each night. This article will break down the defense vs. position rankings for every single game and give you analysis on where you can exploit these matchups.

While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy basketball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, minutes, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections.

Another jam-packed Wednesday night full of NBA games that are just waiting to be dissected. There are quite a few injuries that you need to look out for tonight as well as some great matchups. Chris Paul managed to tame the Grind Down curse last night, so we will see if Al Horford can break the curse once and for all.

NOTES:

1) Defense vs. Position rankings are how well a team defends against a certain position. The ranking is for the team that it is listed under, NOT the opponent.
2) Rankings are as follows: 30 is the worst defense against a position, 1 is the best.
3) Last 10 Game Data is collected at the start of each week. It will be updated each Sunday for the upcoming week.

Miami @ Cleveland – 7:00 pm EDT

• The Heat are solid defensively and the Cavs will be without two of their best players in Kyrie and Waiters. It’s hard not seeing this one turn into a blowout, but with the injuries to the Cavs, there are some possible value plays in Shaun Livingston, C.J. Miles, and even Daniel Gibson.
• The Cavs aren’t very good defensively and it’s hard to see Lebron James and Dywane Wade not produce if they get the minutes. The problem is that they will likely be up big in this one and you can never count on solid minutes in a blowout. For my money, I am going to play it safe and stay away.

Toronto @ Charlotte – 7:00 pm EDT

• Toronto really struggles against SG and PF and that happens to be the two positions that are playing surprisingly well for the Bobcats. Both Gerald Henderson and Josh McRoberts are putting together some of the best games in their careers and if you can get them for a decent price, they both have the matchup. I also think Kemba Walker could be a decent play as he plays well at home.
• Charlotte’s defense is a bit of a joke, they are terrible against every position and it’s not like the Nuggets or Warriors who have bad rankings because of their tempo. The Bobcats barely score at all and they still give up a ton of fantasy points. Look for Kyle Lowry, Rudy Gay, and Amir Johnson to all fill up the stat sheet. A solid sleeper in this one is Jonas Valanciunas.

Milwaukee @ Atlanta – 7:30 pm EDT

• This could be a big night for both Josh Smith and Al Horford. The Bucks are absolutely terrible on the inside. However, the absence of Ersan Ilyasova might actually help their defense as Dalembert will likely guard Horford and then they will put Sanders on Josh Smith. Either way, I think the matchup favors these two.
• Atlanta’s defense can be really good some games and absolutely terrible others. The way the Bucks are rolling offensively, I think it’s safe to take them tonight. I think both Samuel Dalembert and Larry Sanders benefit from Ilyasova being out and make good plays. I am going to fade Monta tonight though, only because of how high his price is.

Orlando @ New York – 7:30 pm EDT

• Orlando got worked over last night in Indiana and will likely have a repeat performance against the Knicks tonight. Carmelo Anthony is probable tonight, but I wouldn’t take an injured Melo, he is one embarrassing play away from sitting out the rest of the game. For the Knicks, I think Raymond Felton has a decent matchup and Kenyon Martin should see plenty of minutes with Chandler and Thomas both out.
• The Knicks have pretty solid rankings on defense and it’s hard to trust any of the players on the Magic right now. The smart money would be to avoid these players tonight.

Boston @ New Orleans – 8:00 pm EDT

• Boston has really picked up it’s defense since Avery Bradley came back from an injury and they really don’t have any terrible rankings. I would keep your eye on Anthony Davis status for tonight’s game and play Ryan Anderson if he can’t go. Other than that, there isn’t too much to be excited about for the Hornets.
• The Hornets struggle against most positions and I think Kevin Garnett should come out well rested and put up a solid game tonight that ends up being around 30 fantasy points. I also like the way Jeff Green has been playing, but he is likely going to be too expensive to take after that monster game against the Heat.

Brooklyn @ Dallas – 8:00 pm EDT

• Talk about two teams without much fantasy appeal. The Nets are very solid on defense and the way the Mavs players trade off good games, it’s hard to recommend any of them. Maybe a flier on Chris Kaman but that’s about it.
• On the other side of the ball, the Nets are kind of the same way. Deron Williams usually is pretty consistent and then the rest of the team is really up and down. I like the matchup for Deron so if you can get him for a solid price, I think he can pay off tonight.

Utah @ Houston – 8:00 pm EDT

• The Jazz have pretty solid rankings in a few positions and then seem to struggle against PG’s and PF’s. However, I don’t trust Motiejunas yet and Mo Williams likes to pressure the ball so I could see Jeremy Lin racking up the turnovers in this one. If you are going to take any Rockets, I would rather have Chandler Parsons and Omer Asik even though the numbers say otherwise.
• With Houston, they don’t really care about defense, so they give up fantasy points to all positions. I like the value for Al Jefferson today because he is just so cheap. There is also value for Mo Williams and Gordan Hayward so it might not be a bad day to take a couple of Jazz guys.

Oklahoma City @ Memphis – 8:00 pm EDT

• The Thunder don’t have too many weaknesses on defense and the two positions they have average rankings in are the positions of Tony Allen and Tayshaun Prince and I don’t trust either of them. I think Zach Randolph could have a decent game, but not a ton of upside there.
• As for the Grizzlies, they are solid all around on defense and typically make uptempo teams come down and play much slower than they are used to. I think this ends up meaning less shots for the Thunder and I really don’t see Westbrook or Durant doing enough to justify taking their high salaries.

Golden State @ San Antonio – 8:30 pm EDT

• This should be an interesting game if the Warriors can keep it close. Plenty of matchups to like on the Spurs tonight, but I think my favorite two are Kawhi Leonard and Tiago Splitter. They are both young guys that get pretty consistent minutes. Also look for Manu Ginobili to make the most of his minutes.
• For the Warriors, it’s not a bad idea to keep riding the hot hand of Andrew Bogut if you can get him for a decent price. He should fill up the stat sheet once again. Outside of him, maybe take a shot at Steph Curry, but then again, coach Pop loves to shut down the other team’s best player.

Washington @ Phoenix – 10:00 pm EDT

• Two bad teams facing off is usually fantasy basketball gold because the games are usually close and you can usually find value pretty easily. For the Suns, Goran Dragic is never a bad play because he is one of the only Suns that actually gets consistent playing time.
• On the other side, you have to like the matchup for John Wall, Nene Hilario, and Emeka Okafor. John Wall might be a little bit out of your price range though. Deciding between Nene and Okafor is always tough, but I am going to give a slight edge to Okafor, just a gut feeling.

Philadelphia @ L.A.Clippers – 10:30 pm EDT

• Last game of the night features a struggling team and a team that just lost to the Kings. I expect a much better performance from the Clippers tonight and I love Chris Paul matchup against the 25th ranked Sixers. DeAndre Jordan could also be worth a look if you play GPP’s. Low price with a good amount of upside.
• The Clippers defense is pretty solid and even though Spencer Hawes has been on fire, the Clippers shut down Centers. I would stay away from the Sixers tonight.