NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Optimizer Picks For 3/21/2022
We have a nice sized nine-game slate today with all games tipping off between 7PM and 8:30PM EST. Of the 18 teams playing today, 8 of them are on a back-to-back, so we’re going to have to see what these injury reports look like as the day goes on but we should have most of them before lock as no b2b team tips off after 8PM. I will be editing this article as we get updated injury reports, so make sure to check back here and with all of RG’s tools throughout the day for updated news and analysis.
This article is meant to highlight some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA Starting Lineups – Early DFS Analysis
Starting with the 7PM games on NBA Starting Lineups, we have Jerami Grant out today which should give Marvin Bagley the start at PF while Killian Hayes is on track to return after missing last game. The Lakers and Cavs don’t have any changes at the moment other than Wayne Ellington returning (THT has since been ruled out). New Orleans will get back Devonte Graham, who missed last game while the Hornets will have the usual group today. Josh Hart was just ruled out for Portland while Justise Winslow will be available but no Hart leaves a lot of usage for all the starters and Kris Dunn is even more appealing off the bench now.
The 76ers will sit Joel Embiid on the b2b along with James Harden so Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris will have to carry most of the offense while the Heat will be without Victor Oladipo and Gabe Vincent but Jimmy Butler will return after missing last game. Bojan Bogdanovic and Danuel House will remain out for the Jazz giving Juancho Hernangomez another likely start, while Mike Conley will be back after resting yesterday on the front end of the b2b. Kyrie Irving will sit as the Nets are at home, so look for Goran Dragic to keep starting and see big minutes.
In the last group of games Marcus Smart and Robert Williams are out so look for Derrick White to start at PG and be a solid value play while Al Horford should slide to C with Grant Williams likely starting at PF and their opponents the Thunder will get back Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who sat out yesterday. Kyle Kuzma is out so look for Rui Hachimura to start and Eric Gordon will return for Houston. Fred VanVleet will be back after sitting the front of the b2b yesterday but Gary Trent will sit tonight making FVV, Barnes, and Siakam all great plays while the Bulls will get some help at forward with Patrick Williams available off the bench on a minutes limit. Jaden McDaniels and Tim Hardaway remain out in the final game of the night while Reggie Bullock should return from his personal issue.
Andre Drummond is now out so look for Nicolas Claxton to get most of the center minutes and be a very strong value play.
NBA DFS Key Injuries – The Situation Room Review
The Lakers are playing, so LeBron James is questionable in The Situation Room so look for Dwight Howard to potentially start at C if he is out and Russell Westbrook is priced up finally on FanDuel at $8,100 but would be in play for me there. Monk, Anthony, Reaves, and Johnsonwould all get big usage bumps and the order listed is how I’d prioritize using them. Update – LeBron is IN, THT is OUT
Like yesterday the status of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be crucial to the slate as Tre Mann would likely start and is still too cheap for his elevated role with no SGA and the same can be said for Aleksej Pokusevski especially on DraftKings. The CourtIQ if SGA sits shows Tre Mann with an 8% usage bump and Pokusevski with a 5.6% usage bump and both would be my favorite Thunder if no SGA today. Update – SGA is IN. Olivier Sarr is now OUT
Karl-Anthony Towns is questionable with a forearm contusion and we may be looking at a late-swap to Naz Reid if we don’t learn KAT’s status before lock. Reid would almost certainly start if KAT sits and is way too cheap for the likely 28+ minutes he’d see, and I would immediately lock in DAngelo Russell on FanDuel at $6,400 which is his lowest price of the season. Anthony Edwards would also be a very strong play with his 29.2% usage rate and 1.20 FPPM with Towns and McDaniels off the floor.
Kyle Kuzma is officially questionable but Coach Unseld said he should be fine for today but if for some reason he ends up out look for Rui Hachimura to start and be a solid value play. Update – Kuzma is OUT
Look for Naji Marshall to start if Devonte Graham misses another game and CJ McCollum to be a top play especially at just $8,400 on FanDuel. Cory Joseph and Kelly Olynyk are both questionable so look for Killian Hayes to start if Joseph sits and he’d be one of my favorite value plays while Pickett and Garza would be the available bench big men if Olynyk sat. Update – Graham is IN, Joseph is OUT, Olynyk is OUT
Goran Dragic is now questionable and with Irving already out it would leave Patty Mills as the top PG if Dragic sits and he’d be a great value play. Update – Dragic is IN
Make sure to follow the RG NBA Twitter feed for all news related to injuries and lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for any big news updates on players with instant analysis on how it affects their teams and the slate.
NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks – LineupHQ
With a good feel for the projected starting lineups as well as key injuries let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel Cade Cunningham is looking like an excellent play at $7,500 as his last three games played have all been for over 40 FP and I’m expecting that to be his floor in an excellent matchup with Portland and the potential for Cory Joseph to sit giving Cunningham even more ball-handling duties. Saddiq Bey price shot up to $7,000 but he is still squarely in play with Jerami Grant out and potentially Olynyk too and Marvin Bagley is looking solid at $5,600 as well. With Marcus Smart and Robert Williams out the Celtics have some nice value in Derrick White ($4,600), Grant Williams ($3,700) and Al Horford ($5,400) and I will likely have at least two of them in my cash build. Jaylen Brown is also a bit too cheap at $7,200 but there is some blowout risk and the potential for lower minutes on the b2b but I think you have to consider him at that price. With Josh Hart out I’m loving the price of Justise Winslow at $5,300 as he will have to carry a lot of the offense tonight along with Trendon Watford at $6,200. With Embiid and Harden both out I’m looking at Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris as great value plays with both under $5,600 and both getting huge usage bumps. Some other guys whose prices I’m liking include Nikola Vucevic, Donovan Mitchell, Fred VanVleet, Isaiah Roby, Royce ONeale, CJ Elleby, and Jarred Vanderbilt.
Switching to DraftKings I’m liking the value from BOS and OKC with Derrick White, Grant Williams, Al Horford, and Aleksej Pokusevski all looking like very strong p/$ plays. Kris Dunn is also standing out as a strong p/$ option at just $3,800 as he’s seen 23+ minutes in three straight games off the bench scoring over 24 FP in each of those games and with Josh Hart out he could push closer to 30 minutes. Also at $3,800 Killian Hayes is in strong consideration for me even if Cory Joseph plays but if Joseph sits Hayes will be one of the first guys I lock in. After resting yesterday Mike Conley should be very active today with his teammates on a b2b and is a solid play at $5,600 and as mentioned previous Royce ONeale is a fine value option at $4,300. Some other DK guys I like include Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Justise Winslow, CJ Elleby, Juancho Hernangomez, Isaiah Roby, Nicolas Claxton, Chris Boucher, and Austin Reaves.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we learn more news and our minutes and projections change throughout the day as well as the ChangeLog which shows which projections were recently updated. The best p/$ plays could change in an instant if there’s a big injury that comes out of the blue, a questionable player gets ruled out, or we get a quote from a coach saying someone won’t see as many minutes or will see a lot more minutes than we were expecting earlier in the day as a few examples of many that can drastically change a slate.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch NBA Crunch Time and follow the CourtIQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn