NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 4/8/2022
We’re down to the final few days of regular season NBA DFS which means just a few more days of craziness as things will definitely become a bit easier to predict once the playoffs start and we get rid of all the tank teams and random guys resting. The Suns and Heat have the #1 seeds locked up in the West and East so I wouldn’t feel too comfortable using anyone on either team today as I doubt any starter sees big minutes. The last game of the night is an absolute treat with the Thunder and Lakers and a ton of value plays as we’re expecting the Lakers big three to continue to sit out and the Thunder will likely keep using a 7-8 man rotation. Five teams are on a back-to-back (MIL, TOR, CHA, POR, LAL) today with the Bucks potentially sitting some guys out in an easy matchup with Detroit although they still need to hold on to their 2 seed with a win. Today is truly going to be wild as some of these game spreads are looking a bit fishy (mainly MIL only -6 favorites) so make sure to keep checking all the tools mentioned in this article and be ready to make any late-swaps by ordering your lineups from top to bottom by game-lock time!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Projections Preview – Friday, April 8th
NBA Starting Lineups – Early DFS Analysis
I’m going to start with the last game on NBA Starting Lineups as it’s one of the most important of the night as far as value plays goes. At the moment we’re calling AD/LeBron/Westbrook doubtful as they have no reason to suit up any more this season especially after sitting out yesterday so look for Talen Horton-Tucker, Austin Reaves, and Stanley Johnson to start for them again. THT should be the top value play of the slate as he saw 37 minutes and scored over 55 FP last night and now gets an even easier matchup. OKC likely starts their same lineup as the last couple of games with Zavier Simpson and Georgios Kalaitzakis still very cheap especially on DK.
Washington will rest Kristaps Porzingis and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope while Beal and Kuzma remain out still so we should see Deni Avdija and Daniel Gafford join the starting five and both should be excellent plays for their prices. Satoransky, Kispert, Hachimura, and Smith all get usage bumps as well.
The Jazz are close to full strength with just Trent Forrest out today but right now they are 3 point favorites over the Suns which is looking like we won’t see many minutes from the Phoenix starters even though they should all be available. I mentioned earlier that the Bucks as only -6 favorites over Detroit is looking fishy to me and I’m expecting them to sit a few of their main guys on the b2b in an easy matchup. We’ll get their first injury report later today but don’t expect to be locking in any of their big names and instead we will probably get to use guys like Bobby Portis, Jordan Nwora, and Pat Connaughton today. The Heat are in a similar situation as well with nothing to play for and as only 2 point favorites over the Hawks today and six guys currently questionable I think we could see a bunch of guys get ruled out for them.
A big name on track to return today is Evan Mobley in a pretty important game against Brooklyn as they, the Hawks, and the Hornets are all still jockeying for the 7-10 seeds. James Johnson was waived by the Nets yesterday and Goran Dragic remains out in health & safety protocols while Lou Williams could return for Atlanta from his one-game absence and Gordon Hayward is likely still out for Charlotte.
Mitchell Robinson will miss another game for the Knicks so look for Jericho Sims to start and he should be a top value play especially for $3,700 on DK coming off a 38 FP game in 35 minutes. OG Anunoby will also miss another game so Birch likely joins the starting lineup while Fred VanVleet will be back after resting the front end of the b2b yesterday. Detroit should get back Kelly Olynyk and Rodney McGruder and possibly Cory Joseph while Bagley, Grant, and Diallo remain out and for now we’re assuming Killian Hayes keeps starting regardless if Joseph is active.
Fred VanVleet will be out again for Toronto so look Pascal Siakam, Scottie Barnes, and Gary Trent to carry most of the offense.
Some other minor news of note today include Kris Dunn out so Brandon Williams likely starts, Marquese Chriss out today with an illness along with Kleber and Alex Caruso with a chance to return for Chicago.
Key Injuries – The Situation Room Review
It’s pretty calm right now in The Situation Room as Evan Mobley is likely available even though he’s listed Q for now and the Lakers big 3 should be out even though they’re listed D for now.
UPDATE: AD/James/Westbrook/Melo are OUT
I expected more Bucks news but only Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as Q but I still don’t think the starters get big minutes if active but if Giannis gets ruled out then I will like Portis, Nwora, and Connaughton a bit more.
If Maxi Kleber ends up on the wrong side of his questionable tag we would see Davis Bertans get most of his minutes with Chriss already out while Patrick Williams would likely start again if Caruso can’t play through his back contusion. The Heat have 6 guys questionable and I’m expecting them to sit or limit a good amount of guys today with nothing to play for so keep an eye on their starting lineup and news about minutes for certain guys. Bogdan Bogdanovic is questionable now and if out Huerter and Wright would absorb most of his minutes.
Make sure to follow the RG NBA Twitter feed for all news related to injuries and lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for any big news updates on players with instant analysis on how it affects their teams and the slate.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected starting lineups as well as key injuries let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I will be immediately locking in Talen Horton-Tucker for $4,000 as he is way too cheap for his expected role today along with Malik Monk for $5,400. Stanley Johnson should see 30+ minutes and should be a fine option at $3,500 but might not be necessary with the better value out there today. With KCP and Porzingis out I’m loving Deni Avdija for $5,000 as he should easily see 33+ minutes along with Daniel Gafford ($4,300) who will likely start and hopefully see around 30 minutes. Zavier Simpson is looking solid at $4,700 getting huge minutes while Caris LeVert is still too cheap at $5,600 and will almost certainly make my main build (revenge game!). Some other guys with solid prices I’m considering include Jericho Sims ($4,800), Gary Trent ($5,300), Saddiq Bey ($5,200), Rui Hachimura ($4,500), and Greg Brown ($4,600).
DraftKings has a lot of similar locks as FD with Horton-Tucker way too cheap at $3,800 and Malik Monk sitting pretty at $5,600. Zavier Simpson is $800 cheaper than FD and much preferred for me on DK at $3,900. Jericho Sims is another guy I prefer much more on DK at only $3,700 and I like pairing him with Daniel Gafford at $3,900 for max center value. Avdija is a great price at $5,400 and at a similar price of $5,600 I like Jaylen Hoard on DK for the slight price discount to FD. Other strong p/$ DK plays include Stanley Johnson ($3,700), Austin Reaves ($4,000), Vit Krejci ($4,400), and Georgios Kalaitzakis ($3,600).
Keep checking LineupHQ as we learn more news and our minutes and projections change throughout the day as well as the ChangeLog which shows which projections were recently updated. The best p/$ plays could change in an instant if there’s a big injury that comes out of the blue, a questionable player gets ruled out, or we get a quote from a coach saying someone won’t see as many minutes or will see a lot more minutes than we were expecting earlier in the day as a few examples of many that can drastically change a slate.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch NBA Crunch Time and follow the CourtIQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn