NBA DFS Projections Preview: November 8
We’re in store for some craziness today, as it’s a huge 14-game slate full of new injuries and big questionable statuses. The good news is that we have every teams’ injury reports since there were no games yesterday, but with so many teams in play, we’re bound to have a few surprises as the day goes on.
Let’s check out all the news and lineup notes before some DFS picks!
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RotoGrinders, as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled out, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends, on RotoGrinders.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. So knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for the upcoming slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- (Update: AD is OUT) – Anthony Davis is questionable with a left adductor/hip spasm, and if out, we’d likely see Christian Wood start at center and be a top value play. All the starters would get big usage bumps with no Davis, and guys like Hachimura and Hayes (also questionable) would get bumps in minutes.
- (Update: Beal is IN) – Bradley Beal is questionable with the back injury that’s kept him out all year, but all signs are pointing to him making his 2023 debut for Phoenix. If active, I’d be hesitant to use any Phoenix players outside of GPPs, as his presence will really hurt the usage rates of all the starters.
- (Update: Duren is IN) – Jalen Duren is questionable with bilateral ankle soreness, and if out again, we’d likely see Marvin Bagley draw another start, with Wiseman backing him up and Stewart also helping more at center.
- (Update: Herb is OUT) – Herb Jones is questionable with right leg soreness, and if out, I’d expect Larry Nance to start for him, as Matt Ryan is already projected to start for Zion. Meanwhile, Hawkins would be an even better value play then he already is, and the other starters would see usage bumps.
- (Update: Simmons is OUT) – Ben Simmons is questionable with left hip soreness, and if out I’d expect either O’Neale or Sharpe to join the starting lineup. No Simmons would also mean a higher usage rate for all of the other starters.
- (Update: Kessler is OUT) – Walker Kessler is questionable with a left elbow sprain, so we could see either Collins or Olynyk get the start at center if Kessler misses today, and all the starters would get slight usage bumps. It’s been confirmed that Agbaji and George will enter the starting lineup, with Collins moving to center and Horton-Tucker coming off the bench.
- (Update: Green is OUT) – Draymond Green is questionable for personal reasons, and if out, I’d expect Kuminga to start as the Warriors would need more size against the Denver frontcourt. All of Wiggins, Saric, and Kuminga would have to help more at PF, and the rest of the starters would see slight usage bumps if Green sits. Gary Payton is questionable with an illness, and if out we’d see more minutes for Moody and the other guards/wings.
- (Update: Dort is IN) – Lu Dort is questionable with a right hip strain. If out, I’d expect either Wallace or Wiggins to join the starting lineup, while the other starters would see slight usage bumps.
- (Update: Mann is IN) – Terance Mann is questionable to return from his left ankle sprain. If active, it would just take minutes away from Powell and Hyland and not move much as far as DFS projections go.
- (Update: Lively is OUT, Kleber is IN) – Maxi Kleber is questionable with his toe injury, and if he remains out, it would just mean more minutes for Powell and the other PF/Cs. Dereck Lively is now questionable with an illness, so Powell could be looking at very meaningful minutes if he ends up starting.
- (Update: Achiuwa is OUT) – Precious Achiuwa is questionable with the groin strain that’s kept him out a few games, and if he returns today, it would take some minutes away from Porter mostly and not have any impact on the DFS landscape.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the CourtIQ tool, where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) rates are for any player with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Notes & Analysis
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Terry Rozier is out with a groin strain, so look for Brandon Miller to start until Rozier plays again, while all the available guards will see minutes and usage bumps.
- (Update: Vassell is now AVAILABLE) – Devin Vassell is likely still out with his groin injury, so Malaki Branham should draw another start, and all the other starters get slight usage bumps.
- Devin Booker remains out with his calf strain, so Grayson Allen should continue to start for him and all the other starters keep their higher usage rates.
- Derrick White is on track to return for Boston, Rui Hachimura is back for the Lakers, and Tari Eason is back for Houston but will be eased in with around 15 minutes tonight.
- The Cavs remain without Okoro, Jerome, and Rubio, and will also be without Sam Merrill, leaving them very thin at the guards and SF spot. Look for big minutes from the starters, along with LeVert.
- Detroit will once again be without Burks, Ivey, and Harris, so Marcus Sasser will stay heavily involved off the bench, and all the starters keep their higher ceilings with little depth behind them.
- Khris Middleton will sit out the front end of tomorrow’s back-to-back, so look for Jae Crowder to start as he did last time Middleton sat, and all the starters get slight usage bumps.
- Memphis is absolutely decimated right now, as they’ll be without Xavier Tillman and Derrick Rose still, and likely Konchar as he’s doubtful. Bismack Biyombo will almost certainly start at center, and Luke Kennard should see big minutes as the top bench player.
- McCollum remains out with his lung injury, so look for Jordan Hawkins to start until we see CJ again. Zion Williamson has been ruled out for personal reasons, leaving an already thin Pelicans team looking at 11 players available at best, if Jones plays through his Q tag. Matt Ryan is the likely candidate to start for Zion, although they could go with Nance, but all the starters are looking at big minutes and big usage rates with no CJ or Zion.
- Robert Williams is out indefinitely with a knee injury, leaving Portland very thin at center. Ayton is looking a big role now, while Moses Brown is likely his top backup until they bring someone else to the team. Henderson remains out with his ankle injury, so Brogdon keeps his higher ceiling as the starter. Fox also remains out for the Kings, so Mitchell will continue to start at PG.
- Mason Plumlee is out indefinitely with a knee sprain, so Zubac is looking at more minutes, and both Tucker and Diabate will help back him up.
- Jamal Murray is out indefinitely with his hamstring injury, so Reggie Jackson should continue to start with Braun and Gillespie backing him up, and the other starters will continue to see higher usage rates.
NBA FanDuel & DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- I’m starting my cash game lineup with Jordan Hawkins ($4,300), as he should continue to start until McCollum returns, and his price only went up $100 after going for 45.9 FP in 38 minutes last game. He’s seen 24+ minutes in five straight games, and has only gone for less than 23 FP once in that stretch. With a likely 6x value floor and over 10x ceiling, he will rightfully be one of the most popular plays of the slate and is today’s cash game “free square” that will let you fit in more studs. With Zion now out, Matt Ryan ($3,900) has entered cash game consideration as a likely starter that should get you 20-25 FP today.
- A couple of more cheap guards I’m targeting in cash games are Jordan Poole ($6,700) and Austin Reaves ($6,000). Poole started the year at $7.7k, but some mediocre games has lowered his price by $1,000, and with back-to-back games of 34+ FP, along with a great matchup against Charlotte, he’s looking like a top p/$ play with a solid chance at another 34+ FP game. Reaves has also seen a big salary drop of $900 from his highest price this year, and at $6k today, he is a fantastic cash game target at the SG/SF spots. The Lakers are dealing with a bunch of injuries which has helped Reaves see a big bump in minutes over the last three games, and coming off a 47.5 FP game against Miami, he’s going to see a jump in salary after today. Take advantage of another likely strong FP game at a great price.
- At the forward spot, three guys are standing out as top p/$ plays – Jerami Grant ($6,600), Michael Porter ($6,400), and Aaron Gordon ($6,300). Grant has seen 37+ minutes in four straight games, and with Robert Williams out now, he should be pressed in to similar minutes tonight. He’s gone for 33+ FP in three of his last four, gets a nice pace up matchup with the Kings, and has easy 5-7x value in his likely range of outcomes today. Porter and Gordon have been on fire over their last three games, with both going for 36+ FP in each game. Murray getting hurt has helped their usage rates and that will continue today in a likely high scoring matchup with the Warriors. Continue to target both of them in cash games until their salaries catch up with their current production.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Jordan Hawkins ($4,700) remains a fantastic value play and will be my first cash game lock, and Matt Ryan ($4,300) is still cheap enough to consider in your main build. Austin Reaves ($5,800) is also still way too cheap given his increased minutes and usage of late, and I will definitely find a spot for him in my main build.
- Grant ($6,900), Gordon ($6,700), and Porter ($6,500) are still very affordable and strong cash game targets, while Poole ($7,400) is just a bit too pricey and isn’t as much of a cash game priority as he is on FanDuel for me.
- Someone who I prefer on DraftKings over FanDuel due to his $600 price discount is Cam Thomas ($7,000). Thomas actually dropped another $100 in salary after going for 59 FP last game, and should continue to see 37+ minutes as a starter until Johnson and/or Claxton return. I’m expecting a huge price increase on the next slate Thomas is on, so I’ll happily play him today at this low of a salary as it’s rare to find anyone at $7k with the potential for 33 shot attempts which he took last game.
- Killian Hayes ($4,900) is another guard I prefer on DraftKings, as he’s $500 cheaper than FanDuel, and only saw a $100 price increase after going for 42 FP last game. Detroit was without Burks, Harris, Ivey, and Duren last game which contributed to an increased usage for Hayes, and today Detroit will be without at least the first three guys again. He should have a 30 minute floor, and he’s gone for 25+ FP in four of his last five games. This is probably our last chance to play him for under $5k with Detroit far from fully healthy still.
- Lastly, I’d keep Luke Kennard ($4,000) on your value radar, as Memphis is down a bunch of regulars today, and Kennard has seen 27+ minutes in each of his last two games when Memphis had more guys to compete with minutes-wise. He’s by no means a must play in cash games, but if you need to fill a final spot in your lineup with someone around $4k, then he’s my favorite option, as he should have a solid 15-20 FP floor and about a 25-30 FP ceiling.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
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Good luck today!