NBA DFS Projections Preview | Optimizer Picks, Lineup Changes, Key Injuries For Wednesday
I know that it’s because of the NCAA tournament starting Thursday but having 12 games today and 1 game tomorrow feels like cruel and unusual punishment by the NBA on DFS players. Give us none or give us at least three but one? Torture. Hopefully we can get our NBA DFS fill for two days worth today as it’s going to be a very busy slate with 24 teams playing and around 75 players in The Situation Room currently. Of the 24 teams only two are on a back-to-back (BKN and PHO) so we at least have almost all of the updated injury reports. Don’t forget to order your lineups from top to bottom by earliest start time for maximum flexibility if you need to make swaps and don’t forget to fill out your March Madness bracket along with wishing Joel Embiid a happy birthday on twitter!
This article is meant to highlight some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA Starting Lineups – Early DFS Analysis
Besides Kyrie Irving being out for the Nets, NBA Starting Lineups is actually pretty stable so far with just a lot of minor things to mention but who are we kidding this page is going to be changing faster than my bracket will be busted so make sure to keep checking it throughout the day along with all of the tools mentioned in this article as what we know now will guaranteed be different by midday, lock time, and even after lock.
I’m going to go game-by-game by start time as there isn’t really a must-start team to mention — In the 7PM games Atlanta will remain without John Collins but should get back Danilo Gallinari from his one-game absence and will likely start at PF today. The Hornets will remain without Gordon Hayward but get a little guard reinforcement back in James Bouknight while the Sixers will have the same group available as last game (if Embiid plays). Dean Wade, Rajon Rondo, and Jarrett Allen remain out for Cleveland so Lamar Stevens could draw another start but doesn’t offer much upside. Denver is hoping to get Aaron Gordon back from his one-game absence while the Wizards remain without Beal but have the same group as last game.
The two games in the 7:30PM window include the still-depleted Trail Blazers who are missing the usual group except Justise Winslow who has his first chance to return today. The Knicks are standing pat on injuries and will have the same group as last game while the Mavericks will remain without Reggie Bullock which should give Spencer Dinwiddie another start. As mentioned earlier the biggest name missing on the slate is Kyrie Irving who could probably use a breather after dropping 60 points yesterday while Seth Curry and Cam Thomas will try to return from their ankle and back injuries. Look for Goran Dragic to start at PG and Patty Mills to fill-in for Curry at SG if he can’t go.
The Suns and Lakers look to have the same group as their last games outside of Dwight Howard likely returning from his personal issue but he’s not relevant today while the status of LeBron James will hopefully be known before lock which could make Howard relevant. Houston will get back Dennis Schroder and potentially Eric Gordon although Coach Silas was “a bit worried” about his status so look for Garrison Mathews to start if Gordon can’t go. Minnesota actually has some pretty big news with Jaden McDaniels out indefinitely but Jarred Vanderbilt could return and help fill the PF spot with Taurean Prince. McLaughlin and Reid also have a chance of returning from their one-game absence.
The next window of games has the still-depleted Thunder who will get back a little help with Aaron Wiggins while Olivier Sarr started over Roby last game and will likely do so again. Outside of Lonzo Ball and Patrick Williams being out the Bulls should be at full strength while the Spurs will be without McDermott, Bates-Diop, and Langford which should keep Josh Richardson with the starters. The Jazz are going to be without both Bojan Bogdanovic and Danuel House so look for Eric Paschall or Rudy Gay to start at SF while Trent Forrest will also be out.
Lastly the 10PM and later games don’t have anything crazy at the moment with the Bucks and Celtics having the same group as last game while the Kings will get back Justin Holiday but remain without Jeremy Lamb. The Warriors remain without Iguodala and Payton but are hoping Andrew Wiggins is over his illness that cost him a game and we could see Green start after coming off the bench last game, while the last game of the night has the Raptors and Clippers looking to get back their PG’s with Reggie Jackson definitely returning but Fred VanVleet status is still up in ther air. Also in that game Marcus Morris will be back from his rest game along with Robert Covington from his personal issue while OG Anunoby and Malachi Flynn remain out for Toronto.
NBA DFS Key Injuries – The Situation Room Review
There are a ton of names listed in The Situation Room but only about ten relevant questionable tags currently. Yes I’m including LeBron as relevant even though he should almost certainly play as he’s not on a b2b and doesn’t play again until Friday but if he does end up out look for THT or Howard to start at C and Westbrook, Anthony, Monk, and Reaves to carry the offense and be solid plays.
The biggest questionable tag currently is by far Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who is dealing with right ankle soreness and would open up a ton of usage for the remaining nine available Thunder players. Running a CourtIQ with SGA and all the other Thunder players off the floor we see how big SGA out would be as Tre Mann sees a +10.6% usage increase taking him to a team high 33.4% while Aaron Wiggins, Aleksej Pokusevski and Theo Maledon all see nice usage bumps as well. If SGA ends up out I will have Tre Mann on every site and at least two or three other OKC guys depending on positional needs but almost certainly Darius Bazley will make it in as he’s just too cheap for his upside with no SGA.
Joel Embiid was added as questionable around 12:30PM EST and if out we’d likely see DeAndre Jordan start at C with Millsap and/or Reed helping there as well. James Harden would get a nice usage bump and would have a much higher ceiling while Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris would be more appealing plays too.
Next is Fred VanVleet who is once again uncertain with his right knee soreness and if out would make Scottie Barnes and Pascal Siakam top targets who both seem to have 45+ FP floors any time VanVleet sits. Precious Achiuwa will also be more appealing and should be in play on DraftKings at $3,900 regardless of VanVleet’s status while Gary Trent has shown huge upside and would be much more appealing with no FVV. Gary Trent is now questionable with a non-covid illness so Barnes and Siakam are looking like the safest Raptors by far and have huge upside if VanVleet and Trent both sit.
Also in the late games is Andrew Wiggins dealing with an illness but his status doesn’t have too much of an effect on this slate especially with Draymond Green back in the mix and Jordan Poole priced up but his absence would give slight usage bumps to the other starters in a tough matchup with Boston.
The Timberwolves are a pretty big team to monitor today as they have four guys questionable and Jaden McDaniels is already ruled out. If Jarred Vanderbilt ends up out it’s looking like Taurean Prince will have to start at PF and should be a solid value play while Malik Beasley will only be in play for me if Patrick Beverley and Jordan McLaughlin both end up out. Naz Reid missing another game would give a boost to Towns who erupted last game as only Nathan Knight would be left at C.
Aaron Gordon and Eric Gordon are both Q but won’t have much impact on his slate as Denver and Houston have plenty of guys available to absorb their minutes while Seth Curry Q tag is a bit more noteworthy with Irving out as Dragic and Mills would be much more appealing value plays if Curry sits.
Make sure to follow the RG NBA Twitter feed for all news related to injuries and lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for any big news updates on players with instant analysis on how it affects their teams and the slate.
NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks – LineupHQ
With a good feel for the projected starting lineups as well as key injuries let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
I’m starting to wonder why FanDuel refuses to make Brandon Williams at least $5,500 as he’s averaging around 35 minutes and 30 FP over his last four games which makes his $5,200 price today just too cheap to fade so he will be one of the first guys I plug in to my main build. They did finally bump Drew Eubanks up to $5,100 and Trendon Watford up to $6,700 but both have shown big upside and could still pay off those prices. I definitely prefer Eubanks for the price if you are looking for a 2nd Trail Blazer to use with Williams as Justise Winslow potentially returning could put a slight cap on the upside of guys like Elleby, Hart, and Watford and speaking of Hart I think he’s too expensive at $7,400. After Williams my next favorite play is Olivier Sarr who started over Roby last game and saw 32 minutes scoring almost 22 FP. For $3,500 and 30+ minutes and the potential for SGA to sit or be limited I think Sarr’s range of outcomes today is just too good to pass up for that price. You are sacrificing the one center you can use on FD having to forego Embiid, Jokic, Towns and other huge upside names but until we get some other min-price options likely to see over 30 minutes I’m going with Sarr. Tre Mann and Spencer Dinwiddie are also looking great at $5,000 and $5,500 respectively and I will likely go with one of them alongside Brandon Williams at PG. Some other FanDuel names I’m considering include Alec Burks, RJ Barrett, Amir Coffey, Darius Bazley, Devin Vassell, and Jaylen Brown.
DraftKings has priced the Portland guys too high for me today but I will be sticking with the cheap C theme there today with Olivier Sarr at $3,500 and Precious Achiuwa at $3,900. Both guys should see at least 27 minutes and we’re hoping to get 20+ FP out of Sarr while Achiuwa just showed 35+ FP upside last game. Starting with those two on DK leaves you with over $7,000 in average salary per position remaining which should let you make a pretty stacked team today especially if you include a Danilo Gallinari, Tre Mann, or Darius Bazley who I think are all too cheap on DK. Some other value names I’m looking at on DK include Mike Conley, Lauri Markkanen, Devin Vassell, Taurean Prince (more so if Vanderbilt sits), Monte Morris, Royce ONeale, and Aaron Wiggins.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we learn more news and our minutes and projections change throughout the day as well as the ChangeLog which shows which projections were recently updated. The best p/$ plays could change in an instant if there’s a big injury that comes out of the blue, a questionable player gets ruled out, or we get a quote from a coach saying someone won’t see as many minutes or will see a lot more minutes than we were expecting earlier in the day as a few examples of many that can drastically change a slate.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch NBA Crunch Time and follow the CourtIQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn