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NBA Grind Down: Friday, April 22nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-04-23 07:29:50

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM

Cleveland Cavaliers Detroit Pistons
clevelandnba Vegas Total 200.0 detroitnba Vegas Total 200.0
Vegas Sprd -4.0 Vegas Sprd 4.0
Team Proj. 102.0 Team Proj. 98.0
Team Pace 95.50 Team Pace 97.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Tobias Harris Marcus Morris Andre Drummond
Opp. Season 14 6 3 11 11 Opp. Season 17 7 6 2 1
Last 3 Weeks 28 4 2 14 22 Last 3 Weeks 21 5 24 9 11

Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 57-25 — Road: 24-17 — Last 10: 6-4

The Cavaliers were challenged in Game 1, but easily took care of business in Game 2. They are looking to build a commanding 3-0 lead against the Pistons tonight, as the series shifts to Detroit. The Cavaliers are listed as 4-point favorites tonight, so we shouldn’t be too concerned about a potential blowout. Cleveland is projected to score 102 points, which gives them the second highest team total and the highest projected point differential on the board tonight.

Elite Plays

LeBron James
lebron-james-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,400 Salary:$10,700
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.26 FP/Min:1.36
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.6 35.8 0.2 33.0 -2.6
FPPG (FD) 45.0 51.5 6.5 43.6 -1.4
TO-Adj. Usage 27.4 25.8 -1.6 21.9 -5.4

James has been incredibly efficient in this series and so far, he hasn’t really had to take over offensively. Look for him to be a little more aggressive on the offensive end of the floor tonight, now that the series shifts to Detroit. He is the top play on the board tonight and is a very tough fade in cash games. Despite what Stanley Johnson says, the Pistons are not in LeBron’s head.

Kyrie Irving
kyrie-irving-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,700 Salary:$8,000
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.98 FP/Min:1.06
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.5 34.2 2.7 34.0 2.5
FPPG (FD) 30.8 35.9 5.2 35.6 4.9
TO-Adj. Usage 25.7 27.4 1.7 25.6 -0.1

After breaking out with a 51 fantasy point outing in Game 1, Irving played pretty well in Game 2 with 32 fantasy points. He has seen a major boost in minutes in this series and he should see 35-38 tonight against the Pistons. Given the low spread, he is an elite play in all league formats tonight.

Kevin Love
kevin-love-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,300 Salary:$7,700
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.03 FP/Min:1.13
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.5 29.3 -2.2 27.3 -4.2
FPPG (FD) 32.4 33.1 0.7 31.9 -0.5
TO-Adj. Usage 19.9 22.3 2.3 22.9 3.0

Love couldn’t buy a bucket in the first half of Game 2, but still managed to finish with 30 fantasy points. He is now averaging 35 minutes and 37 fantasy points per game in this series. The Pistons don’t really have the size down low to keep him off the blocks. Dollar for dollar, he is the top power forward on the board tonight.

Secondary Plays

J.R. Smith
j.r.-smith-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,700 Salary:$4,700
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.66 FP/Min:0.72
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.7 31.3 0.6 29.9 -0.8
FPPG (FD) 20.3 21.0 0.6 20.6 0.3
TO-Adj. Usage 16.0 15.0 -1.0 15.3 -0.7

Smith caught fire in Game 2, scoring 21 actual points in 34 minutes of action. He is a streaky shooter that doesn’t provide a whole lot of statistics other than scoring. It feels a bit like chasing points tonight, but he offers decent value at shooting guard.

Detroit Pistons

Record: 44-38 — Home: 26-15 — Last 10: 6-4

The Pistons are expected to keep tonight’s game close, which is good news for the fantasy appeal for players on both teams. This is far from a favorable matchup, but we have seen a few players reach value from the Pistons in this series. All five starters are seeing extended minutes in the postseason and I expect that to be the case again tonight. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Tobias Harris, and Marcus Morris are all fine plays, but I see them more as lineup fillers than elite options at their respective positions.

Elite Plays

Reggie Jackson
reggie-jackson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,800 Salary:$6,700
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.00 FP/Min:1.09
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.7 31.1 0.4 31.7 1.0
FPPG (FD) 30.7 31.3 0.5 38.6 7.9
TO-Adj. Usage 25.8 27.9 2.1 30.8 5.1

Jackson has been tremendous in this series, averaging 35 minutes and 32 fantasy points per game. I consider him an elite play again tonight, although we are going to have to make some tough decisions at the position. Jackson, Teague, Thomas, and Irving are all strong plays tonight and a lot of leagues may come down to the choices made at this position.

Secondary Plays

Andre Drummond
andre-drummond-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,600 Salary:$7,500
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.19 FP/Min:1.27
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.9 31.1 -1.8 30.4 -2.5
FPPG (FD) 39.1 34.5 -4.5 31.6 -7.5
TO-Adj. Usage 20.2 18.5 -1.7 17.9 -2.4

Drummond hasn’t had a lot of success against the Cavaliers this season, both in the regular season and in the playoffs. He scored 29 fantasy points in each of the first two games. While that’s certainly not terrible for his price, I prefer Al Horford in cash games. I see Drummond as more of a GPP play tonight at center.

Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics – 8:00 PM

Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics
atlantanba Vegas Total 202.0 bostonnba Vegas Total 202.0
Vegas Sprd 3.0 Vegas Sprd -3.0
Team Proj. 99.5 Team Proj. 102.5
Team Pace 99.40 Team Pace 101.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Marcus Smart Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger
Opp. Season 3 10 23 27 24 Opp. Season 8 19 14 12 22
Last 3 Weeks 17 17 23 27 12 Last 3 Weeks 24 13 13 12 23

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 48-34 — Road: 21-20 — Last 10: 6-4

The Hawks were lucky to walk away from Game 1 with a win and then came out and demolished the Celtics in Game 2. While Avery Bradley isn’t the most gifted offensive player, the Celtics really missed him defensively. The Hawks are listed as 3-point underdogs tonight, as the series shifts to Boston. This should be a great game to target, as the Spurs/Grizzlies game could easily turn into another blowout. The Hawks are projected to score 99.5 points, which gives them the third highest team total and the third highest projected point differential.

Elite Plays

Paul Millsap
paul-millsap-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,500 Salary:$8,400
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.15 FP/Min:1.22
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.7 33.7 1.0 34.7 2.0
FPPG (FD) 37.5 44.0 6.6 44.7 7.3
TO-Adj. Usage 19.9 19.4 -0.5 19.5 -0.4

The Celtics have played a lot of small ball, which has actually hurt Millsap quite a bit. Instead of being matched up against a slower big, he has had to deal with Jae Crowder, who is quick enough to stay with him off the dribble and big enough to body him up down low. While Millsap seems a bit overpriced at this point, he is still an elite play given the lack of options at power forward.

Al Horford
al-horford-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,800 Salary:$7,800
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.00 FP/Min:1.06
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.1 32.3 0.2 32.5 0.4
FPPG (FD) 32.3 32.3 0.0 34.1 1.8
TO-Adj. Usage 17.9 18.4 0.5 18.7 0.7

Horford has been more productive than Millsap in this series and he is still priced at a significant discount. He did hurt his knee late in the second half of Game 2, but he if fully expected to play tonight. The way to attack the Celtics this season has been in the frontcourt, as they don’t defend the paint or rebound the ball particularly well. I slightly prefer Horford over Andre Drummond tonight.

Jeff Teague
jeff-teague-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,000 Salary:$6,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.98 FP/Min:1.08
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.5 30.4 1.9 29.4 0.9
FPPG (FD) 28.0 33.3 5.3 30.2 2.2
TO-Adj. Usage 22.4 25.3 2.9 23.5 1.1

The Celtics were ranked third against point guards during the regular season, but Teague certainly doesn’t seem to care. So far in this series, he is averaging 32 minutes and 33 fantasy points per game. With Dennis Schroder hobbled, Teague could end up playing 35+ minutes tonight in what should be a competitive game throughout.

Kent Bazemore
kent-bazemore-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,500 Salary:$5,600
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.83 FP/Min:0.90
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.8 28.3 0.5 27.6 -0.2
FPPG (FD) 23.1 28.3 5.3 34.6 11.5
TO-Adj. Usage 16.1 16.9 0.8 20.5 4.4

People have been hesitant to play Bazemore so far in the playoffs. I’m not sure if it has more to do with his inconsistency or his injury, but his ownership has been lower than it should have been. He is arguably playing his best basketball of the season, topping the 35 fantasy point mark five times in his last seven games.

Secondary Plays

Kyle Korver
kyle-korver-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,900 Salary:$3,700
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.59 FP/Min:0.64
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.0 30.6 0.6 30.5 0.5
FPPG (FD) 17.7 14.9 -2.8 12.3 -5.4
TO-Adj. Usage 11.4 10.4 -1.0 9.3 -2.1

Remember when I said that targeting J.R. Smith tonight felt like chasing points? Well targeting Korver definitely feels like chasing points. He has been a non-factor for most of the season, but broke out with a big Game 2. He still offers nice value at shooting guard and he does benefit from Avery Bradley being out. With all that said, I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance.

Boston Celtics

Record: 48-34 — Home: 28-13 — Last 10: 6-4

The Celtics are looking to defend their home court, after losing the first two games of the series in Atlanta. They are listed as 3-point favorites tonight with the highest team total on the board. The Celtics also have the second highest projected point differential. Avery Bradley and Kelly Olynyk are both expected to miss tonight’s game, which gives a minutes boost to a number of players.

Elite Plays

Isaiah Thomas
isaiah-thomas-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,900 Salary:$7,900
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.08 FP/Min:1.16
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.2 30.3 -1.9 29.1 -3.1
FPPG (FD) 34.8 31.8 -3.0 32.5 -2.3
TO-Adj. Usage 26.3 28.2 1.9 27.1 0.7

Thomas had one of the worst first halves of his season in Game 2, but he played well in the third and fourth quarters. While Jeff Teague is an excellent defender, Thomas has proved time and time again that he is close to being matchup-proof. Thomas may be my favorite point guard in this slate, although we are splitting hairs with the four options at the top.

Jae Crowder
jae-crowder-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,700 Salary:$6,300
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.83 FP/Min:0.89
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.6 29.3 -2.3 28.0 -3.6
FPPG (FD) 26.3 23.7 -2.6 18.7 -7.6
TO-Adj. Usage 16.1 17.6 1.5 15.7 -0.4

Crowder is always one of my favorite players to target because he can contribute in multiple areas. Look at last game as an example. He only scored two actual points, but he put up 24 fantasy points. With Avery Bradley out, he should see 35+ minutes in a must win game tonight at home.

Evan Turner
evan-turner-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,200 Salary:$6,000
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.84 FP/Min:0.90
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.0 31.9 3.9 29.1 1.1
FPPG (FD) 23.4 25.6 2.2 23.9 0.5
TO-Adj. Usage 16.2 16.6 0.4 17.9 1.7

Turner came off the bench in Game 2, but still played 33 minutes. It doesn’t really matter whether he starts or comes off the bench, he should see close to 35 minutes tonight with Avery Bradley out. Dollar for dollar, he is the top shooting guard on FanDuel tonight.

Secondary Plays

Marcus Smart
marcus-smart-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,900 Salary:$4,900
Position:SG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.77 FP/Min:0.82
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.3 28.8 1.5 29.6 2.3
FPPG (FD) 20.9 21.4 0.4 20.1 -0.8
TO-Adj. Usage 15.5 13.4 -2.0 12.8 -2.6

Smart could not find the bottom of the net in Game 2, but should continue to see a major minutes boost with Avery Bradley out. Look for him to play 30+ minutes tonight at home in what should be a close game throughout. He is a borderline elite play in all league formats.

Amir Johnson
amir-johnson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,700 Salary:$4,800
Position:C Position:PF
FP/Min:0.88 FP/Min:0.92
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 22.8 23.4 0.6 22.0 -0.8
FPPG (FD) 20.0 20.7 0.6 20.8 0.7
TO-Adj. Usage 11.3 10.1 -1.1 10.8 -0.5

Brad Stevens appears to have lost faith in Jared Sullinger. The Celtics have been playing a lot of small ball with Johnson as their center. While he doesn’t have 30 minute upside, he should see minutes in the low to mid-20s in a favorable matchup against the Hawks.

San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies – 9:30 PM

San Antonio Spurs Memphis Grizzlies
sanantonionba Vegas Total 182.5 memphisnba Vegas Total 182.5
Vegas Sprd -12.0 Vegas Sprd 12.0
Team Proj. 97.3 Team Proj. 85.3
Team Pace 95.70 Team Pace 95.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan Proj. Starter Jordan Farmar Vince Carter Matt Barnes Zach Randolph Chris Andersen
Opp. Season 12 5 11 18 5 Opp. Season 4 1 1 4 3
Last 3 Weeks 22 11 5 30 21 Last 3 Weeks 19 2 9 4 3

San Antonio Spurs

Record: 67-15 — Road: 27-14 — Last 10: 6-4

The Spurs made quick work of the Grizzlies in the first two games of the series. While a series doesn’t technically start until a home team loses a game, this series is all but over. The Grizzlies do not have the firepower to keep up with San Antonio. The Spurs are listed as 12-point favorites tonight, which is at least a lot lower than the spread was for the first two games. If the game stays within 10-12 points, the starters could see a few extra minutes tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kawhi Leonard
kawhi-leonard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,700 Salary:$9,000
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.13 FP/Min:1.19
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.1 35.5 2.4 37.5 4.4
FPPG (FD) 37.5 42.4 4.9 42.4 4.9
TO-Adj. Usage 22.3 23.8 1.5 24.8 2.6

Leonard would have been an elite play if the Hawks/Celtics game wasn’t on this slate. That game is littered with viable small forward options, which makes it tough to pay up for Leonard. He certainly has a ton of upside though, and I will be using him in a few GPP lineups.

Tim Duncan
tim-duncan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,300 Salary:$5,100
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.95 FP/Min:1.01
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.2 27.8 2.6 29.2 4.0
FPPG (FD) 24.0 21.8 -2.2 22.6 -1.5
TO-Adj. Usage 14.7 16.1 1.4 19.4 4.7

Duncan just continues to truck along, scoring 23 and 22 fantasy points in the first two games of the series. In order of my favorite center targets, I’d probably rank him second after Al Horford and before Andre Drummond. Look for him to see minutes in the mid-20s again tonight.

Tony Parker
tony-parker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,800 Salary:$4,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.84 FP/Min:0.87
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.5 29.3 1.8 31.3 3.8
FPPG (FD) 23.0 17.2 -5.8 19.7 -3.3
TO-Adj. Usage 18.9 16.8 -2.1 16.6 -2.3

Parker is a nice tournament play tonight. Everyone is going to gravitate toward the four point guard options at the top and Parker will get overlooked. I love the price point and the fact that the spread is a little closer than it was in the first two games of the series. If Parker sees a full complement of minutes, he could easily reach 6x value.

Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 42-40 — Home: 26-15 — Last 10: 1-9

The Grizzlies have not been able to get anything going offensively in this series. A trip back home could help their cause a little bit, but they are still facing the best defensive team in the NBA. The Grizzlies are only projected to score 85.3 points, which is by far the lowest team total on the board tonight. You could maybe take a chance on Zach Randolph, Jordan Farmar, or Xavier Munford in a tournament, but the easiest route is to just avoid the Grizzlies altogether.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious