NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 3/9/23
We have six games on today’s slate, and all but one have projected totals over 230 currently, and the majority have spreads of 3.5 or less, so we’re in for a high scoring night in DFS. It’s also likely to be high scoring as the Nets are providing a lot of value as they will be without three starters and two key bench players, and the Pistons are getting a couple starters back but still currently have just 10 players available and remain a top team to target today. No teams are on a back-to-back so we have all the initial injury reports, and there’s only four relevant questionable tags currently and only one of them doesn’t play in the first wave of games, so injury news should be mostly accounted for before lock.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Jalen Brunson is the lone questionable player not playing in the early games, as the Knicks are the only 10PM game tonight, so there’s a good chance we won’t know his status until after lock. Immanuel Quickley would likely start if Brunson remains out, and even though he’s priced up a bit on both sites, he’d still likely see 35+ minutes in the projected highest scoring game of the slate that currently has just a 3.5 point spread, so Quickley’s upside would be immense and I’d expect a lot of lineups to be late-swapping to him if Brunson sits.
- Jordan Clarkson & Walker Kessler are questionable for Utah after both missed last game, so we’d likely see Ochai Agbaji start if Clarkson or Kessler sit, as they can slide Markkanen and Olynyk to PF/C and use Agbaji at either SG or SF with Horton-Tucker at PG. If both are out then Lauri Markkanen becomes a top play of the slate as he’d push for 40 minutes and have a 50+ FP ceiling, while Olynyk, THT, and Dunn would all be in play depending on your positional needs. (Update: Clarkson is OUT, Kessler is IN)
- Aaron Nesmith is questionable with hip soreness that’s kept him out the last two games, and if out again Jordan Nwora should continue to start and be a low upside value play as he’s seen around just 20 minutes as a starter the last two games. (Update: Nesmith is IN)
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Brooklyn is waving the white flag against Milwaukee as they will be without Spencer Dinwiddie, Cameron Johnson, Nicolas Claxton, Royce ONeale, and Ben Simmons. Two of Seth Curry, Joe Harris, and Cam Thomas will almost certainly join the starting lineup, while Nerlens Noel or DayRon Sharpe will start at center. With the available Nets today Cam Thomas sees a team high 7.7% usage bump for a 37.1% total usage rate, although it is just a 32 minute sample size, but if he does find his way in to the starting lineup I’d consider him a top play for under $5k on both sites. There is some blowout risk, but Mikal Bridges has legit 55+ FP upside today with so much usage available and he should easily see over 40 minutes if this game can stay relatively close by the 4th quarter.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo is out for Milwaukee with hand soreness, so look for Bobby Portis to start for him and be a very strong play, while Jrue Holiday is back and is also a top play getting a nice usage bump with Giannis out. Khris Middleton could stay in the starting lineup especially with Giannis out, and he too is in play now for cash games.
- The Pistons should get back Killian Hayes and Jalen Duren today, and I’d expect at least Hayes to start while Duren should likely start although they could stick with Wiseman. Bogdanovic, Burks, Diallo, and Stewart are all out so look for Livers and Bagley to continue to start, and all the starters should be looking at big minutes as they currently have just ten players available.
- Kevin Porter is out with a thigh contusion, so Daishen Nix is likely to start at PG as TyTy Washington is in the G-League, and Nix has started before when Porter sat. Green, Tate, and Christopher can all help with some PG minutes too.
- Wendell Carter remains out for Orlando, so look for Moe Wagner to keep starting at center and be a strong value play, while Gary Harris is off the injury report and should get his starting spot back with Suggs coming off the bench.
- Andrew Wiggins remains out for personal reasons along with Ja Morant, so Donte DiVincenzo and Tyus Jones should continue to start in the GSW/MEM game.
- DeAaron Fox is off the injury report and good to go for the Kings, so Mitchell goes back to the bench and is off the DFS radar.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Moe Wagner ($4,400) is my favorite p/$ play as he’s just way too cheap as the starting center with Carter out, as he’s gone for 28.2, 27.9, and 35.1 FP his last three games, and his price hasn’t changed at all during that stretch. Add in the matchup with Utah that is sitting at a 233 total with just a 3.5 point spread, and Wagner has a clear path to 30+ minutes and 35+ FP upside, so I won’t be fading him in cash games and his easy 5x value floor and 8x+ value upside.
- With Wagner being a PF on FanDuel, I like using either Nerlens Noel ($3,800) or DayRon Sharpe ($4,400) for value at center, with whoever starts between the two being by far the preferred play. If you want a little less risk and a likely safer floor at center, then Mark Williams ($5,500) is a strong option as his price went down $1,000 from last game, and he gets a nice matchup with Detroit who he put up 33.7 FP the last time he faced them. Marvin Bagley ($6,000) and Xavier Tillman ($6,000) are other strong p/$ cash game options at the PF/C positions.
- Jalen Green ($6,800) is one of my favorite p/$ plays at the PG/SG spot, as his price went down $400 from last game, and now he gets the benefit of Kevin Porter being out along with a nice matchup with Indiana that is currently tied for the highest projected total of the slate. Green saw 37 minutes last game so he looks to be off any kind of minutes limit after his return from injury, and with four games of 30+ FP in his last five, I think he’s just a bit too cheap given the matchup and usage bump he’ll see with Porter out, along with him being at his lowest salary in over a month.
- Klay Thompson ($7,500) is also at his lowest salary in over a month after seeing a $300 price drop from last game, and he has an elite ceiling against Memphis in the closest projected game of the slate sitting at just a 2.5 point spread. Tyus Jones ($7,500) is a tough call today as he still has 50+ FP upside as the starting PG, but at that price he would need at least 40 FP to be worth it, so depending on what the rest of your lineup looks like he’s not a must play for me, as I prefer spending a bit more to get Haliburton, Curry, or Fox, or to go cheaper with Green or Seth Curry ($4,200) at PG today.
- We’ll see who starts between Joe Harris ($4,300), Seth Curry ($4,200), and Cam Thomas ($4,700) today, as whichever two who do start would be top value plays of the slate and close to cash game locks for me. Thomas would be the exception as a cash game option even if he comes off the bench, and he should almost certainly see 25+ minutes today, and could push for 35+ if the Nets get blown out or they go with him to close the game. Mikal Bridges ($9,000) and Dorian Finney-Smith ($5,600) are solid plays depending on your positional needs, with Bridges being the preferred target as he could go absolutely nuts with so much usage available today.
- With Giannis out now, Jrue Holiday ($8,300) and Bobby Portis ($6,600) become top cash game plays, while Khris Middleton ($7,800) is priced up now but still has 45+ FP upside especially if he remains a starter.
Looking at DraftKings:
- The Nets are all discounted compared to FD, and they could have four starters priced at $4,200 or less today if they go with Seth Curry ($3,500), Joe Harris ($3,400), and either Nerlens Noel ($3,300) or DayRon Sharpe ($3,000) at center. Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,200) should easily pay off that price at a huge $1,400 discount to FD, and Cam Thomas ($4,600) is in play for cash games at that price even if he’s the 6th man today. We can only play four Nets max though, and Mikal Bridges ($8,500) is still at a great price for his ceiling today, so depending on who starts we’re going to have to choose who to leave out in cash games, and just based on ceilings I’m leaning Harris and Curry as the odd men out, with Bridges, Finney-Smith, Thomas, and whoever starts at center as my favorite p/$ plays for them today.
- Moe Wagner ($5,500) isn’t as much of a must play as he is on FD for me as he’s only center eligible on DK, and there’s a lot of comparable centers in that price range like Mark Williams ($6,000), Xavier Tillman ($5,900), Draymond Green ($6,300), Mitchell Robinson ($5,600), and Jalen Duren ($5,000), who all have similar FP ranges as Wagner today. Instead I like going with whoever starts at center for Brooklyn for $2k+ salary savings, or paying a bit more for Jaren Jackson ($8,600) or Domantas Sabonis ($9,900).
- Jalen Green ($6,400) remains at a great price and is a top cash game play at one of the guard spots, while Daishen Nix ($3,000) is an intriguing value play as he’ll likely start for Porter, and he has shown 20+ FP upside when given 25+ minutes. I like betting the over 23.5 points line for Jalen Green over at No House Advantage where that link will take you to our promo offer for new signups.
- With Giannis out now, Jrue Holiday ($8,100) and Bobby Portis ($6,600) become top cash game plays, while Khris Middleton ($7,200) is priced up a bit now but still has 45+ FP upside especially if he remains a starter.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
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Good luck today!
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