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NBA Grind Down: Friday, December 30th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-12-31 03:15:50

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Editor’s Note: Kawhi Leonard, Chris Paul, Bradley Beal, Goran Dragic and Avery Bradley have been ruled OUT for tonight.

Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers – 4:00 PM ET

Chicago Bulls Indiana Pacers
chicagonba Vegas Total 201.5 indiananba Vegas Total 201.5
Vegas Spread 4.5 Vegas Spread -4.5
Team Total 98.5 Team Total 103.0
Pace +/- 1.3 Pace +/- -1.8
Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Dwyane Wade Jimmy Butler Taj Gibson Robin Lopez Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Monta Ellis Paul George Thaddeus Young Myles Turner
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 21 18 16 23 16 DvP 7 11 17 21 18
DRPM 0.18 -1.02 -0.30 1.16 2.00 DRPM -0.14 0.42 1.08 1.66 0.36

Chicago Bulls

We have a ten game slate on tap for New Year’s Eve Eve with one early game that starts at 4:00 PM ET. While I understand the want for sites to include the early game in a slate, I’m a bit surprised that FanDuel decided to take the 7:00 and 7:30 games out of the main slate. Basically, FanDuel is offering a three-game early slate and a seven game main slate, while DraftKings is offering a nine-game main slate. The Bulls have lost six of their last ten games and are back to .500 overall. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Pacers, although when these two teams met up last week, they combined for only 185 points. I wouldn’t put too much stock into a sample size of one game, but the Bulls have an implied total of only 98.5 points, which is one of the lowest in the slate.

Rajon Rondo would not be an option if he were in the main slate, but since the only slate that this game is featured in has only three games, you can give him a look. He has scored at least 32 fantasy points in three of his last six games and the Pacers haven’t been particularly effective against point guards this season. Dwyane Wade is expected to play here, but he has been dealing with some migraines and he has missed a few games because of it over the last few seasons. Jimmy Butler broke out of his slump with a monster 64.2 fantasy point outing against the Nets. He is the top target from the Bulls. Taj Gibson minutes and production are both down thanks to the great play of Nikola Mirotic off the bench. Mirotic is far from a cash game lock, but the minutes and shot volume are both up over the last six games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Rajon Rondo $5,900 0.87 30.9 -1.1 26.9 -2.9 21.6% -3.0% 21 0.18
Dwyane Wade $6,900 1.04 30.5 -2.8 31.6 0.9 30.3% 2.8% 18 -1.02
Jimmy Butler $9,000 1.12 36.5 1.7 40.9 1.5 29.0% 0.9% 16 -0.30
Taj Gibson $4,900 0.88 27.8 -2.4 24.4 -6.4 19.2% 1.8% 23 1.16
Robin Lopez $4,700 0.79 28.6 -1.1 22.6 -2.4 16.0% 1.1% 16 2.00
Nikola Mirotic $4,400 0.85 22.9 5.9 19.5 3.9 19.3% -0.8% 23 N/A

Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler

Secondary Plays – Rajon Rondo, Nikola Mirotic

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers have lost four games in a row and would be out of the playoff picture if the regular season ended today. The Bulls got the better of the Pacers in their last meeting, but Indiana is listed as a 4.5-point favorite in this one. While I do like that the Pacers are playing at home, this is not a great matchup for fantasy production. On the season, the Bulls are ranked fifth in points allowed per game, tenth in defensive efficiency, and second in rebounding differential. With an implied total of 103.5 points, I am not too eager to load my lineups with Pacers’ players.

Jeff Teague saw a substantial usage boost with Monta Ellis out, but should go back to his regular role with Ellis back in the lineup. Rajon Rondo is not a great individual defender, but Teague is an easy fade at this price point. Ellis also cuts into the minutes of Glenn Robinson and C.J. Miles and all three are easy fades against the Bulls. Paul George has been ice cold from the three-point line, but his minutes are trending upward. He is worth a look in tournaments in the early-only three-game slate. Thaddeus Young is my favorite play here. He has played at least 35 minutes in five of his last seven games and has topped the 28 fantasy point mark four times in his last five. Myles Turner has nice upside for tournaments, but his range of outcomes is a bit too wide for cash game consideration.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jeff Teague $7,600 1.04 32.1 0.3 33.2 -0.8 26.6% 0.4% 7 -0.14
Monta Ellis $4,200 0.64 30.8 -13.1 19.6 -13.9 17.9% 2.9% 11 0.42
Paul George $7,900 1.00 36.0 3.2 36.1 0.0 26.8% -2.0% 17 1.08
Thaddeus Young $5,300 0.76 31.2 3.5 23.8 5.8 16.3% 1.0% 21 1.66
Myles Turner $6,400 1.02 29.6 1.2 30.1 -5.2 19.5% -0.3% 18 0.36
C.J. Miles $4,000 0.79 22.8 2.9 18.0 -2.1 18.4% 0.9% 17 N/A

Elite Plays – Thaddeus Young

Secondary Plays – Paul George, Myles Turner

Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

Brooklyn Nets Washington Wizards
brooklynnba Vegas Total 221.0 washingtonnba Vegas Total 221.0
Vegas Spread 8.5 Vegas Spread -8.5
Team Total 106.3 Team Total 114.8
Pace +/- 0.2 Pace +/- 5.5
Proj. Starter Isaiah Whitehead Sean Kilpatrick Bojan Bogdanovic Trevor Booker Brook Lopez Proj. Starter John Wall Sheldon McClellan Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 7 17 7 24 12 DvP 29 30 30 28 30
DRPM -0.35 -0.25 1.24 1.45 1.25 DRPM -0.91 -2.38 -2.73 2.28 -0.10

Brooklyn Nets

I’m really disappointed that this game isn’t on the main slate on FanDuel, because I want to play everybody from this game. The Nets have lost eight of their last ten games and now have a better record than only one other team in the NBA (hint: it rhymes with the Blixers). They have been much more competitive with Jeremy Lin in the lineup and when they have played at home. They will be without both of those tonight against the Wizards, but the over/under for the game is set at 221 points. The Wizards are always one of the best teams to target players against, as they are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential.

When Jeremy Lin is not on the floor, Sean Kilpatrick has a usage rate of 28.2% and a FP/min of 0.93. These are significant boosts over his season averages and that doesn’t even factor in the minute boost that he sees. Kilpatrick should see 30+ minutes in a game full of fantasy goodness. He is an elite play in all formats, especially on a site like FanDuel that requires you to roster two shooting guards. Bojan Bogdanovic could see big minutes if Joe Harris is unable to suit up and his usage should be high as well. He always seems to get overlooked, which puts him on my radar for tournaments. Marcin Gortat is an above-average low post defender, but Brook Lopez has scored 39.7 and 42.7 fantasy points in their last two meetings. I seem to say this every time the Nets are on the schedule, but Lopez is too cheap on DraftKings.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Whitehead $3,500 $3,400 0.63 22.5 -5.1 14.2 0.5 18.4% 4.0% 7 -0.35
Sean Kilpatrick $5,500 $5,900 0.88 27.9 0.9 24.4 5.8 25.0% -1.8% 17 -1.08
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,200 $4,300 0.74 27.1 -2.5 20.1 -3.3 21.0% -1.7% 7 1.24
Trevor Booker $5,500 $5,400 0.94 27.8 -3.8 26.2 -2.3 16.7% -2.2% 24 1.45
Brook Lopez $7,800 $6,800 1.15 29.0 0.8 33.5 -0.1 28.2% -2.4% 12 1.25
Joe Harris $3,500 $3,200 0.65 23.5 -9.4 15.2 -11.7 16.4% -4.5% 17 N/A
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson $4,100 $3,900 0.82 22.4 0.1 18.3 -2.6 18.0% 1.4% 7 N/A

Elite Plays – Sean Kilpatrick, Brook Lopez (DK)

Secondary Plays – Brook Lopez (FD), Bojan Bogdanovic

Washington Wizards

The Wizards have won seven of their last ten games and received some great news yesterday. Bradley Beal turned his ankle and was unable to return to Wednesday’s game, but the MRI came back negative. Head coach Scott Brooks said that Beal would be a game-time decision for this game, but it’s hard to see the Wizards putting him in danger of missing extended time by trotting him out there before he is fully healthy. In terms of their matchup, Brooklyn is basically the Coors Field of basketball. If you don’t play baseball, then the Nets are the equivalent of playing a football game in the Superdome. If you don’t play baseball or football, then I guess I’ll just say that the matchup is pristine. Brooklyn is ranked first in pace of play and dead last in points allowed per game. The Wizards have an implied total of 114.8 points, which is 9.5 points above their season average.

For our purposes, let’s assume that Bradley Beal is going to sit out tonight. If that’s the case, you can make a strong argument for all five starters. Earlier in the season when Markieff Morris was out, we saw all five starters reach value in the same game. We could end up seeing that again given how many minutes their starters play and how great the matchup is. If John Wall was playing in NBA Jam, he would be on fire and dunking from half-court. He has scored at least 35 fantasy points in 11 straight games, topping the 47 point mark six times. He also sees a 9.7% usage boost when Beal is off the floor. I don’t care that he is $10,000, Wall is one of my favorite plays in the slate. Otto Porter should play minutes in the upper-30s and we love targeting him in pace-up matchups. Kelly Oubre is basically a free square if Beal is out, as he would step into the starting lineup and play 30+ minutes. Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat aren’t as strong of plays as the other three starters, but the Nets are ranked 26th in rebounding differential.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $10,000 $10,300 1.24 36.4 1.2 45.3 2.9 35.0% -0.7% 29 -0.91
Sheldon McClellan $3,500 $3,400 0.59 12.7 2.4 7.5 -1.1 14.6% -4.7% 30 -2.38
Otto Porter $5,700 $6,100 0.83 33.7 -0.7 27.8 3.8 15.3% 3.7% 30 -2.73
Markieff Morris $5,100 $5,200 0.77 31.5 -1.5 24.1 -3.9 20.0% 0.3% 28 2.28
Marcin Gortat $6,200 $6,300 0.82 35.8 0.4 29.4 -2.4 13.6% -2.4% 30 -0.10
Kelly Oubre $3,500 $4,000 0.65 18.7 -1.2 12.2 -3.4 14.4% -0.8% 30 N/A

Elite Plays – John Wall, Otto Porter, Kelly Oubre

Secondary Plays – Markieff Morris, Marcin Gortat

Miami Heat at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET

Miami Heat Boston Celtics
miaminba Vegas Total 203.5 bostonnba Vegas Total 203.5
Vegas Spread 9.5 Vegas Spread -9.5
Team Total 97.0 Team Total 106.5
Pace +/- -0.2 Pace +/- -1.9
Proj. Starter Josh Richardson Rodney McGruder Justise Winslow Luke Babbitt Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 16 5 23 20 23 DvP 4 7 10 12 20
DRPM -3.15 -2.31 1.26 1.07 2.10 DRPM -0.43 -0.94 0.55 1.04 1.16

Miami Heat

The Heat didn’t put up much of a fight against the Hornets last night and after the game they said that they shouldn’t have brought Goran Dragic back so early. His back tightened up on him and they mentioned that he was basically playing at 50%. There has yet to be an official update on his status for tonight’s game, but I’d say that there is probably a 95% chance that he sits this game out. If that’s the case, Josh Richardson would slide over and start at point guard, while Rodney McGruder would enter the lineup as the starting shooting guard. The Heat draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Celtics, who are ranked right around the league average in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency this season.

For our purposes, let’s assume that Goran Dragic is out tonight. If we use our fancy CourtIQ tool, we can see that Josh Richardson gets a 2.9% usage bump and a FP/min bump of 0.08 with Dragic off the floor. Add in a minutes boost and we have ourselves an elite value play. Tyler Johnson will also see a significant boost off the bench, as he could play upwards of 35 minutes in a favorable matchup against the Celtics. Point guard is always a stacked position, but I will have a few Johnson shares in tournaments. The Celtics have two excellent wing defenders in Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder, so I’m not exactly chomping at the bit to roster Rodney McGruder or Justise Winslow. Hassan Whiteside has burned a lot of people with two bad outings in a row, but makes a lot of sense as a low-owned tournament play tonight. The Celtics are ranked 23rd against centers and 27th in rebounding differential this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Josh Richardson $4,400 $5,000 0.64 30.4 4.1 19.4 6.5 19.2% 0.0% 16 -3.15
Rodney McGruder $3,500 $3,000 0.52 25.5 -0.5 13.3 -5.3 12.0% -6.3% 5 -2.31
Justise Winslow $5,100 $5,600 0.68 35.0 -1.2 23.9 -5.0 20.6% -0.2% 23 1.26
Luke Babbitt $3,500 $3,000 0.52 14.8 2.0 7.7 4.5 13.2% -1.5% 20 1.07
Hassan Whiteside $9,200 $8,600 1.18 33.9 -0.1 40.1 -13.2 22.0% -4.4% 23 2.10
James Johnson $5,200 $5,200 0.89 24.2 -2.5 21.5 0.8 21.8% 10.8% 20 N/A
Tyler Johnson $5,800 $5,400 0.85 31.0 -1.8 26.3 1.0 21.6% 2.5% 16 N/A

Elite Plays – Josh Richardson, Tyler Johnson (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Tyler Johnson (Cash), Justise Winslow, Hassan Whiteside (GPP)

Boston Celtics

The Celtics have won six of their last ten games and are currently in third place in the East. The problem that Boston has had is their inability to win big games. They are 0-9 against CLE, TOR, GSW, HOU, OKC, and SAS. The good news is that they face a Heat team that will likely be without their starting point guard tonight. The Celtics are listed as 9.5-point favorites with an implied total of 106.5 points, which is the seventh highest in the slate and slightly above their season average. While there is some concern of a potential blowout here, the Celtics are coming off of a tough loss against the Cavaliers and could be in for a bit of a letdown tonight.

Isaiah Thomas is averaging 39.2 fantasy points on the season with an elite true usage rate of 34.7%. He seems to top 30 fantasy points every time he takes the floor and there is no reason to think that he will slow down tonight. His price on DraftKings ($7,700) is about $500 too cheap, which puts him in the elite play range at point guard. He is an easier fade on FanDuel ($8,400), but I will still have some exposure in tournaments. The Heat have two good wing defenders in Rodney McGruder and Justise Winslow. Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder are both decent plays, but neither makes the cut as an elite option at his respective position. Dollar for dollar, I actually prefer Marcus Smart over both Bradley and Crowder. He has played at least 28 minutes in each of his last three games. Hassan Whiteside is a good defender individually, but centers have had success against Miami this season. Al Horford is an intriguing play on DraftKings at a price of only $6,700.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $8,400 $7,700 1.18 33.3 0.0 39.2 -1.3 34.7% -1.4% 4 -0.43
Avery Bradley $6,700 $6,200 0.89 34.9 -2.8 31.2 1.7 22.4% 3.8% 7 -0.94
Jae Crowder $5,300 $5,200 0.77 31.5 1.8 24.3 0.8 16.4% -1.5% 10 0.55
Amir Johnson $4,100 $4,000 0.80 20.0 1.2 16.0 2.0 14.5% -1.2% 12 1.04
Al Horford $7,700 $6,700 1.04 32.9 -0.2 34.3 -7.5 22.9% -1.7% 20 1.16
Marcus Smart $4,900 $4,600 0.75 29.7 -0.3 22.4 4.4 20.1% -0.9% 4 N/A

Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas (DK), Marcus Smart

Secondary Plays – Isaiah Thomas (FD), Jae Crowder, Avery Bradley, Al Horford (DK)

Milwaukee Bucks at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks Minnesota Timberwolves
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 207.5 minnesotanba Vegas Total 207.5
Vegas Spread 1.0 Vegas Spread -1.0
Team Total 103.3 Team Total 104.3
Pace +/- -1.5 Pace +/- -0.4
Proj. Starter Giannis Antetokounmpo Malcolm Brogdon Tony Snell Jabari Parker John Henson Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 22 8 6 6 18 DvP 10 13 28 19 11
DRPM 0.76 -2.92 -2.26 2.81 -1.80 DRPM 3.87 -0.14 -0.65 -1.62 1.33

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks have lost six of their last ten games, but would squeeze into the playoffs as the eighth seed if the regular season ended today. They draw a favorable matchup against another young team tonight in the Wolves. On the season, Minnesota is ranked 19th in points allowed per game and 26th in defensive efficiency. The Bucks come into this game as one point underdogs with the over/under set at 207.5 points. Close, high scoring games are always what we look for in DFS and we should get one tonight between the Bucks and Wolves.

While it didn’t end up hurting me in Wednesday’s slate, I shouldn’t have been so quick to automatically write off Giannis Antetokounmpo because of a matchup against the Pistons. He has now scored at least 44 fantasy points in nine straight games. Let me say that again, he has scored at least 44 fantasy points in nine straight games. There is no reason why he should be on your radar tonight against the Wolves, especially now that Matthew Dellavedova has been ruled out. Malcolm Brogdon is expected to start in Dellavedova’s absence. While his usage rate will go down playing with the starters, he should see 30+ minutes in a favorable matchup against the Wolves. Brogdon is on my radar as an elite value play in all formats. Jabari Parker is the other Bucks’ player on my radar tonight, although Gorgui Dieng is by far the Wolves’ best individual defender. With nine games in this slate, I see Parker more as a GPP play tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Giannis Antetokounmpo $10,300 $9,700 1.37 34.9 0.3 47.7 3.5 29.8% 0.3% 22 0.76
Malcolm Brogdon $3,900 $3,900 0.74 22.0 4.9 16.3 4.6 19.6% -5.5% 8 -2.92
Tony Snell $3,800 $3,600 0.55 29.3 -1.2 16.2 6.2 13.0% 1.6% 6 -2.26
Jabari Parker $7,100 $7,200 0.97 33.1 2.2 32.2 8.1 25.8% -1.7% 6 2.81
John Henson $4,200 $3,900 0.91 20.6 0.5 18.7 -5.9 16.6% -2.2% 18 -1.80

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Malcolm Brogdon

Secondary Plays – Jabari Parker

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves have lost six of their last ten games and are playing their best basketball of the season. There is something wrong with that picture. This is a team that we all had high hopes for, but they are a veteran piece or two away from being a playoff contender in the West. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Bucks, who are ranked tenth in points allowed per game and eighth in defensive efficiency. The Wolves come into the game with an implied total of 104.3 points, which is slightly higher than their season average. I read a sad blurb about Nikola Pekovic yesterday. It sounds like he is considering a retirement from basketball. He takes me back to my DraftStreet days when he first made a name for himself in Minnesota.

Ricky Rubio has played at least 33 minutes in six of his last eight games and has topped the 30 fantasy point mark six times during that stretch. With his minutes up, he has been a great cash game option. This could be a nice time to hop off of Rubio though, as his price is up and he draws a difficult matchup against the Bucks. This game sets up well for Zach LaVine, as Matthew Dellavedova will be on Rubio and Giannis Antetokounmpo will be on Andrew Wiggins. LaVine has been very inconsistent, but this seems like a perfect spot for him to have a big outing. Gorgui Dieng never plays well when I’m on him, so I’ll save you all the trouble and will fade him tonight. Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 8.9 more fantasy points at home than he does on the road. He is a borderline elite play in all formats against a susceptible Bucks’ frontcourt.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Ricky Rubio $6,100 $5,900 0.79 31.4 -1.9 24.9 6.3 17.6% 1.8% 10 3.87
Zach LaVine $6,500 $6,300 0.78 37.6 -3.5 29.3 -5.4 23.3% 0.3% 13 -0.44
Andrew Wiggins $6,400 $6,500 0.83 36.6 -3.0 30.4 3.1 27.3% -0.3% 28 -0.65
Gorgui Dieng $5,600 $5,500 0.79 32.7 1.8 25.8 -0.2 15.4% 0.6% 19 -1.62
Karl-Anthony Towns $9,100 $8,900 1.17 35.2 -2.6 41.2 0.0 27.6% -2.2% 11 1.33

Elite Plays – Zach LaVine, Karl-Anthony Towns

Secondary Plays – Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins

Los Angeles Clippers at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Clippers Houston Rockets
laclippersnba Vegas Total 215.0 houstonnba Vegas Total 215.0
Vegas Spread 9.0 Vegas Spread -9.0
Team Total 103.0 Team Total 112.0
Pace +/- 1.9 Pace +/- -0.2
Proj. Starter Austin Rivers J.J. Redick Wesley Johnson Luc Richard Mbah a Moute DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Nene Hilario
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 6 24 23 21 17 DvP 5 3 19 8 7
DRPM 1.30 -1.07 2.03 -0.76 1.94 DRPM -1.91 -1.27 1.95 2.75 2.75

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers have been banged up over the last few weeks and they will be short-handed again tonight. While J.J. Redick is expected to make his return to the lineup, Los Angeles will be without their two superstars in Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. With the Paul news just breaking the game went from having a five point spread and a total of 220 to having a nine point spread and a total of 215. This is still an exploitable matchup for fantasy production though, as the Rockets are ranked 22nd in points allowed per game and 18th in defensive efficiency this season. The Clippers’ implied total of 103 points may not seem high, but Griffin and Paul account for 39.9 of the Clippers’ 108.4 points per game this season.

With Chris Paul out, Austin Rivers will likely draw another start at point guard. A lot of people will be quick to hop on him tonight, but I prefer T.J. McConnell against the Nuggets if I had to choose between the two. Rivers should see around 30 minutes of action here, but that is far from being a guarantee. Raymond Felton is a capable backup and we know that Jamal Crawford can play the point as well. The main reason why I don’t love Rivers is his matchup. Patrick Beverley is one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA. I will have some exposure to both Rivers and Crawford, but probably less than the field. DeAndre Jordan doesn’t see much of a boost at all with Paul out, mainly because most of his baskets come on alley-oops from CP3. Jordan is an easy fade in a game that could turn into a blowout.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Austin Rivers $4,300 $5,000 0.64 24.7 8.5 15.8 7.5 19.1% 5.3% 6 1.30
J.J. Redick $4,400 $5,200 0.71 26.9 -0.8 19.2 10.7 21.8% 6.6% 24 -1.07
Wesley Johnson $3,500 $3,000 0.72 13.5 7.4 9.8 6.3 13.1% -0.4% 23 2.03
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute $3,500 $3,600 0.55 23.6 3.2 12.9 0.3 10.9% 0.4% 21 -0.76
DeAndre Jordan $7,200 $7,300 1.00 31.7 1.7 31.6 1.9 14.2% 0.0% 17 1.94
Jamal Crawford $4,500 $4,900 0.69 25.9 6.0 17.9 6.7 23.5% 6.5% 24 N/A
Raymond Felton $3,800 $4,000 0.64 19.1 11.0 12.3 9.0 16.7% 0.1% 6 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Austin Rivers, Jamal Crawford

Houston Rockets

The Rockets have really played well this season. They currently sport a 24-9 record and they have the second best offense in basketball. Their matchup against the Clippers looks tough on paper, but Los Angeles will be without their two superstars, so we can basically throw their defensive statistics out the window. The only statistic that matters here is the Rockets’ implied total of 113.3 points, which is the third highest in the slate and nearly identical to their season average. James Harden typically deserves consideration as the top overall play in the slate, but Los Angeles loves to throw double teams at him and force other players to beat them. Harden has failed to score more than 49 fantasy points in each of his last eight meetings against the Clippers. Granted, Chris Paul and Blake Griffin played in most of those games, but it’s still worth noting. I will have some exposure to Harden tonight, but I plan to be under-weight compared to the field. Assuming the Clippers throw the kitchen sink at Harden, it should open the door for the rest of the Rockets to see increased usage in this offense. Ryan Anderson, Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon, and Montrezl Harrell are all on my radar in tournaments.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Patrick Beverley $5,800 $5,500 0.84 30.6 -0.8 25.6 0.5 16.1% 3.4% 5 -1.91
James Harden $11,100 $11,700 1.45 36.3 -4.2 52.6 -4.6 38.3% 3.9% 3 -1.27
Trevor Ariza $5,500 $5,300 0.76 33.2 -2.6 25.4 -1.6 15.1% -4.1% 19 1.95
Ryan Anderson $5,700 $5,600 0.73 30.7 -1.1 22.4 8.1 17.6% 3.6% 8 2.75
Nene Hilario $3,600 $3,700 0.83 17.0 0.1 14.2 1.5 18.8% -1.9% 7 2.75
Eric Gordon $5,500 $5,700 0.84 30.5 -1.4 25.5 0.6 23.5% 0.8% 3 N/A
Montrezl Harrell $4,100 $5,000 0.89 15.9 9.5 14.2 6.1 18.3% -1.9% 7 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – James Harden, Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, Montrezl Harrell

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious