NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 1/23/23

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2023-01-24 00:04:46

Solid seven game main slate today that should be pretty high scoring, as every game currently has a projected total at 230 or higher, with the last two games sitting at over 240. We’re also going to see the return of Jonathan Isaac from his years long recovery from a brutal knee injury, and the Bucks are on track to get both Giannis and Middleton back in the lineup today while their Pistons opponents are already going to be without Isaiah Stewart and possibly Hayes as well. There’s plenty of other injury news to worry about and keep an eye out for the Portland and Memphis injury reports later today as both are on a back-to-back.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Ja Morant and Steven Adams are questionable in the final game of the night, so we could be looking at some serious swapportunity if either get ruled out after lock. Tyus Jones would be a must play in all formats if Morant gets ruled, while Jaren Jackson & Brandon Clarke would be very strong targets if Adams sits. I’d also be looking to get exposure to Desmond Bane as he will carry a lot of the offense if either Q guys are out.

• LaMelo Ball is questionable with his ankle and wrist injuries, and if he remains out then I’d consider Terry Rozier a top play of the slate. Rozier is still priced too low given the usage bump he’d get with no Ball, and showed his 50+ FP ceiling when given PG duties last game, so hopefully we learn Ball’s status before lock as CHA’s game tips at 9PM. Ball’s absence would also put Hayward, Washington, and Plumlee in play as all are priced very reasonably and would have to carry more offense.

• Rudy Gobert and Taurean Prince are questionable for Minnesota, so Naz Reid would likely continue to start if Gobert remains out, while Prince sitting would give more time to McDaniels, Anderson, and Rivers.

• Killian Hayes is questionable for Detroit, and if out Jaden Ivey would get most of the PG minutes while Diallo and Burks would get most of the SG time. Joseph and McGruder could also be in the rotation. (Update: Hayes is OUT)

• Jabari Smith is questionable for Houston, and if out Tari Eason would likely start for him again and be a top value play coming off a 25+ FP game in 26 minutes as a starter last game. KJ Martin would also be a more appealing play while Sengun would continue to have a massive ceiling. (Update: Smith is OUT)

• Robert Williams is questionable for rest, so Al Horford could be looking at a bigger workload at center if he sits, and Clint Capela is in a similar spot as Onyeka Okongwu is questionable for Atlanta, so Collins and Kaminsky would be the center depth behind Capela if he sits. (Update: Williams is OUT, Okongwu is OUT)

• Goran Dragic is questionable with an illness, and if out his time would be handled by Caruso and White. (Update: Dragic is OUT)

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• The Bucks should be at full strength today as Giannis and Middleton are both probable to play, so Connaughton will likely go back to the bench and Holiday will have a tougher time going for 50+ FP as he has in four of his last five games. The Pistons will be without Stewart, so Duren will get most of the center minutes and is a solid DFS target, and Bey will likely start at one of the forward spots. (Update: Connaughton will start and Middleton will come off the bench)

• The Celtics will be without Smart and Brogdon, so look for Derrick White to start at PG and be a top DFS target today with just Pritchard as his PG competition. With Robert Williams out the Celtics are starting Blake Griffin alongside Horford tonight.

• With Kevin Porter out at least another week, KJ Martin should continue to be a regular starter with Green and Gordon sliding to the PG and SG spots.

• Jonathan Isaac will return for the Magic and get around 8-10 minutes off the bench, so for now he won’t have a big impact on any of the main Magic players, but when he eventually starts seeing 15+ minutes he will start eating in to the usage of the other forwards.

• DeAndre Hunter is now out so look for Bogdanovic or Griffin to start for him and both will see a nice minutes bump.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• MIN and HOU are going to be top cash game targets for me today as both teams are dealing with injuries and the prices of the players who benefit the most just haven’t increased enough. Starting with MIN, DAngelo Russell ($6,500) is the same price as last game after he went for over 34 FP for the third time in four games, and even if Gobert plays I’m still going to continue to use him until he gets over $7k. Anthony Edwards ($8,900) is still somehow under $9k after dropping over 70 FP last game, and in the same matchup today his ceiling is just too high to fade at that price, especially if Gobert remains out.

• For Houston, Alperen Sengun ($8,400) went up $600 from last game and is now priced much more accordingly to his recent production with three straight games of 53+ FP. He’s still at a price that I would strongly consider for cash games as he’s seeing 37+ minutes in his last few games, draws the same matchup he just dominated for over 56 FP last game, and could get another usage bump if Jabari Smith ends up out again. KJ Martin ($5,300) is the same price as last game, and having gone for 23+ FP five of his last six games, he is a great mid-range DFS target who has a pretty safe 5x value floor and has shown 6-7x upside when given the 30+ minutes he will see today. Jalen Green ($7,600) is coming off one of the worst games I’ve ever seen for someone who got over 30 minutes, as he went for just 7 FP, but he’s not going to shoot 3 for 13 again with zero rebounds and no steals or blocks, so at a likely reduced ownership I don’t mind jumping right back on him in cash games or at least in a few GPP lineups.

• Derrick White ($5,500) should be a popular PG/SG cash game target as the Celtics are down both Smart and Brogdon, so White should get most of the PG minutes and is just too cheap for someone with a 35+ FP ceiling. Jayson Tatum ($11,100) and Jaylen Brown ($8,400) will also have to carry more offense and I’d try getting at least one of them in your main build today.

• ATL/CHI should be a very close and high scoring, so I like getting a piece of this game with DeMar DeRozan ($8,000) from CHI or John Collins ($6,000) from ATL, as both are looking a bit too cheap today. DeRozan has gone for 60.6 FP and 44.7 FP in two previous meeting with ATL this season, and he remains at his 2nd lowest salary of the season, so take advantage of this price for someone with a 5-6x value floor and 7-8x ceiling. Collins is more of a price point play, as he’s at his same $6k price for the fourth straight game, and could be looking at a boost in minutes if Okongwu ends up out. He does come with a sub-20 FP floor, but if he can get going early and stay out of foul trouble I think he’s just a bit too cheap for the 35+ upside he can produce.

• If Ball ends up out for CHA I will be all over Terry Rozier ($8,100) in my main build, while Gordon Hayward ($5,200) and PJ Washington ($6,500) will also be in strong consideration depending on how other injury news breaks today and my positional needs / salary available. For Utah I still really like the price of Mike Conley ($5,700) if you need a pretty safe 30+ FP guy at the PG spot, while Lauri Markkanen ($8,600) and Jordan Clarkson ($7,300) have big time ceilings in a great matchup with CHA.

Looking at DraftKings:

• DK has a lot more value compared to FD today, at least until we learn the status of all the questionable players. Jalen Duren ($4,500) comes at a $1,200 discount to FD, and is one of my favorite plays for cash games as he’ll have to get most of the C minutes with Stewart out and should easily pay off that salary. Keegan Murray ($4,400) is another guy I much prefer on DK as he’s $900 cheaper than FD, and in the highest projected game of the night with just a 1.5 spread against MEM, Murray should see 35+ minutes and easily pay off his price just on the pure volume he’ll get and he could smash that salary if he can hit a few threes. Mark Williams ($3,100) and Zach Collins ($3,800) are projecting as top p/$ options as both should see around 20 minutes and will likely hit 5-6x value so keep them on your radar if you need to fill a final position in your favorite build

• DAngelo Russell ($6,700), Anthony Edwards ($9,300), Alperen Sengun ($8,400), and KJ Martin ($5,000) remain my favorite p/$ plays from the MIN/HOU game, and I will also consider Kyle Anderson ($6,300) a top play if Gobert sits as he’s $1k cheaper than FD. Tari Eason ($3,800) will almost certainly make my cash game lineup if Smith sits for HOU, and Eric Gordon ($4,400) is a much better play on DK compared to FD as he’s $800 cheaper and should easily go for 5-7x value.

• Walker Kessler ($5,800) remains one of the biggest discounts on DK compared to FD as he’s $2,100 cheaper, and today he gets one of the best matchups for big men against Charlotte, so I won’t be fading him at that price in this matchup. Mike Conley ($5,300) also remains at a great price and is a super solid cash game play.

• Derrick White ($5,400), DeMar DeRozan ($8,900), and John Collins ($5,600) all remain at great prices and will be in serious consideration for my main build, along with Terry Rozier ($8,000) and PJ Washington ($6,000) if Ball is out.

• Some other plays I like for the price on DK include Desmond Bane ($7,200), Jordan Clarkson ($6,800), Steven Adams ($5,900), Josh Hart ($5,100), Jeremy Sochan ($4,600), Ayo Dosunmu ($3,500), and Romeo Langford ($3,300).

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Imagn