NBA DFS | Today's Best Projections, Optimizer Picks, Starting Lineups, Key Injuries
Today we have twice as many games as yesterday with a monster 12-game slate and 7 of the 24 teams are on a back-to-back. We already have a bunch of big names with questionable tags and plenty more to come as the teams on the b2b release their injury reports throughout the day. On slates this big it is crucial to be monitoring and re-checking all the tools mentioned in this article as the info we know now will almost certainly not be the info we are working with in a few hours or even right up to lock and then a lot will change after lock as 10 of the 12 games are at 7:30PM EST or later. Make sure you are ordering players in your lineups from earliest lock time at the top to latest lock time at the bottom on sites with more flexible positions so any surprise news after lock gives you the greatest maneuverability. With all that said we can still start making teams with what we know now and then adapt as the day goes on as we learn more.
This article is meant to highlight some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA Starting Lineups – Early DFS Analysis
There are going to be a lot of moving pieces on NBA Starting Lineups throughout the day but right now there are still a good amount of changes to talk about. The biggest name standing out to me is the return of Devin Booker who will be available in Miami tonight. His presence will really damper the upside of guys like Cameron Payne and Deandre Ayton while Booker himself is probably too expensive to use his first game back with a tough matchup in Miami. Paul and Johnson remain out.
Domantas Sabonis was just suspended for tonight’s game which will open some nice value with the Kings as they are also without Richaun Holmes still. Look for Damian Jones to start at C and be a top value play while Trey Lyles should also be a solid value play around $4,000 on both sites. De’Aaron Fox gets a nice ceiling bump and will have to carry most of the offense tonight along with Harrison Barnes.
In the first game of the night between the Bulls and Pistons the former is hoping to get their center Nikola Vucevic back while the latter will be without theirs. With Isaiah Stewart out with a bone bruise in his knee Marvin Bagley should start at C and will be a popular play coming off a 40 FP game in 36 minutes at a nice price tonight while Hamidou Diallo should be back and available off the bench.
Another couple of teams hoping to get some stars back are the Lakers and Rockets with both James and Wood missing their last games. Hopefully we learn their status before lock as Russell Westbrook is way too cheap on FD at $6,800 while Alperen Sengun is very cheap on both sites. For the Rockets look for Eric Gordon to be back with the starters and Schroder to be potentially available off the bench.
The Timberwolves have a good chance to get back two of their stars tonight with reports of D’Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards “trending towards playing” and if both do end up available it’ll be hard to trust anyone on Minnesota to have a ceiling game especially with a good chance of a blowout vs. OKC who is on a b2b. Around 2:30PM EST we learned that Tre Mann will be out tonight leaving the Thunder with 9 players available. Theo Maledon should see a decent minutes boost and at almost minimum price on both FD and DK could be a solid value play while Aleksej Pokusevski could start and likely see 30+ minutes as a very strong mid-range play. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will have to carry even more of the offense as well and remains one of the highest-ceiling players of the slate.
Fred VanVleet was a full participant in practice yesterday and said he’ll return tonight against the Spurs and he does have a pretty appealing $7,300 price on FD if we hear he will have no restrictions. In that same game the Spurs will get back Devin Vassell and Lonnie Walker who both missed their last game while Bates-Diop will sit again and Langford has already been ruled out.
The Hawks and Bucks should get back their starting SGs as Kevin Huerter is probable and Grayson Allen will be back after sitting the front end of the b2b while the Magic are hoping to get back their SG too with Suggs having another chance to return after missing their last few games while Fultz will sit for rest on the b2b. The Magic’s opponent will be missing Brandon Ingram again making C.J. McCollum a top target in DFS. Sticking with the SG theme the Mavericks will get Jalen Brunson back who missed last game with a right foot contusion while the Nuggets are hoping Will Barton can return after missing last game with a sprained ankle and Rivers likely starting if he sits again.
In the last couple games of the night the Trail Blazers’ Anfernee Simons will remain out so look for Brandon Williams to start and is a smash value play for me on FanDuel where he’s minimum price at $3,500 ($5.5k on DK). Lastly Robert Covington will remain out for the Clippers for personal reasons leaving Amir Coffey as a decent value play once again.
NBA DFS Key Injuries – The Situation Room Review
After a slower news day yesterday we are right back with absolute chaos in The Situation Room as we have a ton of questionable guys currently and will likely see more with the updated injury reports from the seven back-to-back teams.
The biggest questionable tag is again LeBron James who actually missed last game after playing through almost every Q tag before that one. The Lakers have an excellent matchup against Houston tonight so hopefully we learn James’ status before lock as Russell Westbrook would be a top play on FanDuel (much more expensive on DraftKings but still a solid play) while Carmelo Anthony, Talen Horton-Tucker, Malik Monk and even Austin Reaves will all be in play for solid mid-range and value options if James ends up out again.
Jimmy Butler has been added to the injury report (11:30AM EST) as questionable with sinus congestion. Usually this would be much bigger news but looking at the Heat players’ prices, the tough matchup with the Suns, and the fact that Kyle Lowry and Victor Oladipo are back in the mix I don’t think I will be thrilled with any member of the Heat if Butler gets ruled out. Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro would be the highest-upside plays and fine for tournaments and you could make a case for Oladipo on FanDuel at just $4,100 but overall Butler in or out won’t change much for me with better options in better matchups.
Nikola Vucevic returning would limit the ceilings of Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan and make Tristan Thompson much less appealing but if Vucevic sits look for DeRozan and LaVine to be top plays with big usage bumps while Thompson would be a pretty strong value play. Christian Wood would be a solid play at home against the Lakers if he returns from his one game absence but if he remains out look for Alperen Sengun to draw the start and be a top value play on both sites. Jae’Sean Tate is also questionable for Houston and his absence would make KJ Martin a much more appealing value play.
Next we have a couple of guys who have both been out over a week but look to be on track to return today in Fred VanVleet and Anthony Edwards. As mentioned earlier VanVleet is in play on FanDuel for me at just $7,300 while the other Raptors’ prices have crept up over VanVleet’s absence and I’d probably look elsewhere. Anthony Edwards on track to return (along with D’Angelo Russell after his one game absence) would make me hesitant to use any Timberwolves player as it will be hard for any one guy to go off with their three stars available and a likely easy win against OKC. If Russell or Edwards happen to remain out then I’d be more inclined to play Towns and Beasley. Patrick Beverley, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Taurean Prince are all questionable for this game as well so it’ll be very important to see who ends up in or out as there is potential for a lot of guys to sit for Minnesota and make them a top team to target in a nice matchup.
Mitchell Robinson is another interesting player with a questionable tag as we saw what happened last game when he only played two minutes before exiting and Julius Randle went off for 70 FP and Taj Gibson scored over 20 FP in around 26 minutes. If Robinson ends up out today I’ll definitely consider Gibson as a value play as he’d likely start while Julius Randle would have to be in consideration as a top play especially at FanDuel where he’s only $8,600 ($1,500 cheaper than DK).
Lastly we have a couple questionable shooting guards in Jalen Suggs and Will Barton. Suggs remaining out would likely give R.J. Hampton another start and with his price going even lower on both DK and FD he’d be a solid value play. If Barton remains out then Austin Rivers should start again and he would have to be in consideration as a top value play coming off a 30 FP game in 35 minutes as a starter and potentially even less SG competition today as Bones Hyland is questionable along with Barton.
Make sure to follow the RG NBA Twitter feed for all news related to injuries and lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for any big news updates on players with instant analysis on how it affects their teams and the slate.
NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks – LineupHQ
With a good feel for the projected starting lineups as well as key injuries let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
Starting with FanDuel we see a few Trail Blazers popping with very strong p/$ projections in Drew Eubanks, Trendon Watford, and Brandon Williams. Simons has been ruled out so Brandon Williams is my top value play on FD at minimum price. Between the big men I prefer Watford over Eubanks just based on Watford getting more minutes than Eubanks over the last few games as well as Watford showing a higher upside with a couple games over 30 FP in his last three with Eubanks never eclipsing 30 over that stretch. One big name that is jumping out and looking like a must-play is Kristaps Porzingis at just $6,000. Last game he was limited to only 21 minutes but still put almost 40 FP so for that type of upside and likely 25+ minutes tonight he is just too cheap to fade for me on FD. With Ingram now ruled out I’m loving C.J. McCollum and Jonas Valanciunas who are both cheaper than they were yesterday and Valanciunas should be much lower owned after a terrible last game. As mentioned earlier if we learn that James or Robinson are out then I will be all over Russell Westbrook ($6,800) and Julius Randle ($8,600). The same goes for Will Barton or Jalen Suggs sitting as R.J. Hampton ($3,500) and Austin Rivers ($3,900) would be way too cheap for their expanded roles as starters. Having learned that Sabonis is suspended for tonight Damian Jones and Trey Lyles will get most of the PF/C minutes and are very strong value plays while Fox and Barnes have nice prices on FanDuel as well. Some other cheap and mid-range guys I’m considering include Marvin Bagley, Alec Burks, Isaiah Hartenstein, Nicolas Batum, Bojan Bogdanovic, Bobby Portis, and Eric Gordon.
Moving over to DraftKings it’s looking like a much different type of build today as we have some extreme price differences compared to FD. The Portland guys I liked on FanDuel are a bit too expensive for me on DK but I dont hate Brandon Williams at $5,500. Kristaps Porzingis is also much more expensive on DK at $7,600 and won’t be on my radar there today. I will still consider Westbrook and Randle on DK if James or Robinson sit even though they are more expensive than FD. Hampton and Rivers are similar to FD and both basically minimum price on DK so they will most likely be in my lineup if Suggs or Barton sit. One name that I much prefer on DraftKings to FanDuel is Marvin Bagley who should draw the start with Stewart out. Bagley is $700 cheaper on DK at just $5,000 and will be one of the first guys I lock in there. I also love McCollum and Valanciunas on DK too even though they are slightly more expensive than FD. With Sabonis suspended tonight Damian Jones and Trey Lyles are squarely in play for value on DK as well while Fox and Barnes will carry most of the offense and have higher ceilings. Other cheap DK plays I’m strongly considering include Amir Coffey, Jordan Clarkson, Carmelo Anthony, Austin Reaves, and Justin Holiday.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we learn more news and our minutes and projections change throughout the day as well as the ChangeLog which shows which projections were recently updated. The best p/$ plays could change in an instant if there’s a big injury that comes out of the blue, a questionable player gets ruled out, or we get a quote from a coach saying someone won’t see as many minutes or will see a lot more minutes than we were expecting earlier in the day as a few examples of many that can drastically change a slate.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch NBA Crunch Time and follow the CourtIQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
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