NBA Grind Down: Friday, April 20th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-04-20 17:58:01

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers							Indiana Pacers
			Vegas Total		209.0					Vegas Total		209.0
			Vegas Spread		1.0					Vegas Spread		-1.0
			Implied Team Total		104.0					Implied Team Total		105.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.4					Pace Projection +/-		0.5
Projected Starters	George Hill	J.R. Smith	Kyle Korver	LeBron James	Kevin Love		Projected Starters	Darren Collison	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Myles Turner
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	6	6	9	13	24		DvP	25	22	29	17	19
DRPM Rat.	19	1	21	5	18		DRPM Rat.	22	27	5	21	15

Cleveland Cavaliers

LeBron James may have had the best outing of any player that we will see all postseason in Game 2 (46 points, 12 rebounds, and 5 assists) and the Cavaliers barely beat the Pacers at home. Despite adding depth at the trade deadline, this team will only go as far as LeBron can take them. Game 3 is always pivotal when a series is tied at a game apiece. The Cavaliers are currently one-point underdogs with an implied total of 104 points. The matchup doesn’t look terrible on paper, but Cleveland has the worst projected point differential (-6.9) of the slate.

I’ll start with LeBron James because he’s really the only player on this team that we can trust. From a projection standpoint, he’s the top overall play of the slate. I slightly prefer John Wall thanks to the price discount, but there is no reason why you can’t play both. James knows that they need to win one of these next two games and he’d much rather get it out of the way early. George Hill got into foul trouble (again) in Game 2 and only logged 20 minutes. He has the potential to play 28-30 minutes at a price of only $3,800 on FanDuel, but he’s best suited as a tournament play. Everyone will gravitate to Kyle Korver as their value shooting guard, but I’d rather play J.R. Smith if the ownership is going to be lower.

Kevin Love hurt his thumb in the fourth quarter of Game 2 and wasn’t able to return, but it sounds like he’ll give it a go tonight. While he does represent an intriguing leverage play in tournaments, there are too many red flags to target him in cash games. In addition to the injury, Love is expensive and hasn’t been in the best of form. Larry Nance has played 29 and 24 minutes over the last two games, but five of those minutes in Game 2 came after Love went down with his injury. Nance is still viable in tournaments given the fact that he averages nearly a fantasy point per minute, he could easily go back to playing minutes in the mid-teens tonight.

Notable Injuries

Kevin Love (Probable)

Cleveland Cavaliers Offense

Points Per Game: 110.9 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.0 (5 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -6.9 (6 of 6)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.2 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (23 of 30)

Elite Plays – LeBron James, J.R. Smith (FD)

Secondary Plays – Kyle Korver (FD), George Hill (FD), Kevin Love (GPP), Larry Nance (GPP)

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers picked up the split they were hoping for in Cleveland, although they were nearly able to snag Game 2 to take a commanding lead in the series. Strictly from a matchup standpoint, the Blazers (who are as good as toast) and the Pacers have been the teams to target. During the regular season, the Cavaliers were ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Pacers come into Game 3 with an implied total of 105 points, which is the third highest of the slate.

Darren Collison has averaged 32 minutes and 29 fantasy points in this series and is still priced below $6,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He’ll end up being one of the highest owned point guard of the slate, but rightly so. I wouldn’t put much stock into Cory Joseph and his 25 minutes in Game 2, as that was largely thanks to Victor Oladipo getting into early foul trouble. I’m going back and forth on what I want to do with Oladipo tonight. He’s been very good so far in this series, but I want to pay up for LeBron James and John Wall. It’s impossible to get all three, so I’ll probably only end up using Oladipo in tournaments. Lance Stephenson has been involved quite often in this series and is only $3,800 on FanDuel if you need savings at small forward.

One of my favorite plays of the night is Bojan Bogdanovic. Nobody played him in Game 1 when he 32 fantasy points, then everyone played him in Game 2 when he scored 19 fantasy points. Recency bias will lead to lower ownership tonight, even though he should play 35+ minutes in an elite matchup at home. I will gladly play Bogdanovic at low ownership in both cash games and tournaments. Thaddeus Young has been quiet so far in this series and his price is still too expensive on FanDuel. Myles Turner has averaged 35 minutes in the first two games. While the production hasn’t been great, this is still an excellent matchup and he’ll now get to feed off the home crowd.

Notable Injuries

None

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game: 105.6 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.0 (3 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -0.6 (2 of 6)

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.9 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.5 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.5 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (12 of 30)

Elite Plays – Darren Collison, Bojan Bogdanovic, Myles Turner

Secondary Plays – Victor Oladipo, Lance Stephenson (FD), Thaddeus Young (DK)

Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards – 8:00 PM ET

Toronto Raptors							Washington Wizards
			Vegas Total		218.0					Vegas Total		218.0
			Vegas Spread		2.0					Vegas Spread		-2.0
			Implied Team Total		108.0					Implied Team Total		110.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.7					Pace Projection +/-		0.2
Projected Starters	Kyle Lowry	DeMar DeRozan	OG Anunoby	Serge Ibaka	Jonas Valanciunas		Projected Starters	John Wall	Bradley Beal	Otto Porter	Markieff Morris	Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	10	16	19	5	9		DvP	8	3	3	8	22
DRPM Rat.	12	14	2	19	7		DRPM Rat.	2	22	4	9	21

Toronto Raptors

Transparency from DFS content providers is always good. I’m not going to lie, I have been playing into the narratives a little too often here in the early part of the playoffs. I keep expecting teams to show up in certain spots and it hasn’t really happened. Today, I will focus more on the matchups (with the occasional narrative). The Raptors have a 2-0 lead in the series (which I believe is the first time ever or the first time in a very long time), but have to face the Wizards in Washington tonight. They are two-point underdogs with the second highest implied total (108 points) on the board.

Kyle Lowry bounced back from his poor Game 1 performance with 39 fantasy points in Game 2. The Raptors’ bench has been solid all season, but I expect Toronto to lean on their two stars now that the series shifts to Washington. With a lot of attention being paid to John Wall and Darren Collison, Lowry could slip between the cracks when it comes to ownership. There is a narrative that DeMar DeRozan struggles against long defenders, but he has averaged 43 fantasy points in his six meetings with Otto Porter and the Wizards this season. I will be going right back to the well at a price point under $8,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

I don’t have a ton of interest in the role players here. Delon Wright, OG Anunboy, and C.J. Miles have all been good in the first two games of the series, but it’s typically a different story on the road in the playoffs. Serge Ibaka has averaged 32 minutes and 38 fantasy points so far in this series. He has plenty of playoff experience, which is always a plus. While I don’t love his price point, he’s on my short list of potential tournament targets. Is it just me, or is there a point in every game where it looks like Jonas Valanciunas is going to score 60 fantasy points? He has these insane stretches where he makes every shot and grabs every rebound. I understand the play in tournaments, but have a hard time paying this price for a player that I can’t project to play more than 23-25 minutes.

Notable Injuries

Fred VanVleet (Questionable)

Toronto Raptors Offense

Points Per Game: 111.7 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.0 (2 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -3.7 (4 of 6)

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.0 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (18 of 30)

Elite Plays – DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry (GPP), Serge Ibaka (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry (Cash), Serge Ibaka (Cash), Jonas Valanciunas (GPP)

Washington Wizards

The Wizards put up a good fight in the first two games, but will need some magic here at home in order to extend this series. They essentially need to pick up the next two games and then it becomes a best of three series. On paper, this isn’t the most exploitable matchup, but I love the pace that these games have been played at. The total points scored in the first two games were 220 and 249. With a close spread in Game 3, this is a good game to stack in both cash games and tournaments. The Wizards have the highest implied total on the board at 110 points.

John Wall is my favorite superstar of the slate, which is a little scary to say when LeBron James is consistently putting up 70 fantasy points. My reasoning is simple — Wall has not played well in the first two games of the series (15-for-37 from the floor with nine turnovers), yet he has still averaged 54 fantasy points. He’s going to push for 38-40 minutes tonight in a must-win game at home. I’m not only expecting a big game, I’m expecting a huge game from Wall. Bradley Beal has not been good in this series. While I like the price point on DraftKings ($6,700), he’s a little too hit or miss for me. Otto Porter only played a single minute in the fourth quarter of Game 2’s blowout, which is why his minute average came down in the series. I’m expecting him to play minutes in the low-30s tonight, which puts him in play for both cash games and tournaments.

Markieff Morris is the box of chocolates for the Wizards. They never quite know which version they are going to get. He’s a player that feeds off emotion, so it doesn’t hurt that this game is being played in Washington. After a big outing in Game 1, he got into early foul trouble in Game 2 and could never really find a rhythm. Much like Serge Ibaka, I don’t expect Morris to garner a ton of ownership on FanDuel, which makes him an excellent tournament play. On DraftKings ($5,500), he’s one of the best point-per-dollar options at forward. Marcin Gortat aka the Polish Whiteside picked up two early fouls in Game 2 and logged a total of 12 minutes. This is a good bounce-back opportunity, although I hesitate to recommend him as a cash game option. Mike Scott has benefitted from foul trouble in the first two games, but he’s played well enough that he should see minutes in the mid-20s again tonight. I don’t love the idea of a chalky Scott, but it’s hard to argue against playing him at this price.

Notable Injuries

Jodie Meeks (Out)

Washington Wizards Offense

Points Per Game: 106.6 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.0 (1 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 3.4 (1 of 6)

Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.4 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.6 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.8 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – John Wall, Otto Porter, Mike Scott, Marcin Gortat (GPP), Markieff Morris (DK)

Secondary Plays – Marcin Gortat (Cash), Markieff Morris (FD), Bradley Beal

Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks – 9:30 PM ET

Boston Celtics							Milwaukee Bucks
			Vegas Total		203.0					Vegas Total		203.0
			Vegas Spread		6.0					Vegas Spread		-6.0
			Implied Team Total		98.5					Implied Team Total		104.5
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.1					Pace Projection +/-		-1.4
Projected Starters	Terry Rozier	Jaylen Brown	Jayson Tatum	Al Horford	Aron Baynes		Projected Starters	Eric Bledsoe	Tony Snell	Khris Middleton	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Tyler Zeller
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	3	11	6	11	28		DvP	2	5	12	1	2
DRPM Rat.	8	28	23	5	22		DRPM Rat.	6	2	3	2	1

Boston Celtics

The Celtics managed to win both games at home to take a 2-0 series lead against the Bucks, but this feels like it could be a long series. The Celtics are the biggest underdogs of the slate with the spread for this game being set at six points. While that’s not a huge concern, the total is considerably lower than the other two games on the schedule. Both of these teams play at a slow pace and Milwaukee has all of the tools needed to be a good team defensively. The Celtics have the lowest implied total on the board at 98.5 points.

Terry Rozier looked out of sorts in the first three quarters of this series. He came alive in the fourth and in overtime of Game 1 and followed it up with a 45 fantasy point outing in Game 2. He’s going to be low owned once again if you want to give him a look in tournaments. Jaylen Brown has averaged 39 minutes and 35 fantasy points in the first two games of the series, but his price has come up across the industry. I still prefer him over Jayson Tatum, but may end up fading both. This low team total for the Celtics makes me a little nervous.

Al Horford had a huge Game 1 and a quiet Game 2. The Bucks used Giannis Antetokounmpo on him quite a bit, which is likely to happen again tonight with John Henson doubtful. Horford is a decent play in a vacuum, but I want to pay up at some of the other positions tonight. I’d rather save some cap space by targeting Myles Turner or Marcin Gortat instead. Marcus Morris has averaged 33 minutes and 28 fantasy points per game. He’s viable on FanDuel ($5,700) in all formats if you can’t find your way up to his brother (Markieff Morris). Greg Monroe has only played ten and 16 minutes so far in this series. While he is solid on a per-minute basis, he offers more risk than potential reward.

Notable Injuries

None

Boston Celtics Offense

Points Per Game: 104.0 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.5 (6 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -5.5 (5 of 6)

Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.8 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.9 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (20 of 30)

Elite Plays – Marcus Morris (FD)

Secondary Plays – Marcus Morris (DK), Terry Rozier (GPP), Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum (DK), Al Horford

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks are essentially in a must-win situation tonight. No team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in NBA history. A couple of wins at home and the series would be all tied heading back to Boston for Game 5. Even though this is a terrible matchup on paper, the Celtics are still playing short-handed and the Bucks have fared well offensively so far in this series. They come into tonight’s game as six-point favorites with an implied total of 104.5 points.

John Henson is not expected to play tonight. He has averaged 35 minutes per game in regulation, which opens up a ton of minutes in this rotation. It will be interesting to see if they start Tyler Zeller or Malcolm Brogdon. Milwaukee has been using Giannis Antetokounmpo at the five at time this series, so I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the route they take tonight. If Zeller starts, he immediately becomes viable in all formats. He’s close to the minimum salary on all sites across the industry. Brogdon is an elite play regardless of whether he starts or comes off the bench. He is still under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and should easily push for 30 minutes in this one. Jabari Parker is also sneaky here, as there are essentially 35 minutes that have opened up in the rotation. He played well down the stretch of the regular season, so perhaps some home cooking and an increased role can get him going again.

Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo should both play 40+ minutes in this one. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them both play the entire second half if this game stays close. Middleton is a bit too expensive on FanDuel, but an elite point-per-dollar play on DraftKings ($7,300). Giannis is an elite play in a vacuum, but if I’m paying up for LeBron James and John Wall, then it’s going to be tough to roster Antetokounmpo. I’ll probably end up getting exposure to all three by splitting them between my FanDuel and DraftKings’ lineups. Eric Bledsoe has really struggled with the Celtics’ defense. With point guard being such a deep position, I plan to fade Bledsoe once again.

Notable Injuries

John Henson (Doubtful)

Milwaukee Bucks Offense

Points Per Game: 106.5 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (4 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -2.0 (3 of 6)

Matchup vs. Boston Celtics

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.5 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.7 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (23 of 30)

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Malcolm Brogdon, Khris Middleton (DK), Tyler Zeller (if starting), Jabari Parker (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Khris Middleton (FD), Tyler Zeller (if he comes off the bench), Jabari Parker (Cash)