NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 12/19/22
Nine games on tap to start the week with plenty of injury news that will shape the slate throughout the day as we have over ten questionable guys with an impact rating of 8 or higher in the situation room. The Raptors, Timberwolves, Lakers, and Hornets are on a back-to-back so keep an eye out for their official injury reports later today.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. Knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Dejounte Murray and John Collins are both questionable to return from their ankle sprains and if both do return it would be hard to trust any ATL starter to have a ceiling game and it would make Okongwu a less appealing value play. Bogdan Bogdanovic would likely start if either of them remain out.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is questionable for OKC and with Giddey out he would be a top play if he ends up active. If he remains out I’d consider Isaiah Joe a top value play along with Lu Dort.
- Tim Hardaway and Dwight Powell are questionable for Dallas so Bullock would likely if THJ sits while Chris Wood would almost certainly start again if Powell remains out.
- Deandre Ayton is questionable for Phoenix and if out Bismack Biyombo would be a solid value option especially with Landale out with a concussion and all the other starters would get nice usage bumps.
- Jusuf Nurkic and Jerami Grant are questionable for Portland so we should see Justise Winslow and Drew Eubanks start at PF/C if both end up out with Eubanks being a top value play on both sites. Either sitting would also make Lillard, Simons, and Hart more appealing plays looking at nice usage bumps.
- Rudy Gobert is questionable so look for Naz Reid to continue to start if he remains out with Knight as his primary backup. Kyle Anderson is also Q and if out McDaniels and the other forwards would all absorb his minutes.
- Keldon Johnson is questionable for the Spurs and if out all the other starters would get nice usage bumps while McDermott, Bates-Diop, and the other available forwards would all absorb his minutes. Romeo Langford is also Q but his minutes would just be handled by all the available guards/wings.
- OG Anunoby is questionable to return from his long absence and if he does it would lower the usage and ceiling of the other starters. Gary Trent is officially “questionable” but everything is sounding like he’ll remain out so we’re keeping him doubtful with injuries to both thighs that “don’t seem to be getting much better” according to Nick Nurse.
- Patrick Beverley and Furkan Korkmaz are a couple of other questionable players whose minutes would just be absorbed by the other available guards on LAL and PHI.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Anthony Davis is out indefinitely so Thomas Bryant should start at C and is a top value play on both sites. LeBron James is also out so all the starters are looking at huge usage bumps and Russell Westbrook should be heavily involved even if he continues to come off the bench. Austin Reaves will also be out while Wenyen Gabriel is off the injury report and will help at the forwards spots today.
- Devin Booker is out for the Suns so look for Landry Shamet to start at SG and be a solid value play while Paul and Bridges get big usage bumps especially if Ayton ends up out as well. Jock Landale joins Payne, Johnson, and Washington on the sidelines for PHO so Biyombo should get most of his minutes while Saric could get back in the rotation.
- The Thunder will be without Giddey and Bazley again while JRE remains out as well and Tre Mann was sent to the G-League so OKC could be really thin if SGA also ends up out. Joe, Wiggins, or Omoruyi will likely start for Giddey with Pokusevski likely starting at C.
- Terry Rozier is likely out with a hip injury that he was unable to return from last night so Kelly Oubre will likely start for him.
- Khris Middleton is out with knee soreness so Jevon Carter will likely start while Holiday and Giannis get big usage bumps as the top offensive weapons. Joe Ingles is also on track to make his season debut and will help at the wing spots off the bench.
- OG Anunoby could return for TOR while Gary Trent is looking more doubtful so, for now, FVV, Barnes, and Siakam are the only TOR players I’d trust in DFS today. Malachi Flynn has a chance to start today as he did in the 2nd half of last game and if so he would be in play for value especially if Anunoby and Trent both remain out.
- Clint Capela remains out so Okongwu will continue to start at C and we’ll see if Murray or Collins are able to return as both would likely start if so otherwise Bogdanovic would likely start for either of them with Hunter starting at SF or PF.
- Kelly Olynyk is out so Walker Kessler will likely start at C with Azubuike backing him up.
- Lamar Stevens remains out for CLE so Isaac Okoro will likely draw another start with LeVert also helping more at SF.
- Larry Nance is likely out so Naji Marshall will get most of his bench minutes and is a decent value play, especially on DK as he should see 25+ minutes.
- Josh Green and Maxi Kleber remain out so Bullock and Wood will continue to handle most of their minutes and both could be looking at big bumps if THJ or Powell end up out.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- LaMelo Ball ($8,000) remains way too cheap and I will continue to consider him a must play until he gets closer to $9k especially in a great matchup with SAC that is sitting at the highest projected game total of the slate. CHA could also be without Rozier who left with a hip injury yesterday so Ball could be looking at an even bigger usage rate and higher ceiling so take advantage of this mispricing while you can.
- Also in that game I’d consider Domantas Sabonis ($9,200) a top cash game play as he draws one of the best matchups for centers and is coming off b2b games of over 55 FP and his price only went up $300.
- Lu Dort ($6,100) has big upside with Giddey and Bazley out for OKC and possibly SGA too but I’d still consider him an excellent target even if SGA plays. If SGA is out then Isaiah Joe ($4,200) would likely start and be one of my favorite value plays while Kenrich Williams ($3,900) and Aaron Wiggins ($3,900) would also be in play for value.
- Thomas Bryant ($5,800), Walker Kessler ($5,600) and Onyeka Okongwu ($5,200) are the top value centers today and I’d rank them in that order as far as upside goes as the Hawks could get back John Collins to limit Okongwu’s upside while Kessler draws a tough matchup against CLE and likely won’t see over 30 minutes even as a starter. Thomas Bryant saw 32 minutes as the starter last game going for almost 30 FP so he should see the most minutes of the value C’s which gives him the most upside and safest floor.
- With Booker out Landry Shamet ($3,900) should draw the start at SG and is an excellent source of value today as he saw over 30 minutes as a starter a few games ago going for over 28 FP. If Ayton ends up out Bismack Biyombo ($5,200) should start and would have more upside than usual with Jock Landale out tonight although I prefer Biyombo’s $3.9k price on DK.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Thomas Bryant ($4,200) is the free square on DK tonight as he’s $1,600 cheaper than FD and with a 5-6x floor and 8-10x value upside I wouldn’t be looking to fade him today.
- Landry Shamet ($3,700) is also close to a free square as he should start for Booker and see 30+ minutes giving him a great chance to smash that price.
- LaMelo Ball ($8,400) remains way underpriced and I would expect almost every cash game lineup to have him today as his floor/ceiling combo is just way too high to fade in a great matchup and a chance Rozier is out too.
- Markelle Fultz ($5,100) comes at a nice $1.2k discount to FD and has gone for over 26 FP in three straight games giving him a solid likely 5x value floor and in this same matchup with ATL three games ago he went for almost 48 FP.
- Lu Dort ($5,500) also comes at a nice discount to FD and is a top play for the price especially if SGA ends up out while Isaiah Joe ($4,000), Kenrick Williams ($4,100), and Aaron Wiggins ($3,400) all remain solid value plays.
- One more DK-specific play I really like is Dennis Schroder ($3,800) who will have to carry more offense with AD and LBJ out and has gone for over 25 FP in b2b games seeing around 30 minutes in each. Russell Westbrook ($7,300) is also in play with LBJ out now as he should see 30+ minutes even off the bench and Lonnie Walker ($4,000) is another super strong value option now.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or fewer minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn