NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 1/6/23
Big eleven game Friday slate to end the week with plenty of big names already ruled out and a good amount of unknowns that will surely change the slate throughout the day. The Clippers & Nuggets are on a back-to-back after “playing” each other last night as it was one of the least competitive games of the year and Murray has already said he’ll be available today after playing just 21 minutes yesterday. The Clippers starters all played under 20 minutes each so there’s a chance Kawhi is available so keep an eye out for their first injury report later.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- For now we’re considering Kawhi Leonard doubtful and Paul George questionable but those are very tentative with each playing under 20 minutes yesterday so there’s a good chance those both get changed to P when we see their first injury report later. If either do end up out then Terance Mann would likely start while Powell and Kennard would see bumps in playing time too. (Update: Leonard is Q along with George)
- Darius Garland is questionable with his thumb sprain and his status is going to be huge for today as Donovan Mitchell is already ruled out. If Garland is active and full go he’d have to be considered a top play for just $8k on both sites, but if he ends up out then Caris LeVert would be my top play of the slate especially for under $6k on DK, while Mobley and Allen would see big usage bumps and be top targets too.
- In the first game of the night Jerami Grant is questionable with a quad contusion and if out we would likely see either Jabari Walker or Trendon Watford start at PF, while the other starters would see decent usage bumps in a nice matchup with the Pacers. (Update: Grant is IN, Payton is OUT)
- Larry Nance and Willy Hernangomez are both questionable for the Pelicans so Jaxson Hayes could be looking at a big role off the bench if both are ruled out, while Naji Marshall is already seeing a big bump in minutes with Zion out and could push for 35+ minutes if either of those bigs are out.
- Caleb Martin is questionable for Miami and if out I’d expect Max Strus or Haywood Highsmith to start for him. (Update: Martin is now doubtful, Tyler Herro is now questionable)
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- In the last game of the night the Hawks remain without Capela so Onyeka Okongwu should continue to start in a nice matchup with the Lakers. Austin Reaves, Lonnie Walker, and Troy Brown will be out for LAL so this is an absolute smash spot for LeBron James as he just put up over 75 FP against ATL a week ago and he will have to carry even more offense with no Reaves, Walker or Brown, and this game is currently the highest projected total of the slate at 241.5 and just a 1.5 point spread.
- WSH/OKC should also be a close matchup and both teams have new injuries that will change the starting lineups. Bradley Beal re-injured his hamstring and is out for at least a week so Corey Kispert should draw the start while Kuzma and Porzingis get big usage and ceiling bumps. OKC will be without Jaylin Williams as he sprained his ankle last game, so we could see either Mike Muscala, Kenrich Williams, or Darius Bazley start at C and whoever does will be a very strong value play.
- Joel Embiid will miss another game with foot soreness so PJ Tucker and Montrezl Harrell will likely get most of the center minutes with Tyrese Maxey likely starting again.
- Jrue Holiday and George Hill are on track to return for MIL after missing time with illnesses so we’ll see who gets the start at PG as Holiday may continue to come off the bench until he’s back up to speed with Jevon Carter continuing to start. Jalen McDaniels and Pat Connaughton should continue to start for Hayward and Middleton respectively in that game.
- Devin Vassell will undergo a knee procedure and is out indefinitely so Romeo Langford should continue to start at SG but doesn’t offer much upside.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- I’m starting my main build with LeBron James ($11,200) as his 70+ FP ceiling in this matchup is just too high to fade with all the Lakers injuries around him and if this game stays close and high scoring throughout as expected I think we could see him hit 80+ FP. Thomas Bryant ($6,300) is also looking like a great play as he dominated this same matchup a week ago going for over 45 FP in 33 minutes, and his opposing center Onyeka Okongwu ($6,200) also had a great game the last time he faced LAL going for almost 40 FP in 42 minutes so if you need a pretty cheap center with high upside today I’d look to this game.
- With Vassell out for the Spurs and potentially Richardson too, Keldon Johnson ($6,800) is a super solid play at a great price in a projected high scoring and competitive game with DET sitting at a 236.6 total and just a 1 point spread. Johnson has been seeing around a 30% usage rate with Vassell out the last few games and has averaged around 35 FPPG the last four games, and if he starts picking up more steals and blocks I think he has a 45-50+ FP ceiling today with a likely 35 FP floor.
- Naji Marshall ($4,800) actually went down $100 in salary from last game where he saw 32 minutes as the starter for Zion and went for over 26 FP. He only made 5 of 12 FG attempts and had 4 turnovers that game but his solid rebounding and assists keep his floor high so if he can make a few more shots and limit the turnovers he has at least a 30 FP floor and is just way too cheap for a player with that solid of a floor/ceiling combo.
- With Embiid out I really like Tobias ($6,600) who went for over 37 FP in 38 minutes last game with no Embiid and should be looking at similar minutes and a similar 35+ FP floor at a great price. Jalen Brunson ($7,800) is another player looking at huge minutes with no Barrett as he’s seen 40 and 38 minutes the last two games and his price only went up $300 from last game even after going for over 51 FP.
- Keep Josh Hart ($6,000) on your radar as a solid mid-range play if Grant gets ruled while Caris LeVert ($6,600) is already a solid play with Mitchell out but would jump to my top play of the slate if Garland also ends up out.
Looking at DraftKings:
- LeBron James ($10,700) is still my top overall play while Keldon Johnson ($6,800) and Naji Marshall ($5,000) remain too cheap given their expanded roles and will be in my main build on DK.
- Thomas Bryant ($6,200) and Onyeka Okongwu ($5,700) also remain at great prices and I don’t mind using both in a last-game hammer stack with LeBron. If you want to go cheaper at C I really like Jalen Duren ($4,900) who comes at a $1k discount to FD and has a safer floor with Bagley out now. Duren has gone for 5-6x value over his last two games and is at his cheapest salary in over two weeks so take advantage of this price in a great matchup with the Spurs. Daniel Gafford ($4,600) is another great center option for under $5k if you need even more savings.
- Tobias Harris ($6,600) and Jalen Brunson ($7,900) remain in cash game consideration at those prices while Caris LeVert ($5,800) comes at an $800 discount to FD and would rightfully be one of the highest owned players on DK if Garland gets ruled out as he’s already a super solid play at that price with Mitchell out.
- Some other players I like for the price on DK include Gary Trent ($5,800), Tre Jones ($5,700), Killian Hayes ($5,500), Jalen Williams ($4,900), Jalen McDaniels ($4,800), Lu Dort ($4,800), Ayo Dosunmu ($4,200), Seth Curry ($3,500), and Mike Muscala ($3,400).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
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