NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 2/23/23
We’re back! Hope you had a relaxing All-Star Break and enjoyed the Mac McClung show as much as I did, and maybe got a nice nap in during the actual All-Star game. We have a great nine game slate today and already have a confirmed starting lineup, as the Lakers will stick with their same starters from their last game before the break. A few big names are on track to return from injury today in Jaylen Brown, Jamal Murray and OG Anunoby, while we already have some starters ruled out in Damian Lillard, Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons, Aaron Gordon, Andrew Wiggins, and Collin Sexton. There’s already some great value available and there could be more depending on what some starting lineups look like today, so let’s get back on the grind and start the 2nd half of the DFS NBA season strong.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Jamal Murray, OG Anunoby, and Thaddeus Young are all officially questionable but we’re treating them as probable as Murray has already said he’s going to play, while OG and Thad are both expected to play. Murray’s return takes Brown and newly added Jackson off the DFS radar, and hurts the upside of guys like KCP, Porter, and Jokic in an already tough matchup with Cleveland. OG being available will take some usage away from the other starters, and it’s going to be hard to trust any Raptors play to have a ceiling game with such a deep, healthy roster now.
- Jeremy Sochan is questionable with quad soreness, and if out we’d likely see either Devonte Graham or Doug McDermott join the starting lineup with Keita Bates-Diop getting a lot of the PF minutes. No Sochan would leave the Spurs with ten players available, so Barlow would likely get 12-17 minutes at the forward spots too.
- Dyson Daniels is questionable to return from his ankle sprain, but with Josh Richardson there now Daniels’ status isn’t very relevant.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- The Celtics are as healthy as they’ve been in a long time, as only Gallinari is on their injury report tonight, so Jaylen Brown will return from his facial fracture which should move White back to the bench, and Brown’s presence will hurt the usage a bit for the other starters. Boston’s opponent Indiana experimented with starting McConnell over Nembhard last game and got destroyed early, so they went back to Nembhard starting the 2nd half and I’d expect them to go with him today.
- Jamal Murray will return for Denver, but Aaron Gordon will remain out, so Vlatko Cancar will likely start at PF and is a decent value play especially on DK for $3,700. Newly added Reggie Jackson will be available off the bench while Zeke Nnaji remains out. For Cleveland, Ricky Rubio will rest on the front end of their b2b tomorrow, and Love is out of the picture as he has signed with Miami.
- Memphis remains without Adams and will also be without Luke Kennard today, so Konchar and the other wings will absorb his time, and we’ll see who starts at center as they could go back to Xavier Tillman for more size against Embiid after going with Clarke/Jackson last game.
- OG Anunoby is expected back for Toronto, so either he or Gary Trent will likely start depending on if OG is eased in off the bench or starts right away, and I’d expect Jakob Poeltl to start at center for Achiuwa now.
- The Spurs will be without Vassell, Roby, Langford, Birch, and likely Tre Jones as he’s doubtful. Malaki Branham should continue to see around 30 minutes as the top starting guard, while Devonte Graham remains a very strong value play looking at 21+ minutes even if he comes off the bench. Keita Bates-Diop should continue to start at one of the forward spots, and could be looking at big minutes if Sochan ends up out.
- Collin Sexton is out for Utah, so Jordan Clarkson should get most of the PG minutes, and Ochai Agbaji is a likely candidate to join the starting lineup at SG and is a decent value play. We’ll see if newly added Kris Dunn and Frank Jackson are available today, as they could see minutes right away given the lack of guard depth in Utah now.
- Andrew Wiggins is out for personal reasons, so Donte DiVincenzo should start for him, and Anthony Lamb will see a bump in minutes off the bench. Poole, Klay, and Draymond get slight usage bumps and will continue to carry most of the offense with Curry also still out. Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt will remain in the starting lineup for the Lakers alongside Russell, LBJ, and Davis.
- The Kings will get Malik Monk back from his ankle sprain, while Portland will be without Damian Lillard, Jerami Grant, and Anfernee Simons. Keon Johnson and Shaedon Sharpe will get most of the PG minutes with one likely starting, while Reddish, Thybulle, and Little and strong candidates to round out the starting lineup.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Portland is one of my favorite teams to target in cash games, as they draw a nice matchup with the Kings, and there’s a ton of usage available with Lillard, Simons, and Grant all out. Shaedon Sharpe ($4,500) is one of my favorite value plays of the slate likely to see 30+ minutes especially if he draws the start, while Matisse Thybulle ($4,200) and Cam Reddish ($4,100) are both great value plays as well.
- The Jazz are another top team to target, as they draw a home matchup against OKC that currently has the highest total of the slate with just a one point spread. With Sexton out, Jordan Clarkson ($6,400) is going to be busy today and is one of my favorite p/$ plays of the slate, as he should push for a 33%+ usage rate and has 6-8x value upside today at that price. Ochai Agbaji ($3,900) could draw the start for Sexton, and if so I’d consider him in play for value if you need a cheap SG, while Lauri Markkanen ($8,300) is still very affordable for someone with 45-55 FP upside.
- Some other cheap plays I like on FD today include Robert Williams ($6,200), Jaden Ivey ($5,900), Franz Wagner ($5,800), Kevon Looney ($5,700), Malaki Branham ($5,500), Bennedict Mathurin ($5,200), and Harrison Barnes ($4,600).
Looking at DraftKings:
- The center position has some great value on DK today, as Walker Kessler ($5,700), Zach Collins ($5,600), and Kevon Looney ($4,400) all come at $1k+ discounts to FD, so I will almost certainly have two of those three in my cash game lineup. Check out our Boom Fantasy bonus offer for new signups, where I like betting the over 25.5 pts+rebs+asts line for Collins today.
- Shaedon Sharpe ($3,800), Cam Reddish ($3,600), and Matisse Thybulle ($3,500) remain top value plays, while Malaki Branham ($4,500) is $1k cheaper than FD and will be hard to fade at that price given how thin the Spurs are at guard today. Killian Hayes ($4,700), Devonte Graham, and Talen Horton-Tucker ($4,800) are other value guards to consider today.
- Tobias Harris ($4,900) is at his cheapest salary of the season, and even though he’s scored over 30 FP just once in his last seven games, he is still in play at that price if you need a cheap forward as he should still see 30+ minutes in a projected close game with Memphis. Other forwards I like for the price include Kelly Olynyk ($5,300), Brandon Clarke ($4,500), Keita Bates-Diop ($4,300), and Lu Dort ($4,400).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Getty Images