NBA DFS Projections Preview: November 29
The Kings, Rockets, and Raptors are on back-to-backs today, so we’ll get their initial injury reports later, but we still have plenty of injury news from the 7 games on today’s slate.
“(player-popup #cj-mccollum)CJ McCollum” is back! He said on his podcast that he would return today from his collapsed lung/cracked rib injuries that kept him out over 3 weeks. “(player-popup #jamal-murray)Jamal Murray” also has a chance to return from his hamstring injury that’s also kept him out over 3 weeks, and along with his questionable tag, the Nuggets have 2 other starters listed questionable currently.
Let’s check out all the news and notes before some DFS picks!
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RotoGrinders, as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled out, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends, on RotoGrinders.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. So knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for the upcoming slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- LeBron James has his usual questionable tag with his calf contusion, and as 7.5-point road favorites in Detroit, all signs point to him being available for the Lakers.
- Kevin Durant and Grayson Allen are questionable for Phoenix, and if Durant sits, I’d consider Devin Booker a top spend-up for cash games. Keita Bates-Diop would likely start for him again, while “(player-popup #josh-okogie)Josh Okogie” would likely start for Allen if both Q guys sit.
- Jordan Clarkson and Kelly Olynyk are questionable for Utah, so all of Collin Sexton, Talen Horton-Tucker, and “(player-popup #ochai-agbaji)Ochai Agbaji” would help cover Clarkson’s time if he’s out. Olynyk being out would give more minutes to John Collins, Omer Yurtseven, and Walker Kessler, and with “(player-popup #lauri-markkanen)Lauri Markkanen” already out, either Q guy sitting would make guys like “(player-popup #keyonte-george)Keyonte George”, Simone Fontecchio, and Collins much more appealing plays.
- Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, and Jamal Murray are questionable for Denver, so their starting lineup could go a variety of ways depending on who is available. Reggie Jackson would almost certainly keep starting if Murray remains out, Justin Holiday would likely start for Gordon, and “(player-popup #deandre-jordan)DeAndre Jordan” would probably start again if Jokic sits. If all three Q guys are out, I would consider Jackson, Michael Porter, and Jordan top cash game targets.
- Tari Eason is questionable with leg soreness on the back-to-back, and if out Jeff Green would get most of his time.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the CourtIQ tool, where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) rates are for any player with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Notes & Analysis
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS, as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day. So make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Fred VanVleet and JaeSean Tate are out for Houston on the b2b, so Aaron Holiday is a top candidate to start at PG and would be a top value play of the slate if so. Eason (if active) and Jeff Green will handle most of Tate’s time, while all the starters get nice usage bumps with no FVV.
- Cam Reddish is probable to return after missing 3 games with a groin injury. I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts right away or is eased in a bit off the bench with “(player-popup #max-christie)Max Christie” continuing to start. Rui Hachimura, “(player-popup #jarred-vanderbilt)Jarred Vanderbilt”, and “(player-popup #gabe-vincent)Gabe Vincent” remain out.
- Bradley Beal remains out for Phoenix, so Eric Gordon should continue to start. Nassir Little is also out to be with family for the birth of his daughter.
- Kelly Oubre, Danuel House, and Jaden Springer remain out for Philly, so “(player-popup #nicolas-batum)Nicolas Batum” should continue to start, and the main bench guys keep their slight bump in minutes.
- With CJ McCollum likely back, it’s going to be hard to trust any Pelicans to have a ceiling game, and Dyson Daniels is now off the DFS radar as he heads back to the bench.
- Fontecchio will likely keep starting until Markkanen returns, and we’ll see if Yurtseven continues to start over Kessler, although that likely won’t be happening much longer. Kris Dunn is now out for personal reasons, so the other guards will handle any minutes he’d have seen.
- We’ll see if Keegan Murray is available later today, but if he remains out, look for Chris Duarte to continue to start.
NBA FanDuel & DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create up to 300 lineups in seconds based on your custom settings with our lineup optimizer tool.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- The Magic currently have the highest team total of the slate as they draw a great matchup with the Wizards. I like starting cash games with at least one of “(player-popup #paolo-banchero)Paolo Banchero” ($7,700) or Franz Wagner ($7,400) to have exposure to at least one guy under $8k with a great shot at 40+ FP. If you want Washington exposure in your main build, then Kyle Kuzma ($8,200) is the clear highest-upside and highest-floor guy to target.
- Cade Cunningham ($8,100) only went up $100 in price after averaging over 44 FPPG in his last 3 games, so he’s a top p/$ cash game guard. Jaden Ivey ($5,800) rightfully jumped up $600 in price after 2 straight 34+ FP games, but until he starts to get above $6k, I will continue to treat him as a cash game lock as a starter getting 30+ minutes with big upside.
- With Markkanen still out, I’m going back to Fontecchio ($4,200) as a top SF value for cash games. He’s seen 25+ minutes in 3 of the last 4 games and is coming off his best game of the season (27.8 FP) with just a $300 price increase. I think he’s too cheap given his 7x value upside, plus there’s a possibility of Clarkson and/or Olynyk sitting to boost his usage even more.
- Another forward that is still a bit too cheap is Batum ($4,500), as his price didn’t budge from last game after going for 33.4 FP and 31.9 FP the game before that. With Oubre and House still out, he should be safe for 28+ minutes, especially with the projected close and high-scoring game against New Orleans. At his current price, I’ll be happy with anything over 25 FP in cash games.
- Aaron Holiday ($3,900) is now a top value with VanVleet out, as he has a good chance to start and is way too cheap for someone likely to see 25+ minutes.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Banchero ($8,200), Wagner ($7,500), and Kuzma ($8,600) are still strong cash game targets, and I will be all over Cunningham ($8,500) and Ivey ($5,700) as well.
- Fontecchio ($4,600) and Batum ($4,200) are still too cheap given their starting roles, and both will be on my cash game team for value.
- Three other cheap guys standing out to me are Harrison Barnes ($5,300), Taurean Prince ($4,900), and Cam Reddish ($4,700). Unless we hear of any restrictions, I’d expect Reddish to see 30+ minutes, and he’s shown solid upside, with 4 games of 27+ FP this season. Prince has been a steady 15-25 FP guy since becoming a starter and should be on your radar if you need to fill a final spot for under $5k. Barnes has gone for 23+ FP in 5 straight games and should keep that trend going in a projected close game with the Clippers, making him a solid cash game value option.
- Aaron Holiday ($4,100) is now a top value with VanVleet out, as he has a good chance to start and is way too cheap for someone likely to see 25+ minutes.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
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Good luck today!