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NBA Grind Down: Friday, April 1st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-04-02 02:42:04

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM

Philadelphia 76ers Charlotte Hornets
philadelphianba Vegas Total 206.5 charlottenba Vegas Total 206.5
Vegas Sprd 15.0 Vegas Sprd -15.0
Team Proj. 95.8 Team Proj. 110.8
Team Pace 100.40 Team Pace 97.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ishmael Smith Isaiah Canaan Hollis Thompson Robert Covington Carl Landry Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Courtney Lee Nicolas Batum Marvin Williams Cody Zeller
Opp. Season 11 13 19 21 13 Opp. Season 28 19 29 28 30
Last 3 Weeks 11 11 10 15 19 Last 3 Weeks 29 21 28 24 14

Philadelphia 76ers

Record: 9-66 — Road: 3-35 — Last 10: 0-10

The Sixers have lost ten games in a row and most of those games have been, shall we say, less than competitive. They are listed as 15-point underdogs tonight against the Hornets in Charlotte. The Sixers are only projected to score 95.8 points, which is the second lowest team total on the board.

The Hornets have been very tough defensively this season, ranking eighth in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. Nerlens Noel and Richaun Holmes are both expected to miss tonight’s game. Jerami Grant will play, but will be on a minute restriction. While the matchup isn’t a favorable one, the injuries open up a few plays from the Sixers.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Robert Covington
robert-covington-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,500 Salary:$6,400
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.86 FP/Min:0.96
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.6 29.5 1.9 29.5 1.9
FPPG (FD) 23.7 32.3 8.6 32.3 8.6
TO-Adj. Usage 16.5 21.3 4.8 21.3 4.8

Covington has been on a tear over his last ten games, averaging 32.3 fantasy points. His usage rate has been up with Jahlil Okafor and Nerlens Noel out of the lineup and if he can stay out of foul trouble, he could see upwards of 35 minutes tonight. He is by far my favorite play on the Sixers, but his price is getting to the point where he is more of a secondary play.

Hollis Thompson
hollis-thompson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,600 Salary:$4,500
Position:SF Position:SG
FP/Min:0.59 FP/Min:0.65
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.0 32.5 4.5 32.4 4.4
FPPG (FD) 16.6 23.2 6.6 24.6 8.0
TO-Adj. Usage 13.3 15.4 2.1 15.6 2.3

Even though Jerami Grant is expected to play tonight, Thompson should still see minutes in the low to mid-30s. He has quietly played well over his last ten games, averaging 23.2 fantasy points. His usage is also up during that stretch (15.4) and his price is still affordable on both FanDuel ($4,600) and DraftKings ($4,500).

Charlotte Hornets

Record: 43-31 — Home: 27-11 — Last 10: 7-3

The Hornets have won seven of their last ten games and are currently tied with the Hawks and Celtics with 31 losses on the season. They have a lot to play for the rest of the way, as they could realistically finish anywhere from the three seed to the six seed. They should be able to pick up a win tonight at home against the Sixers. The Hornets are projected to score 110.8 points, which gives them the second highest team total and projected point differential.

The Sixers’ defense has managed to get even worse over the last month of play. They are now ranked 25th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Hornets cruised to an easy win over the Sixers on Tuesday night and will likely do the same tonight. While the matchup is in their favor, the starters could see limited minutes in a potential blowout.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Nicolas Batum
nicolas-batum-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,100 Salary:$7,700
Position:SF Position:SG
FP/Min:0.89 FP/Min:0.98
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.6 36.2 0.6 34.5 -1.1
FPPG (FD) 31.8 38.5 6.7 36.3 4.6
TO-Adj. Usage 17.8 20.5 2.7 20.2 2.4

Batum messed around and got a triple-double the other night against the Sixers, finishing the game with 19 points, 11 rebounds, and 12 assists. He has taken on a much larger role in the offense recently, which is a major reason why we have seen a decline in Kemba Walker production. Given the spread, Batum is more of a GPP play tonight, but he has 50 fantasy point upside in this matchup.

Cody Zeller
cody-zeller-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,600 Salary:$4,000
Position:PF Position:C
FP/Min:0.82 FP/Min:0.85
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 24.7 23.4 -1.3 23.8 -0.9
FPPG (FD) 20.2 20.0 -0.2 22.4 2.2
TO-Adj. Usage 13.0 11.1 -1.8 10.7 -2.3

Zeller isn’t a player that you are going to find on many of my lineups. Generally, when I’m targeting a value play, I want them to have minute upside. Zeller basically caps out at around 25-26 minutes. He offers decent value tonight against the Sixers, who are ranked dead last against centers. They also have the worst rebounding differential in the NBA.

Dallas Mavericks at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM

Dallas Mavericks Detroit Pistons
dallasnba Vegas Total 205.5 detroitnba Vegas Total 205.5
Vegas Sprd 5.5 Vegas Sprd -5.5
Team Proj. 100.0 Team Proj. 105.5
Team Pace 96.90 Team Pace 97.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Raymond Felton Justin Anderson Wesley Matthews Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Tobias Harris Marcus Morris Andre Drummond
Opp. Season 12 7 4 13 10 Opp. Season 14 10 9 27 16
Last 3 Weeks 27 2 19 25 28 Last 3 Weeks 30 15 23 16 9

Dallas Mavericks

Record: 37-38 — Road: 16-21 — Last 10: 4-6

The Mavericks have lost six of their last ten games, but currently hold a half-game lead over the Rockets in the Western Conference playoff picture. Tonight they head to Detroit to take on a Pistons’ team that is also fighting for their playoff lives. The Mavericks are only projected to score 100 points in this matchup, which gives them the fifth lowest team total and the third lowest projected point differential.

The Pistons are not a matchup that we should try to actively target. On the season, they are ranked 13th or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. J.J. Barea has played well off the bench recently, but he is too expensive to use outside of a GPP. Dirk Nowitzki has shot a combined 15-of-55 over his last three games (27.3%). He is an intriguing tournament play, but is also too expensive to use in cash games.

Elite Plays

Zaza Pachulia
zaza-pachulia-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,600 Salary:$3,300
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.89 FP/Min:0.96
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.7 14.7 -12.0 21.8 -4.9
FPPG (FD) 23.9 11.5 -12.4 15.6 -8.3
TO-Adj. Usage 13.2 14.8 1.5 12.2 -1.1

Pachulia wasn’t even on my radar until he was announced as the starter tonight. He went from being an easy fade to being an elite play in a matter of minutes. The Mavericks need size down low to match up against Andre Drummond. Pachulia has not played well recently, but he is averaging 0.89 FP/min on the season. If we project him for 25 minutes tonight (which seems reasonable), he’ll have a great chance of exceeding value.

Secondary Plays

Wesley Matthews
wesley-matthews-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,000 Salary:$4,900
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.61 FP/Min:0.67
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.4 35.1 1.7 36.1 2.7
FPPG (FD) 20.4 23.3 2.9 28.3 7.9
TO-Adj. Usage 14.8 14.4 -0.4 16.3 1.5

Matthews is a borderline elite play tonight at shooting guard, but he isn’t at the top of my list when it comes to value plays. He has seen a nice boost in both usage and minutes with Deron Williams and Chandler Parsons out and the Mavericks are in a must-win situation tonight. He should see 36-38 minutes. The only thing holding him back tonight is his matchup. Detroit is ranked seventh against shooting guards and fourth against small forwards this season.

Detroit Pistons

Record: 40-35 — Home: 25-13 — Last 10: 7-3

The Pistons have won seven of their last ten games and are currently in seventh place in the Eastern Conference standings. They have a one game lead over the Pacers and a two game lead over the Bulls. The Pistons are 5.5-point favorites tonight against the Mavericks at home. They are projected to score 105.5 points, which gives them the fifth highest team total and the seventh highest projected point differential.

The Mavericks have not fared well defensively over the last three weeks. During that stretch, they are ranked 30th against point guards, 23rd against small forwards, and 16th against power forwards. On the season, they are ranked below the league average in all four of the defensive categories listed above. With the Pistons’ starters logging heavy minutes down the stretch of the regular season, there are a number of viable fantasy options here.

Elite Plays

Andre Drummond
andre-drummond-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,100 Salary:$7,400
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.19 FP/Min:1.28
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.1 31.7 -1.4 32.7 -0.4
FPPG (FD) 39.5 36.8 -2.7 40.7 1.3
TO-Adj. Usage 20.3 18.8 -1.4 19.1 -1.1

Drummond hasn’t played great since the All-Star break. Most people have just glossed over him recently, even though he has turned it on over his last five games. During that stretch, he is averaging 40.7 fantasy points in just under 33 minutes per contest. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against a Mavericks’ frontcourt that is undersized. He should eat up the likes of Zaza Pachulia, Salah Mejri, and Dwight Powell.

Secondary Plays

Tobias Harris
tobias-harris-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,300 Salary:$6,000
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.83 FP/Min:0.88
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.9 31.6 -1.3 33.3 0.4
FPPG (FD) 27.2 28.4 1.2 30.6 3.4
TO-Adj. Usage 16.8 19.5 2.6 19.4 2.6

Harris is a safe cash game target tonight. With the Pistons fighting for the playoffs, their starter’s minutes are as secure as anyone’s. Harris comes into this game is solid form, averaging 30.6 fantasy points over his last five games. He also draws a nice matchup against the Mavericks, who are ranked 27th against power forwards this season.

Marcus Morris
marcus-morris-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,700 Salary:$5,300
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.68 FP/Min:0.73
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.7 34.9 -0.8 37.4 1.7
FPPG (FD) 24.2 27.4 3.2 30.2 6.0
TO-Adj. Usage 16.0 15.2 -0.8 15.5 -0.6

Morris has been on fire over his last five games, averaging 30.2 fantasy points in over 37 minutes per contest. He draws a decent matchup tonight against the Mavericks and he should see minutes in the upper-30s once again. Regression will hit eventually, but Morris is a fine target in all league formats tonight at home.

Brooklyn Nets at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM

Brooklyn Nets New York Knicks
brooklynnba Vegas Total 203.5 newyorknba Vegas Total 203.5
Vegas Sprd 5.0 Vegas Sprd -5.0
Team Proj. 99.3 Team Proj. 104.3
Team Pace 97.20 Team Pace 95.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Shane Larkin Sergey Karasev Bojan Bogdanovic Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Sasha Vujacic Carmelo Anthony Derrick Williams Robin Lopez
Opp. Season 20 17 10 6 12 Opp. Season 24 25 23 18 26
Last 3 Weeks 20 17 20 4 6 Last 3 Weeks 9 28 30 17 27

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 21-54 — Road: 7-30 — Last 10: 3-7

The Nets have lost seven of their last ten games and have been a frustrated team to try to predict over their last few games. They have been resting or limiting their veterans and they have had a very deep rotation. Tonight they head to New York to take on the Knicks in a game that features a spread of five points. The Nets are only projected to score 99.3 points, which is the fourth lowest team total on the board.

The Knicks have been a neutral matchup for fantasy production this season, ranking between 11th and 19th in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Brook Lopez and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson sat out last night’s game, but both should return to the lineup tonight. Keep your eye out for the Nets possibly resting a starter or two again tonight. Thomas Robinson would become close to a must start if Thaddeus Young is rested again.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Shane Larkin
shane-larkin-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,900 Salary:$4,100
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.77 FP/Min:0.82
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 21.6 26.0 4.4 30.4 8.8
FPPG (FD) 16.7 20.8 4.1 26.3 9.7
TO-Adj. Usage 15.2 14.4 -0.7 14.9 -0.3

There may only be one player on the Nets that we can trust minute-wise. That would be Larkin. Even in blowouts the last two games, he has played big minutes. He has played at least 29 minutes in each of his last three games and he is averaging 26.3 fantasy points over his last five games. Larkin is a viable punt play in all league formats tonight. I would bump him up to an elite play (with Thomas Robinson) if Thaddeus Young is rested.

New York Knicks

Record: 30-46 — Home: 17-20 — Last 10: 3-7

The Knicks have lost seven of their last ten games, but are 5-point favorites tonight against the Nets at home. The Knicks are projected to score 104.3 points, which gives them the eighth highest team total and the fifth highest projected point differential.

The Nets are always an exploitable matchup, especially when the game is expected to stay competitive. On the season, they are ranked 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. It sounds like a few of the Knicks talked to Kurt Rambis about playing less minutes down the stretch of the season, which makes it tough to predict rotations. Kristaps Porzingis and Jose Calderon are both questionable tonight. Derrick Williams, Jerian Grant, and Langston Galloway would benefit if those two are ruled out.

Elite / Secondary Plays

TBD – If Kristaps Porzingis is out, Derrick Williams would become an elite play. If Jose Calderon is ruled out, whoever starts at point guard would become an elite play, while the other would become a viable secondary option.

Derrick Williams
derrick-williams-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,600 Salary:$3,500
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.87 FP/Min:0.91
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 17.2 20.6 3.4 21.1 3.9
FPPG (FD) 15.0 16.8 1.8 16.0 1.0
TO-Adj. Usage 20.4 18.3 -2.1 16.7 -3.6
Langston Galloway
langston-galloway-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,500 Salary:$3,200
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.70 FP/Min:0.73
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 24.5 21.5 -3.0 17.6 -6.9
FPPG (FD) 17.1 16.2 -0.9 13.4 -3.7
TO-Adj. Usage 14.1 15.6 1.5 15.4 1.3
Jerian Grant
jerian-grant-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,500 Salary:$3,300
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.68 FP/Min:0.74
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 15.4 14.4 -1.0 14.0 -1.4
FPPG (FD) 10.4 9.5 -1.0 7.4 -3.0
TO-Adj. Usage 15.8 17.0 1.1 13.9 -1.9

Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM

Orlando Magic Milwaukee Bucks
orlandonba Vegas Total 208.0 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 208.0
Vegas Sprd 3.0 Vegas Sprd -3.0
Team Proj. 102.5 Team Proj. 105.5
Team Pace 98.00 Team Pace 96.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Dewayne Dedmon Proj. Starter Tyler Ennis Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Greg Monroe
Opp. Season 5 23 26 17 21 Opp. Season 15 4 16 23 19
Last 3 Weeks 1 4 25 10 13 Last 3 Weeks 5 5 13 23 30

Orlando Magic

Record: 32-43 — Road: 12-26 — Last 10: 4-6

The Magic have lost six of their last ten games and are now 11 games below .500 for the season. Tonight they head to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks in a game that has a total of 208 points. The Magic are projected to score 102.5 points, which is right around the average of the 20 teams in action tonight.

The Bucks have not fared well defensively this season, ranking at or below the league average in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Milwaukee has been tough on point guards this season, which when combined with an inflated salary for Elfrid Payton, becomes an easy fade. Nikola Vucevic returned to the lineup last night and played 25 minutes. While he is still a risky option at this point, we can start targeting him as soon as we feel confident that he will play 30+ minutes.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Milwaukee Bucks

Record: 31-44 — Home: 22-15 — Last 10: 4-6

The Bucks have been in mediocre form recently, losing six of their last ten games. They are listed as 3-point favorites tonight against the Magic. The Bucks are projected to score 105.5 points, which gives them the fifth highest team total and the fourth highest projected point differential on the board.

The Magic have been tough on opposing backcourts recently, but they have struggled against small forwards and opposing frontcourts. On the season, Orlando is ranked 16th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Jerryd Bayless is not expected to play tonight, after suffering a knee injury on Wednesday. If Tyler Ennis can suit up (questionable), he is expected to draw the start at point guard. If Ennis starts, he would be a viable punt tonight.

Elite Plays

Jabari Parker
jabari-parker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,300 Salary:$5,700
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.75 FP/Min:0.79
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.3 34.7 3.4 34.5 3.2
FPPG (FD) 23.5 26.2 2.7 27.0 3.5
TO-Adj. Usage 17.1 17.3 0.2 16.4 -0.7

Parker is more of a secondary play tonight on FanDuel ($6,300), but his $5,700 price tag on DraftKings makes him an elite power forward option. Despite some difficult matchups, Parker is still averaging 27 fantasy points over his last five games. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Magic and he should see 35+ minutes.

Secondary Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo
giannis-antetokounmpo-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,200 Salary:$9,100
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.97 FP/Min:1.04
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.2 34.6 -0.6 34.7 -0.5
FPPG (FD) 34.2 38.5 4.3 31.6 -2.6
TO-Adj. Usage 18.6 20.1 1.5 18.2 -0.4

Giannis was one of the most popular plays at any position on Wednesday and he let a lot of people down in a big way. It was a perfect matchup for his game, but he only finished with 22 fantasy points. Tonight is a great night to hop back on board, at least in tournaments. His ownership is going to be way down and with Jerryd Bayless out, his role as the point guard is solidified in this offense.

Khris Middleton
khris-middleton-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,000 Salary:$6,700
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.83 FP/Min:0.90
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.4 33.4 -3.0 32.8 -3.6
FPPG (FD) 30.3 28.4 -1.9 27.3 -3.0
TO-Adj. Usage 19.7 18.0 -1.7 18.6 -1.1

I originally had Middleton listed as an elite play tonight, but Victor Oladipo is an excellent defender. On the season, the Magic are ranked fourth in fantasy points allowed to shooting guards. Middleton is still a little too cheap though and he should fly under the radar tonight.

John Henson
john-henson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,400 Salary:$3,800
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.99 FP/Min:1.04
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 17.1 19.3 2.2 21.7 4.6
FPPG (FD) 16.9 21.1 4.2 25.4 8.5
TO-Adj. Usage 15.1 17.0 1.9 19.4 4.3

Henson is coming off of a terrific three-game stretch where he put up 34, 36, and 28 fantasy points. He may not have the minute upside that I like to look for, but we know that he is going to be productive while on the floor. I would consider him a borderline elite play on DraftKings, where his price is $600 cheaper than it is on FanDuel.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks – 8:00 PM

Cleveland Cavaliers Atlanta Hawks
clevelandnba Vegas Total 206.5 atlantanba Vegas Total 206.5
Vegas Sprd 1.5 Vegas Sprd -1.5
Team Proj. 102.5 Team Proj. 104.0
Team Pace 95.50 Team Pace 99.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Timofey Mozgov Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford
Opp. Season 6 19 12 12 23 Opp. Season 16 8 3 2 1
Last 3 Weeks 16 25 3 6 18 Last 3 Weeks 10 26 7 11 8

Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 53-22 — Road: 22-15 — Last 10: 6-4

The Cavaliers have lost four of their last ten games, but still hold a two and a half game lead over the Raptors for the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Tonight they head to Atlanta to take on the Hawks in a game that features a very close spread. The Cavaliers are only projected to score 102.5 points, which gives them the sixth lowest projected point differential at -1.4.

The Hawks have been solid defensively this season, ranking sixth in points allowed per game and second in defensive efficiency. This should not be considered a good matchup, although the close spread does help the appeal of the Cavaliers. After last night’s win over the Nets, Tyronn Lue said that he wouldn’t rest any starters tonight. Make sure to check the starting lineup just in case. Assuming all three of the Cavaliers’ stars are active, they become an easy fade tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kevin Love
kevin-love-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,800 Salary:$7,200
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.02 FP/Min:1.11
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.7 28.9 -2.8 30.7 -1.0
FPPG (FD) 32.3 31.1 -1.2 35.9 3.6
TO-Adj. Usage 19.8 21.5 1.7 22.2 2.4

Love is the only Cavaliers’ player on my radar tonight. The Hawks have been stout defensively this season, but they are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA. If I am targeting any players against them, it is going to be a big man that rebounds the ball well. Love comes into this game in good form, averaging 35.9 fantasy points in his last five games.

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 45-31 — Home: 24-13 — Last 10: 8-2

The Hawks have won eight of their last ten games and currently sit in third place in the Eastern Conference standings. Every game from here on out is important, as they could easily drop down to the six seed. The Hawks are listed as 1.5-point favorites tonight against the Cavaliers with an implied team total of 104 points.

Even though the Hawks have the ninth highest team total on the board tonight, the Cavaliers are not a team that we should go out of our way to target players against. On the season, Cleveland is ranked tenth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. This should be a fun game to watch, but there are better ones to target for DFS tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Jeff Teague
jeff-teague-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,500 Salary:$5,900
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.98 FP/Min:1.06
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.3 27.7 -0.6 29.0 0.7
FPPG (FD) 27.7 29.2 1.5 31.0 3.3
TO-Adj. Usage 22.3 24.4 2.0 25.0 2.6

Teague is an intriguing tournament play tonight. Even though he draws the best matchup of the Hawks’ starters, his ownership will be in the 5% range in GPPs. Teague has played well over his last five games and this is a contest where he could end up playing minutes in the low to mid-30s.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious