NBA Grind Down: Friday, April 1st - Page Two
Toronto Raptors at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Toronto -5, 198 Over/Under
- Toronto Raptors Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Powell-Scola-Valanciunas
- Memphis Grizzlies Proj. Starters – Farmar-Allen-Barnes-Randolph-Andersen
| Toronto Raptors | Memphis Grizzlies | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 198.0 | | Vegas Total | 198.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.5 | Team Proj. | 96.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.50 | Team Pace | 95.60 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | Norman Powell | Luis Scola | Jonas Valanciunas | Proj. Starter | Jordan Farmar | Tony Allen | Matt Barnes | Zach Randolph | Chris Andersen | |
| Opp. Season | 10 | 5 | 14 | 15 | 5 | Opp. Season | 3 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 8 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 19 | 14 | 11 | 30 | 20 | Last 3 Weeks | 7 | 19 | 24 | 7 | 1 | |
Toronto Raptors
Record: 50-24 — Road: 21-15 — Last 10: 6-4
- Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.9 (13 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 101.5 (15 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -1.4 (15 of 20)
The Raptors have won six of their last ten games, but are still two and a half games behind the Cavaliers for the top seed in the East. Tonight they head to Memphis to take on the slow-paced Grizzlies. The Raptors are only projected to score 101.5 points, which gives them the sixth lowest team total and projected point differential.
- Memphis Grizzlies Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.8 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.6 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.7 (22 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 194.7 (6 of 30)
The Grizzlies appear to have an above-average defense, but their numbers are a lot less appealing over the last three weeks of play. During that stretch, they are ranked 19th or worse in fantasy points allowed to points guards, power forwards, and centers. If the Raptors decide not to rest anyone tonight, I will likely be avoiding their players altogether. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are tournament plays at best tonight, unless one of them sits out.
- Injury Watch:
DeMarre Carroll (Out)
Luis Scola (Questionable)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
| Jonas Valanciunas | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$6,000 | Salary:$5,300 | ||||
| Position:C | Position:C | ||||
| FP/Min:1.03 | FP/Min:1.09 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 26.0 | 24.0 | -2.0 | 26.9 | 0.9 |
| FPPG (FD) | 26.7 | 27.6 | 0.8 | 30.6 | 3.9 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 16.9 | 19.3 | 2.4 | 19.5 | 2.6 |
Valanciunas is producing at a high level, averaging 30.6 fantasy points over his last five games. This does feel a bit like fools gold though, as we know what to expect from him. He will have big outings every now and then, but has a hard time sustaining it over a long period of time. I do like the matchup against the Grizzlies’ weakened frontcourt though. Fire up big Val in a GPP lineup tonight.
Memphis Grizzlies
Record: 41-34 — Home: 25-13 — Last 10: 2-8
- Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 99.1 (24 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 96.5 (18 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -2.6 (17 of 20)
The Grizzlies have lost eight of their last ten games and are in danger of dropping down in the standings. They currently hold a game and a half lead over the Blazers for the fifth seed in the East. The Grizzlies are only projected to score 96.5 points, which gives them the third lowest team total and the fourth lowest projected point differential.
- Toronto Raptors Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.8 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.6 (7 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 190.2 (5 of 30)
The Raptors are one of a handful of teams that I generally try to avoid targeting players against. On the season, they are ranked seventh or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Zach Randolph, Matt Barnes, and Jordan Farmar are all intriguing tournament targets, but there are better plays at each of their respective positions.
- Injury Watch:
Mike Conley (Out)
Brandan Wright (Out)
P.J. Hairston (Out)
Jordan Adams (Out)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
NONE
Minnesota Timberwolves at Utah Jazz – 9:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Utah -9, 195 Over/Under
- Minnesota Timberwolves Proj. Starters – Rubio-LaVine-Wiggins-Dieng-Towns
- Utah Jazz Proj. Starters – Mack-Hood-Hayward-Favors-Gobert
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Utah Jazz | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 195.0 | | Vegas Total | 195.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.0 | Vegas Sprd | -9.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.0 | Team Proj. | 102.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.60 | Team Pace | 93.50 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Ricky Rubio | Zach LaVine | Andrew Wiggins | Gorgui Dieng | Karl-Anthony Towns | Proj. Starter | Shelvin Mack | Rodney Hood | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Rudy Gobert | |
| Opp. Season | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | Opp. Season | 25 | 22 | 18 | 10 | 7 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | Last 3 Weeks | 28 | 16 | 6 | 21 | 10 | |
Minnesota Timberwolves
Record: 25-50 — Road: 12-25 — Last 10: 5-5
- Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.0 (18 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 93.0 (20 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -9.0 (20 of 20)
The Wolves have been playing some solid basketball recently, winning five of their last ten games. They draw an awful matchup tonight against the Jazz in Utah. The Wolves are only projected to score 93 points, which gives them the lowest team total and the lowest projected point differential on the board tonight.
- Utah Jazz Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.2 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.7 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 3.5 (5 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 185.1 (2 of 30)
The Jazz keep getting better defensively. They are now ranked second in both points allowed per game and fantasy points allowed per game. They also play at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA. Karl-Anthony Towns has been one of my favorite fantasy options over the last few weeks, but I will be avoiding all of the Wolves’ players tonight.
- Injury Watch:
Andrew Wiggins (Probable)
Kevin Garnett (Out)
Nikola Pekovic (Out)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
NONE
Utah Jazz
Record: 37-38 — Home: 23-14 — Last 10: 7-3
- Utah Jazz Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 97.8 (28 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 102.0 (14 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 4.2 (6 of 20)
The Jazz have won seven of their last ten games and currently hold a half game lead over the Rockets for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Jazz could, and maybe should, have beat the Warriors the other night at home. They will look to bounce back tonight against the Wolves. Utah is listed as a 9-point favorite with the sixth highest projected point differential on the board.
- Minnesota Timberwolves Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.9 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.2 (14 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 202.2 (19 of 30)
The Wolves have been an exploitable matchup all season. They are ranked 24th in points allowed per game and 27th in defensive efficiency. The main situation to monitor here is the status of Derrick Favors. He injured his knee against the Warriors on Wednesday and was eventually forced out of the game. If he is unable to play, Trey Lyles, Trevor Booker, and Rudy Gobert would all see a boost in his absence. Alec Burks was hoping to play tonight, but he will have to wait at least one more game before making his return to the lineup.
- Injury Watch:
Derrick Favors (Questionable)
Alec Burks (Out)
Elite Plays
| Gordon Hayward | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$6,900 | Salary:$7,000 | ||||
| Position:SF | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.87 | FP/Min:0.94 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 36.1 | 35.3 | -0.8 | 33.9 | -2.2 |
| FPPG (FD) | 31.4 | 29.4 | -2.0 | 30.0 | -1.4 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 21.8 | 20.1 | -1.7 | 20.1 | -1.8 |
Hayward is a borderline elite play regardless, but an elite elite play if Derrick Favors is out. With Favors off of the floor this season, Hayward has a usage rate of 32, while averaging 1.08 FP/min. Those numbers should leap off the page at you. With the Jazz in a must win situation, he could push for minutes in the upper-30s tonight and his price is still at a discount across the industry. There are a lot of reasons to like Hayward in this spot.
Secondary Plays
| Rudy Gobert | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$6,000 | Salary:$5,900 | ||||
| Position:C | Position:C | ||||
| FP/Min:0.89 | FP/Min:0.96 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 32.1 | 28.3 | -3.8 | 27.4 | -4.7 |
| FPPG (FD) | 28.7 | 23.9 | -4.7 | 24.9 | -3.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 11.1 | 10.2 | -0.9 | 11.8 | 0.7 |
If Derrick Favors is ruled out, I would bump Gobert up to an elite play as well. He doesn’t see a major usage boost with Favors off the floor, but his FP/min goes up to 0.98. If Favors is able to suit up, Gobert would become more of a tournament play. He should see big minutes regardless, as the Wolves are not a team that plays small ball.
Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Miami -7.5, 212.5 Over/Under
- Miami Heat Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Johnson-Deng-Stoudemire
- Sacramento Kings Proj. Starters – Rondo-Curry-Gay-Acy-Koufos
| Miami Heat | Sacramento Kings | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 212.5 | | Vegas Total | 212.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 110.0 | Team Proj. | 102.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.70 | Team Pace | 102.30 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Joe Johnson | Luol Deng | Amar’e Stoudemire | Proj. Starter | Rajon Rondo | Seth Curry | Rudy Gay | Quincy Acy | Kosta Koufos | |
| Opp. Season | 23 | 29 | 21 | 30 | 18 | Opp. Season | 2 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 6 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 14 | 22 | 8 | 27 | 15 | Last 3 Weeks | 2 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 17 | |
Miami Heat
Record: 43-31 — Road: 18-18 — Last 10: 6-4
- Miami Heat Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 99.6 (23 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 110.0 (4 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 10.4 (1 of 20)
The Heat have won six of their last ten games and are tied with the Hawks and Hornets with 31 losses on the season. They are fighting for seeding, so they still have plenty of play for. Tonight they head to Sacramento to take on a Boogie-less Kings’ team. The Heat are projected to score 110 points, which gives them the fourth highest team total and the highest projected point differential on the board.
- Sacramento Kings Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.0 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (15 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 212.1 (28 of 30)
The Kings are always one of my favorite teams to target, especially when they are missing their best defender in DeMarcus Cousins. On the season, Sacramento is ranked 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. If this game stays close, the Heat could be one of the best teams to target in DFS tonight.
- Injury Watch:
Chris Bosh (Out)
Tyler Johnson (Out)
Beno Udrih (Out)
Elite Plays
| Hassan Whiteside | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$8,700 | Salary:$8,700 | ||||
| Position:C | Position:C | ||||
| FP/Min:1.23 | FP/Min:1.31 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 29.1 | 31.0 | 1.9 | 32.7 | 3.6 |
| FPPG (FD) | 35.8 | 38.8 | 3.1 | 44.2 | 8.4 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.8 | 18.1 | 2.3 | 18.6 | 2.8 |
Every single night it astonishes me how low owned Whiteside is. I’m not sure if it is just a mental hurdle because he comes off the bench or what, but he has been reaching and exceeding value on a consistent basis. He should have another big game tonight against the Kings, who will be without DeMarcus Cousins. The Kings already struggle to defend the paint and Whiteside should dominate the likes of Kosta Koufos and Willie Cauley-Stein.
| Dwyane Wade | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$7,700 | Salary:$7,200 | ||||
| Position:SG | Position:SG | ||||
| FP/Min:1.04 | FP/Min:1.10 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 30.6 | 30.2 | -0.4 | 30.3 | -0.3 |
| FPPG (FD) | 31.8 | 33.1 | 1.3 | 36.9 | 5.1 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 27.0 | 26.3 | -0.7 | 26.9 | -0.1 |
Wade has been in great form over his last five games, averaging 36.9 fantasy points. He has sort of taken over the last couple of games and with the Heat in need of a win, he is an elite target at shooting guard. There is some concern that this game could get out of hand, but the Heat are only favored by 7.5 points. If you want to pay up at shooting guard, Wade is by far my favorite play.
Secondary Plays
| Goran Dragic | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$6,800 | Salary:$6,900 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.81 | FP/Min:0.88 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 32.9 | 33.9 | 1.0 | 33.7 | 0.8 |
| FPPG (FD) | 26.8 | 32.2 | 5.4 | 28.1 | 1.3 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 18.5 | 21.4 | 2.8 | 20.0 | 1.5 |
Dragic has taken a backseat to Wade over the last few games, but he is still averaging 32.2 fantasy points over his last ten contests. He draws an excellent matchup tonight against the Kings, who are ranked 23rd against point guards this season. In a vacuum, Dragic is an elite play. However, he is my third favorite target on the Heat tonight.
Sacramento Kings
Record: 30-45 — Home: 17-20 — Last 10: 5-5
- Sacramento Kings Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 106.9 (3 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 102.5 (11 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -4.4 (19 of 20)
The Kings have won five of their last ten games, but draw a tough matchup tonight against the Heat. The Kings are listed as 7.5-point underdogs with a low implied team total of 102.5 points. They have the second lowest projected point differential at -4.4.
- Miami Heat Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.2 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.2 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.9 (6 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 189.4 (4 of 30)
The Heat have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season, ranking sixth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. This would typically be a good spot to fade the Kings as a whole, but DeMarcus Cousins has been suspended. Kosta Koufos and Willie Cauley-Stein should both see a nice boost in minutes and/or usage. They are both decent punt plays, but they do not top my list of the best values on the board tonight. Rajon Rondo and Rudy Gay will be responsible for more on the offensive end of the floor, but they are both GPP plays at best in this matchup.
- Injury Watch:
DeMarcus Cousins (Out)
Marco Belinelli (Doubtful)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
NONE
Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Golden State -12, 221.5 Over/Under
- Boston Celtics Proj. Starters – Thomas-Bradley-Turner-Johnson-Sullinger
- Golden State Warriors Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
| Boston Celtics | Golden State Warriors | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 221.5 | | Vegas Total | 221.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 12.0 | Vegas Sprd | -12.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.8 | Team Proj. | 116.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 101.10 | Team Pace | 101.90 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Isaiah Thomas | Avery Bradley | Evan Turner | Amir Johnson | Jared Sullinger | Proj. Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | |
| Opp. Season | 26 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 22 | Opp. Season | 1 | 12 | 22 | 25 | 27 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 18 | 13 | 1 | 22 | 24 | Last 3 Weeks | 3 | 27 | 29 | 14 | 22 | |
Boston Celtics
Record: 43-32 — Road: 18-20 — Last 10: 4-6
- Boston Celtics Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 105.6 (5 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 104.8 (7 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -0.8 (13 of 20)
The Celtics are coming off of a tough loss against the Blazers last night. To make matters worse, they now have to play the tail end of a back-to-back against the best team in the NBA. Boston is listed as a 12-point underdog tonight, but they do have an implied team total of 104.8 points.
- Golden State Warriors Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.1 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.6 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.3 (8 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 201.2 (16 of 30)
The Warriors are a team that we don’t mind targeting players against when we expect the game to stay close. Tonight’s game is tough to predict. On the one hand, the Warriors have not been blowing teams out recently (last six wins have been by less than 16 points). On the other hand, the Celtics are in a tough spot being in the second half of a back-to-back. Jae Crowder returned to the lineup last night, but the Celtics said that he would not play on both Thursday and Friday. We can expect him to sit out tonight.
- Injury Watch:
Jae Crowder (Expected to be out)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
| Isaiah Thomas | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$7,800 | Salary:$7,800 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:1.08 | FP/Min:1.16 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 32.5 | 33.2 | 0.7 | 32.7 | 0.2 |
| FPPG (FD) | 35.2 | 34.5 | -0.6 | 33.5 | -1.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 26.1 | 27.1 | 1.0 | 28.0 | 1.9 |
You could look to Evan Turner tonight in tournaments, but outside of that, Thomas is the only Celtics’ player on my radar. The Warriors have struggled to contain point guards this season and if you take away his game last night, Thomas has been in great form recently. If the Celtics are going to have any chance in this one, they will need a big game from the pizza guy.
Golden State Warriors
Record: 68-7 — Home: 36-0 — Last 10: 9-1
- Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 115.1 (1 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 116.8 (1 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 1.7 (9 of 20)
The Warriors may have the top seed all but locked up, but that doesn’t mean that they don’t have anything to play for. They are determined to win every home game and to break the record for the most wins ever in the regular season. They are sizable favorites tonight against the Celtics at home. The Warriors are projected to score 116.8 points, which is the highest team total on the board.
- Boston Celtics Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.3 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.8 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.0 (20 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 199.3 (12 of 30)
The Celtics are typically a slightly below-average matchup, but the Warriors are matchup-proof and Boston plays at a quick pace. That should play right into the hands of the Warriors. With so many options available tonight, I probably won’t end up on any Warriors in cash games. However, the three stars in Golden State all deserve consideration. Stephen Curry has the most difficult matchup of the three, as the Celtics are ranked first against point guards this season. I will only be using him as a contrarian GPP play tonight.
- Injury Watch:
Andre Iguodala (Out)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
| Draymond Green | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$8,600 | Salary:$8,100 | ||||
| Position:PF | Position:PF | ||||
| FP/Min:1.12 | FP/Min:1.23 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 34.7 | 36.0 | 1.3 | 37.5 | 2.8 |
| FPPG (FD) | 38.8 | 40.6 | 1.8 | 42.8 | 3.9 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.8 | 14.1 | -1.7 | 13.2 | -2.6 |
Green has really played well over his last five games, averaging 42.8 fantasy points in over 37 minutes per contest. He draws the best matchup of the three Warriors’ stars, as the way to attack Boston is typically in their frontcourt. On the season, the Celtics are ranked 25th against power forwards and 20th in rebounding differential.
| Klay Thompson | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$7,300 | Salary:$6,700 | ||||
| Position:SG | Position:SG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.93 | FP/Min:1.02 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 33.2 | 33.5 | 0.3 | 36.1 | 2.9 |
| FPPG (FD) | 31.0 | 33.1 | 2.2 | 36.4 | 5.4 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 22.5 | 23.3 | 0.8 | 24.6 | 2.0 |
Thompson is in play tonight solely because of his price tag. I do not like the matchup against Avery Bradley, who is arguably the best perimeter defender in the NBA. Thompson may be able to get some open looks in transition though, and this game is expected to be played at the fastest pace of any on the schedule tonight.
Washington Wizards at Phoenix Suns – 10:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Washington -7, 214 Over/Under
- Washington Wizards Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Porter-Morris-Gortat
- Phoenix Suns Proj. Starters – Knight-Booker-Tucker-Len-Chandler
| Washington Wizards | Phoenix Suns | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 214.0 | | Vegas Total | 214.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 110.5 | Team Proj. | 103.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.50 | Team Pace | 100.50 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | John Wall | Brad Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | Proj. Starter | Brandon Knight | Devin Booker | P.J. Tucker | Alex Len | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 30 | 27 | 14 | 14 | Opp. Season | 19 | 16 | 24 | 7 | 9 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 25 | 9 | 16 | 18 | 23 | Last 3 Weeks | 21 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 12 | |
Washington Wizards
Record: 36-39 — Road: 17-20 — Last 10: 6-4
- Washington Wizards Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 103.4 (10 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 110.5 (3 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 7.1 (3 of 20)
The Wizards have lost two games in a row and are now three full games behind the Pacers for the eighth and final playoff spot in the East. They aren’t going to throw in the towel just yet, but they have been running their starters ragged recently. Washington is projected to score 110.5 points tonight, which gives them the third highest team total and projected point differential.
- Phoenix Suns Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.8 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.6 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.1 (12 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 209.3 (26 of 30)
The Suns are always a matchup that we want to get exposure to in daily fantasy basketball. On the season, they are ranked 26th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. I’m a little concerned that the Wizards will realize that they are too far out to make the playoffs, but that may not happen for a few more games. Give their offense a sizable boost as a whole tonight.
- Injury Watch:
Alan Anderson (Questionable)
Elite Plays
| Brad Beal | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$5,900 | Salary:$5,800 | ||||
| Position:SG | Position:SG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.85 | FP/Min:0.91 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 31.1 | 32.8 | 1.7 | 34.6 | 3.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 26.4 | 27.0 | 0.5 | 24.9 | -1.5 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 21.3 | 19.1 | -2.2 | 18.6 | -2.7 |
Beal is no longer on a minute restriction. Over his last five games, he is averaging 34.6 minutes per contest. He is still a bit too cheap for the upside that he brings to the table and he draws the best possible matchup that a shooting guard could have. On the season, the Suns are ranked dead last against the position.
| Otto Porter | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$5,500 | Salary:$5,500 | ||||
| Position:SF | Position:SF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.76 | FP/Min:0.81 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 30.7 | 34.1 | 3.4 | 34.6 | 3.9 |
| FPPG (FD) | 23.4 | 26.8 | 3.4 | 25.0 | 1.6 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 14.1 | 13.3 | -0.8 | 12.5 | -1.6 |
Porter isn’t going to get as much attention as he deserves in this slate. Small forward is a relatively thin position and he has seen a boost in minutes and fantasy production over his last ten games. He should see around 35 minutes tonight in a favorable matchup against one of the worst defensive teams in the entire NBA.
Secondary Plays
| John Wall | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$9,600 | Salary:$10,300 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:1.17 | FP/Min:1.29 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 36.1 | 37.2 | 1.1 | 38.7 | 2.6 |
| FPPG (FD) | 42.4 | 44.5 | 2.1 | 40.4 | -2.0 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 24.7 | 24.1 | -0.6 | 22.4 | -2.3 |
Wall was a letdown the other night against the Kings, but he ended up getting five fantasy points in the last few seconds, which salvaged his game a little bit. He seems a bit too expensive on DraftKings, but is a borderline elite play on FanDuel. The Suns are one of the worst teams against point guards and we all know the type of upside that Wall provides.
| Marcin Gortat | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$6,400 | Salary:$6,400 | ||||
| Position:C | Position:C | ||||
| FP/Min:0.99 | FP/Min:1.05 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 30.3 | 30.4 | 0.1 | 32.9 | 2.6 |
| FPPG (FD) | 29.9 | 29.0 | -0.9 | 31.4 | 1.5 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.3 | 14.6 | -0.7 | 13.8 | -1.5 |
The Suns used to be a pretty stout defense against centers, but that hasn’t been the case for a while. They are ranked 23rd against the position over the last three weeks and 14th against the position overall. Gortat should see minutes in the low-30s tonight and he makes a very safe cash game target at center.
| Markieff Morris | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$4,900 | Salary:$4,900 | ||||
| Position:PF | Position:PF | ||||
| FP/Min:0.86 | FP/Min:0.93 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 25.0 | 24.3 | -0.7 | 23.0 | -2.0 |
| FPPG (FD) | 21.6 | 23.0 | 1.4 | 21.3 | -0.3 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 19.6 | 19.0 | -0.5 | 18.7 | -0.9 |
The ultimate revenge narrative is brewing for Markieff. Things did not end well in Phoenix and even though Jeff Hornacek isn’t there anymore, Morris would love to post a big game against his former team. I’m not in love with his current form or his recent playing time, but I expect him to come out firing tonight.
Phoenix Suns
Record: 20-55 — Home: 13-24 — Last 10: 3-7
- Phoenix Suns Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 100.5 (22 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 103.5 (10 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 3.0 (8 of 20)
The Suns have lost seven of their last ten games and are listed as 7-point underdogs tonight against the Wizards. Phoenix is projected to score 103.5 points, which gives them the tenth highest team total and the eighth highest projected point differential on the board.
- Washington Wizards Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.5 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.9 (25 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 200.5 (14 of 30)
The Wizards have been a slightly above-average matchup for fantasy production this season. They are ranked 21st in points allowed per game. The Suns’ offense should have some success here and their starters have all been playing big minutes. The one injury to monitor is Mirza Teletovic. He is listed as questionable. I will not be chasing the 46.5 fantasy point game from P.J. Tucker. I’d rather spend a bit more and target Otto Porter.
- Injury Watch:
Mirza Teletovic (Questionable)
Elite Plays
| Brandon Knight | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$6,900 | Salary:$7,100 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.88 | FP/Min:0.97 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 36.0 | 35.8 | -0.2 | 35.9 | -0.1 |
| FPPG (FD) | 31.6 | 32.9 | 1.2 | 32.9 | 1.3 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 22.2 | 22.8 | 0.6 | 22.8 | 0.7 |
Knight has been an easy player to predict recently. He has struggled in difficult matchups (Bucks and Celtics) and he has played well in favorable ones (Wolves and Lakers). He is a stat-stuffing point guard that has 50 fantasy point upside tonight against the Wizards at home. He should see 35+ minutes in this game and dollar for dollar I prefer him over his opponent, John Wall.
| Devin Booker | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$7,000 | Salary:$6,900 | ||||
| Position:SG | Position:SG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.73 | FP/Min:0.79 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 27.1 | 37.0 | 9.9 | 38.0 | 10.9 |
| FPPG (FD) | 19.7 | 30.8 | 11.2 | 34.4 | 14.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 18.9 | 22.9 | 4.0 | 24.3 | 5.4 |
Booker is basically playing close to 40 minutes every night, he has an elite usage rate, and he draws a nice matchup against the Wizards. It’s hard to find a reason not to like him tonight at home against Bradley Beal and company. Booker has been tremendous over his last five games, averaging 34.4 fantasy points per contest.
Secondary Plays
| Alex Len | |||||
| FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$6,500 | Salary:$6,000 | ||||
| Position:PF | Position:C | ||||
| FP/Min:0.92 | FP/Min:0.99 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 22.6 | 30.2 | 7.6 | 31.7 | 9.1 |
| FPPG (FD) | 20.7 | 26.3 | 5.5 | 28.5 | 7.8 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 16.5 | 17.8 | 1.3 | 16.9 | 0.4 |
After being dormant for a few weeks, Len Fuego broke out with a massive 44.5 fantasy point outing against the Bucks. He draws a slightly more difficult matchup tonight, but he would see a small minutes boost if Mirza Teletovic is unable to suit up. I will not be looking Len’s way in cash games, but he is a strong GPP play tonight at home.
