NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 2/7/23
Only six games today, but we could witness some pretty cool NBA history as LeBron James needs just 36 points to become the all-time leading scorer, and I wouldn’t bet against him doing it tonight at home against OKC. Speaking of OKC, they along with Chicago and Brooklyn are on a back-to-back so look for their first injury reports later. Simmons is on track to play for the Nets while Dinwiddie and Finney-Smith will be unavailable. Also returning from injury is Devin Booker, who has missed the last 21 games, and even on a minutes restriction tonight his return will make it hard to trust any Suns players to have ceiling games, so they’ll likely be a team I avoid in DFS.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- LeBron James is technically questionable, but I’d expect him to play as he’s on three days rest and doesn’t have a game tomorrow, but if he does somehow sit, then Anthony Davis becomes a top play of the slate and guys like Westbrook, Schroder, and Hachimura become much more appealing plays.
- Rudy Gobert, Kyle Anderson, and Jordan McLaughlin are questionable for Minnesota, so Naz Reid would likely start if Gobert sits, while Prince or Nowell would likely start if Anderson sits with McDaniels sliding to PF. McLaughlin’s minutes would be handled by all the available guards if he ends up out.
- RJ Barrett is questionable with an illness, so Immanuel Quickley would likely start again if he sits, while Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle would get usage and ceiling bumps.
- DeMar DeRozan is questionable for Chicago, and if out I’d consider Zach LaVine a top play of the slate along with Nikola Vucevic, while Dosunmu and White would be much more appealing value plays.
- Jamal Murray is questionable for Denver, and if out Bruce Brown would likely start and be a solid play, while all the other starters would get nice usage bumps.
- Dejounte Murray is questionable with a migraine, and if out Trae Young would be a top play of the slate while the other starters would be more appealing plays too, and Holiday or Griffin would likely join the starting lineup for Murray.
- Alex Caruso is questionable after sitting yesterday, but his minutes would just be handled by White and Dragic, while Zeke Nnaji is questionable for Denver but his status isn’t very relevant with all the regular starters on track to play today.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- The Nets will have a similar look as yesterday with Dinwiddie and Finney-Smith being unavailable, with the only difference being Ben Simmons who said he’ll play today and could start, along with Watanabe being ruled out. Cam Thomas has been insane the last couple games going for over 40 points in each, so we could see him draw the start over Harris or even Simmons if they want to ease him back in after missing five games.
- Devin Booker return should move Craig back to the bench, and as previously mentioned I’m not looking to use Booker or any other Suns player outside of maybe Ayton at their currently salaries considering the usage/ceiling hit they’ll take with Booker back in the mix.
- Dillon Brooks is back from his one game suspension, and for now we’re assuming Xavier Tillman draws the start at center but there’s still a chance they start Clarke.
- Austin Rivers and Mo Bamba are out due to suspension so Nowell will see a bump in minutes, while M. Wagner and Bol Bol will handle Bamba’s time. Austin Reaves is on track to return for the Lakers so he’ll help at the SG/SF spots off the bench.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Just like yesterday, Edmond Sumner ($5,300) will be a cash game lock for me as his price didn’t change after going for 36.5 FP in 32 minutes, and even with Simmons back, he’s still just too cheap for the 6x+ value upside he brings especially with Curry still out. Cam Thomas ($6,500) saw a $500 price bump from yesterday after going for over 50 FP again, so he should see 30+ minutes regardless if he comes off the bench or not, and given his likely 30 FP floor and massive ceiling, I would definitely consider him for cash games even with the price increase and chance he doesn’t start.
- NYK/ORL has the closest spread of the slate at just 1.5, so I like getting one of if not both Jalen Brunson ($7,900) and Julius Randle ($9,100) in your main build, as both guys are underpriced given the 50+ FP ceiling they each have, especially with the chance Barrett is out again. On the Magic side I like Paolo Banchero ($7,500) or Wendell Carter ($6,700) depending on your salary and positional needs.
- DAngelo Russell ($7,300) gets a rematch with Denver from last game in which he went for over 35 FP in just 29 minutes, so if this game can stay more competitive and he sees 35+ minutes I think he has a great shot at 40+ FP today and is too cheap for that upside. Minnesota is also without Rivers and possibly without Gobert/Anderson/McLaughlin who are all questionable, so Russell could be looking at a nice usage bump if Gobert or Anderson end up out. I like betting the over 20.5 points line for Russell using RG’s No House Advantage bonus offer for new signups.
- If Xavier Tillman ($5,300) continues to start for Memphis then I’d definitely consider him for cash games, as he’s still a bit too cheap for the likely 27+ minutes he’d see in a home matchup against a Bulls team on a b2b. Dillon Brooks ($5,100) is also a decent value play as he’s still at one of his lowest salaries of the season and will be on five days of rest after his suspension.
- Other cheap plays I like today include Jonas Valanciunas ($6,100), John Collins ($5,600), DeAndre Hunter ($5,600), Jaden McDaniels ($5,300), Isaiah Hartenstein ($5,000), Jalen Suggs ($4,800), and Ayo Dosunmu ($4,400).
Looking at DraftKings:
- I’m just sitting here laughing at the salary of Edmond Sumner ($4,100) who dropped $400 overnight, and like pretty much everyone else today will be the first guy I lock in to cash games. Cam Thomas ($5,200) is also laughably cheap as he only went up $200 after going for almost 60 FP again, and is still way too cheap regardless if he starts or not and is a cash game lock for me today.
- Brandon Ingram ($7,100) is one of my favorite DK plays today as he gets a home matchup with ATL in the second highest projected total of the slate, and with b2b game over 45 FP he is too cheap given the 7-8x value ceiling he brings in this matchup today. Jonas Valanciunas ($5,700) is at one of his cheapest salaries of the season, and even though he’ll likely see only 22-28 minutes, he still has enough upside at that price to consider for cash games.
- Xavier Tillman ($4,600) only went up $200 from last game and remains a top value option if he continues to start, and Jaren Jackson ($7,300) is my next favorite p/$ target from Memphis.
- Nicolas Claxton ($7,700), Wendell Carter ($6,000), and Isaiah Hartenstein ($4,400) are other top p/$ center plays today and I will likely use one of them in my main build along with Tillman if I don’t end up using Valanciunas as well.
- More plays I like for the price include Jalen Williams ($5,500), DeAndre Hunter ($5,200), Jaden McDaniels ($4,600), Ayo Dosunmu ($4,300), Patrick Beverley ($3,900), and Aaron Wiggins ($3,600).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
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