NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 12/20/22
Just five games today but we do end the night with a great matchup of Morant vs Jokic sitting at a 235.5 game total and just a 1.5 point spread so that game will surely swing some payouts today. The Nuggets are going to be interesting as they tip at 10PM but have two starters questionable so hopefully we learn their statuses early while the Heat have been nice enough to rule out Lowry and Martin already. The Jazz and Suns are on back-to-backs so keep an eye out for their injury reports.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. Knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Jeff Green are all questionable for Denver and they’re the only game that tips after 9PM so if we don’t learn their statuses before lock make sure to have swap options if you use any of those three. I’d expect Jamal Murray to draw decent ownership so be ready to swap to Bones Hyland or someone else from DEN/MEM if he gets ruled out while KCP out could give Christian Braun a start at SG and he’d be a decent value play with a not a ton of upside. Jeff Green sitting would give more minutes to Gordon, Jordan, Cancar, and Nnaji.
- Until we get the Suns’ injury report I’d consider Devin Booker questionable after sitting yesterday with his groin injury and if he remains out look for Damion Lee to start again with Landry Shamet also seeing more minutes. (Update: Booker is OUT)
- Javonte Green is questionable for Chicago and his absence would give more minutes to Williams and Jones. (Update: Green is OUT)
- Jimmy Butler was added as questionable around 4PM EST with a stomach illness and if out I’d consider Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo must plays on both sites. (Update: Butler is OUT)
- Kristaps Porzingis was downgraded to Q at 4:30PM EST and if out Beal and Kuzma would get big usage bumps while Gibson and Gafford would handle the C minutes. (Update: Porzingis is OUT)
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- The Warriors are already without Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins but will also be without Donte DiVincenzo and JaMychal Green who are both out with an illness. Poole, Klay, and Dray are looking at big usage rates tonight while Moses Moody will join the starting five and is a solid value play.
- Kyle Lowry and Caleb Martin are out for Miami so look for Max Strus and Nikola Jovic to start again while Butler, Herro, and Adebayo have higher ceilings and will have to carry most of the offense.
- Kelly Olynyk remains out for Utah (along with Sexton) so Walker Kessler will likely start at C and be a decent value play. Mike Conley has no injury designation and will play the b2b.
- Cameron Payne and Jock Landale likely remain out for Phoenix so Lee, Shamet, and Biyombo will continue to benefit.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- With the chance of Murray, KCP, and/or Green being out for Denver I like locking in Nikola Jokic ($12,500) and Bruce Brown ($5,800) for cash games as we know they’ll be playing and both are already solid plays but both could be even better plays especially if Murray ends up out. Aaron Gordon ($6,900) is a bit pricier than I like but would definitely be in play for cash games if Murray and/or Green are out while Bones Hyland ($4,900) would be a top value play if Murray sits.
- The Suns are dependent on the status of Booker but if he is out again then Chris Paul ($8,100) would be a top cash game PG option while Torrey Craig ($5,000), Damion Lee ($4,100), and Landry Shamet ($3,900) would all be excellent value plays.
- With Lowry and Martin out I’m liking Tyler Herro ($8,200) the most for the price from Miami but I also really like Victor Oladipo ($4,800) who has seen 30+ minutes in his last two games played and should be looking at similar minutes today, especially with two starters out.
- If Ty Jerome ($4,300) starts for GSW I’d consider him as a top cash game value play while Jordan Poole ($8,300), Klay Thompson ($7,300), and Draymond Green ($6,500) will all be very busy today with Curry, Wiggins, and DiVincenzo out and I’d try getting at least two from that group in your cash game lineup. Jonathan Kuminga ($4,200) is also looking at solid minutes and should be in consideration if you need a cheap SF play. (Update: Moses Moody ($3,700) will start for GSW and is a top value play now)
Looking at DraftKings:
- Nikola Jokic ($11,800) and Bruce Brown ($5,500) are still the first two guys I’m locking in for cash games and I’m making sure to have space to swap to Bones Hyland ($5,000) if Murray gets ruled out in time to do so.
- If Booker sits I’d be looking to use both Damion Lee ($4,300) and Landry Shamet ($4,400) in cash games while Torrey Craig ($5,600) would have big upside but not a must play for me.
- For Miami the three studs are much closer in price compared to FD so I like using at least two of Jimmy Butler ($9,200), Tyler Herro ($8,800) and Bam Adebayo ($8,400) while Victor Oladipo ($4,900) remains at a great price for guard savings.
- Ty Jerome ($3,500) remains too cheap to fade if he draws the start at PG while Klay Thompson ($6,600) and Draymond Green ($5,900) come at nice discounts to FD and are my top Warriors plays. Jordan Poole ($8,100) is just a couple hundred cheaper than FD and still remains a great high-upside play. (Update: Moses Moody ($3,300) will start for GSW and is a top value play now)
- I also want to mention Bradley Beal ($7,900), DeMar DeRozan ($8,200) and Nikola Vucevic ($7,200) as guys that are underpriced today and very strong cash game targets along with Jalen Duren ($4,800) who is $1k cheaper than FD and has gone for 23-38 FP in six straight games.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or fewer minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA Twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn