NBA DFS Grind Down: Top FanDuel and DraftKings Picks (12/19)

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2023-12-19 19:03:11

Following a wild 11-gamer on Monday, the NBA is slowing things down a bit with a reasonable 4-game slate on Tuesday night. Just one of the eight teams in action (Memphis) is playing the second half of a back-to-back, but they’re getting a much-needed reinforcement tonight with the return of Ja Morant. We’ve also got some big injury news with Victor Wembanyama already having been ruled out because of an ankle injury, while a few more noteworthy players are carrying questionable tags into the day.

Without further ado, here’s a deep dive into this 4-gamer on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

NBA DFS Preview for Tuesday, December 19

Memphis Grizzlies

• Pace of Play: 102.1 (12th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 102.7 (30th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 109.9 (10th)

Notable Injuries

• Derrick Rose – OUT
• Luke Kennard – OUT
• Marcus Smart – OUT
• Steven Adams – OUT
• Brandon Clarke – OUT

The Grizz were obliterated in OKC by the Thunder last night, and tonight, they’ll be in NOLA for their second game in as many nights. This has been a nightmare of a season for Memphis thus far, but perhaps Morant’s return tonight will give them a little juice. Ja was suspended – not injured – for the season’s first 25 games, so we have him projected for 32 minutes in his return tonight. We’re already paying full price for Morant here at above $9,000 on both sites, and there’s plenty of uncertainty with the minutes. I don’t think he’s the worst large-field tournament dart throw on such a short slate, but he’s really just a roll of the dice.

It’s safe to assume Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson to remain heavily involved offensively, though the usage rates for both players will come down with Ja back in the mix. They’re both hovering around 30% usage on the year, and both are priced up for their roles without Morant. Jackson will likely crack my tournament player pool, but I’ll wait for Bane’s salaries to normalize before going back to the well. Last night’s chalky cheapies – Santi Aldama and Vince Williams – won’t look quite as appealing tonight. Both players saw their salaries rise overnight, and there isn’t as much usage to go around with Morant back.

Xavier Tillman started at the 5 last night with Bismack Biyombo out and logged 25 minutes. Biyombo is off the injury report tonight, though, so this center rotation looks like one to avoid.

New Orleans Pelicans

• *Pace of Play: 102.5 (11th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 113.4 (14th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 111.1 (11th)

Notable Injuries

• Zion Williamson – QUESTIONABLE
• Naji Marshall – PROBABLE
• Larry Nance – OUT
• Matt Ryan – OUT

UPDATE: Zion is now questionable. If he’s out, the Pelicans suddenly become the value team du jour, with Ingram, McCollum, and Valanciunas popping as some of the best plays on the slate. Murphy and Marshall become much better values, while Dyson Daniels is a candidate to draw a spot start, as he did last week with Williamson out.

The Pelicans smacked the Spurs by 36 points on Sunday, and tonight, they’re favored by 8.5 points at home over the visiting Grizzlies. Most of NOLA’s rotation is intact at the moment, which means Zion Williamson (28.8%), Brandon Ingram (29.7%), and CJ McCollum (24.8%) will hoard most of the usage. Zion’s production has been all over the place this season, yet it’s hard to think he’s not underpriced at $7,900 on both DraftKings and FanDuel this evening. The issue here is the matchup, as the Grizzlies are allowing the fewest points in the paint (43.2) per game this season, and we know Williamson does most of his damage inside.

McCollum typically provides a solid floor with a questionable ceiling, while Ingram is an intriguing, similarly priced pivot away from Zion at what could be lower ownership in GPPs. Naji Marshall (questionable) sitting out could open up some more minutes for Trey Murphy and Herb Jones, but none of these guys look all that alluring if Marshall suits up. Jonas Valanciunas (1.26 FP/min.) has been in terrific form of late, and he’s still projecting decently for the dollar at $7,200 on DK.

San Antonio Spurs

• Pace of Play: 104.5 (3rd)
• Offensive Efficiency: 104.8 (28th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 115.5 (24th)

Notable Injuries

• Victor Wembanyama – OUT
• Charles Bassey – OUT

The biggest injury news on the slate comes from San Antonio, as Victor Wembanyama will miss tonight’s game with an ankle injury. The shorthanded Spurs are easily the biggest underdogs on the slate (-16.5) as they head to Milwaukee for a date with the Bucks. Charles Bassey is also out, so San Antonio is lacking bigs here.

Zach Collins has been banished to a bench role in recent games, but we’re expecting him to make his triumphant return tonight with Wemby out. The Spurs are very likely to get housed in this one, but Collins (1.14 FP/min.) is just way too cheap around the industry, assuming he cracks the first five. I think he’s a plug-and-play in all formats, even with the blowout risk. With Bassey also out, we’re projecting Sandro Mamukelashvili to play 16 backup minutes. The $3,000 salary goes a long way on DK, which puts him on my radar over there. If the game blows out, perhaps he gets closer to 20.

Wembanyama leads the Spurs in usage. When he’s off the floor, we predictably see big bumps for both Keldon Johnson (+4.3%) and Devin Vassell (+2.9%). Neither guy is all that cheap, but they are cheap for the usage they should generate tonight. It’s also worth mentioning that Milwaukee plays at one of the fastest paces in the league while ranking in the bottom half in defensive rating, so it’s not a bad spot on paper despite the large spread. Jeremy Sochan (0.82 FP/min.) has been a disappointment in year two, but the expected pace of the game suits him well enough. He and Malaki Branham (0.72 FP/min.) are passable tournament values, but not core plays by any means.

Milwaukee Bucks

• Pace of Play: 104.3 (4th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 118.5 (2nd)
• Defensive Efficiency: 113 (18th)

Notable Injuries

• Jae Crowder – OUT

It seems like we say this every day, but the 132.75 implied team total for the Bucks tonight is among the highest of all time. San Antonio is a woeful defensive team, even with the transformative Wembanyama on the floor, and they’re absolutely ghastly when he’s on the bench.

It’s a wonderful spot for Giannis Antetokounmpo (1.64 FP/min.) and Damian Lillard (1.26), but the only question is whether they’ll see enough minutes to pay off their salaries. This game could certainly be over by halftime, but both stars are still projecting as outstanding point-per-dollar plays on both sites. We’ve seen Khris Middleton (1.17 FP/min.) inching closer to 30 minutes per game of late, and he’s still reasonably priced around the industry for that role. He’ll likely be the first Buck to hit the bench if (when?) this game gets out of hand, which makes him a better cash play than GPP option, in my view.

Brook Lopez (0.96 FP/min.) just keeps chugging along, while Bobby Portis (1.00) remains highly productive in his limited minutes off the bench. Malik Beasley is playing heavy minutes most nights, but he’s also heavily reliant on his shots falling. Guys like MarJon Beauchamp and Cameron Payne could theoretically pay off in tournaments if you want to play the blowout angle, but it’s generally a good rule of thumb to not twist yourself into knots banking on garbage time minutes.

Phoenix Suns

• Pace of Play: 100.3 (25th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 113.5 (13th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 112.8 (17th)

Notable Injuries

• Bradley Beal – OUT
• Josh Okogie – OUT
• Damion Lee – OUT

The Suns’ newest Big 3 experiment could be going better. Bradley Beal will again be sidelined for at least a couple of weeks, this time by an ankle injury. Phoenix is also still without Josh Okogie and Damion Lee, yet they’re listed as 7.5-point favorites over the Blazers tonight in the PNW.

As you’d expect, Devin Booker (32.4%) and Kevin Durant (32.2%) do most of the heavy lifting offensively with Beal on the bench. Both stars are back under $10,000 on DK tonight, while they’re just over the mark on FD. I don’t have a strong lean toward one over the other, as they both look like standout options at their respective positions. On a short slate, I’m not even against the idea of pairing Booker with KD in tournament builds if you can make the money work.

Nassir Little drew the start and played about 23 minutes in the last game in place of Beal, while Eric Gordon topped 30 minutes off the bench. Gordon and Grayson Allen are the safest bets for minutes among the secondary pieces here, though they both look a bit priced up for their lower-usage roles. The last name worth a mention here is Jusuf Nurkic, who’s up to his usual tricks (1.28 FP/min.) playing around 30 minutes a night. Nurk is essentially the same play as Jonas Valanciunas on this slate, though Portland does rank a dismal 28th in points in the paint allowed per game.

Portland Trail Blazers

• Pace of Play: 100.9 (19th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 104.8 (28th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 112.4 (14th)

Notable Injuries

• Shaedon Sharpe – QUESTIONABLE
• Robert Williams – OUT

Shaedon Sharpe is iffy to play for the Blazers tonight with an adductor injury, which is big news. The second-year swingman is playing a big role for Portland this season, though his minutes have been a bit less certain since guys like Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons returned from their own injuries. Portland’s 111.25 implied team total is the second-lowest on tonight’s 4-gamer.

If Sharpe sits, we’ll likely see Toumani Camara return to the starting unit in his place. That’s not too exciting, but his absence would also open up a little more usage for Simons (29.1%), Grant (26.4%), and Malcolm Brogdon (26.9%). Simons and Grant are affordable enough to look like solid options at their respective positions even if Sharpe plays, while they’ll be close to smash plays if he doesn’t. Deandre Ayton (13.8%) gets zero usage for this team, which gives him an awfully low floor despite his declining salaries. This is a #RevengeGame for both starting centers, but it’s still hard to get too excited about #DominAyton here.

I’m happy to buy all of your Scoot Henderson stock, but he’s really not playing enough minutes off the bench these days to grade out as a particularly appealing value. Perhaps a few more minutes will flow his way if Sharpe is out, but the rookie is really just a large-field GPP flier in any scenario.

Boston Celtics

• Pace of Play: 100.5 (24th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 116 (5th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 107.5 (4th)

Notable Injuries

• Kristaps Porzingis – QUESTIONABLE
• Luke Kornet – OUT

The Celtics say Kristaps Porzingis is questionable to play tonight in San Francisco as a result of his lingering calf injury. This is the last game on the slate, so things could get complicated if we don’t get an update on his status this afternoon. Boston is favored by 5.5 points on the road here, and this is probably the most important injury situation on the board.

If Porzingis is out, Al Horford (0.98 FP/min.) should slide into the starting unit and play a significant role. Horford isn’t really viable if KP suits up, but he’s one of the better values on the slate at any position if he doesn’t. See? Complicated! Porzingis has been hovering around 30 minutes of late while playing through this injury, and I think the slate is small enough to make him playable if he gives it a go here. The matchup is favorable enough, though we’re not really getting much of a discount, either.

Porzingis sitting would also lead to usage bumps for Derrick White (+3.6%), Jayson Tatum (+3.2%), and Jaylen Brown (+2.5%). It’s crazy to see that White is now almost as expensive as Brown around the industry…but it’s justified based on his recent play. The minutes should be secure tonight, as he’ll be busy defending the Warriors’ guards in this one. You can also easily argue Tatum and Brown are both a bit cheaper than they should be. They’re squarely in play regardless of Porzingis’ status, with Tatum grading out as one of the better spends on the slate.

Jrue Holiday (0.89 FP/min.) hasn’t been as productive with his new team as he was in Milwaukee last season, but he’s also down to $6,700 on DK and $6,800 on FD. Holiday isn’t a bad last piece, but he’s also not much of a priority.

Golden State Warriors

• Pace of Play: 102.1 (12th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 112.5 (16th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 112.4 (14th)

Notable Injuries

• Draymond Green – OUT
• Chris Paul – QUESTIONABLE
• Gary Payton – OUT

The Warriors will be without Draymond Green for the next several weeks as a result of his indefinite suspension, while Chris Paul is questionable for tonight’s game with an illness.

Stephen Curry (31% usage, 1.29 FP/min.) has been a bright spot in an otherwise glum season for Golden State, and he’s fresh off of one of the worst games he’s played in years. Steph hasn’t shown much of a ceiling all year, yet he’s down to $9,000 on DK and $8,700 on FD. The matchup stinks, but I don’t hate the idea of buying low on Steph in tournaments. We’ve also seen Brandin Podziemski replace Andrew Wiggins in the starting unit over the past few games. Podz (0.98 FP/min.) has been productive all year, while Wiggins (0.8) broke out of an extended slump in the last game. The price feels a tick high for Wiggins, though, while Podziemski remains a solid midrange value target.

Rumors of the demise of Klay Thompson appear premature, as he’s really found his shooting stroke over the past 3 games. Targeting a scoring-dependent player against Boston isn’t generally my cup of tea, though, and the sites were quick to price him back up a bit. Jonathan Kuminga is playing limited minutes despite a starting role in Green’s absence, which gives him limited appeal at above $5,000 on both sites.

Kevin Looney and Dario Saric are essentially splitting minutes, while Trayce Jackson-Davis randomly played 18 minutes in the last game. Moses Moody could be worth a shot as a cheapie if CP3 takes the night off, but he wouldn’t be a smash value in that scenario, either.

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