NBA Grind Down: Friday, February 21st - Page 2

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-02-21 20:33:08

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Denver at Chicago

• Vegas Line – Chicago -7, 190 Over/Under
• Denver Proj. Starters – Foye-Fournier-Chandler-Faried-Hickson
• Chicago Proj. Starters – Augustin-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah

Denver

The Nuggets are not wasting any time getting a look at their new acquisition. With Ty Lawson out for tonight’s game, the Nuggets will start Aaron Brooks at PG tonight against the Bulls. This makes him a very interesting play, but with Evan Fournier and Randy Foye both capable of running the point, you have to think Brooks will be on a short leash if he struggles. For that reason, I will only have a little exposure to him tonight and it will only be in GPP’s.

The rest of the Nuggets lineup has a tough matchup. The Bulls are one of the slowest paced teams in the league, averaging only 92 possessions per game. The Bulls are also ranked in the top 10 against every position in terms of fantasy points allowed.

Chicago

The Bulls on the other hand have a very nice matchup tonight. When a slow paced team and a fast paced team face off, the result typically ends up being somewhere in the middle which means the Bulls should see a few extra possessions that their season average. Jimmy Butler has really been playing well and makes a decent cash game play on sites that haven’t adjusted his salary to his recent production. Kirk Hinrich has topped 20 FP’s in 5 straight and is worth a look as well. I’ll probably avoid the two PF’s here though, while it’s a great matchup, they really hurt each other’s fantasy value.

• Joakim Noah – Noah, Drummond, or Jefferson? This is going to be the question that DFS players are going to be asking themselves all day. You can make an argument for any of them. For me, I think they are all very close so I recommend taking the cheapest of the three on the site that you are playing on. Noah could post one of his classic triple-double type of lines against this weak interior defense of the Bulls.

L.A.Clippers at Memphis

• Vegas Line – L.A.Clippers -2, 196.5 Over/Under
• L.A.Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Crawford-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
• Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol

L.A.Clippers

When I see the Grizzlies on the schedule, I typically like to run and hide from all fantasy options that have to face this vaunted defense. The Grizzlies are the slowest paced team in the league and rarely get caught up in the fast pace tempo that other teams try to establish. The Grizzlies are great at controlling the pace and making you play the kind of basketball that they want to play. Jamal Crawford, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan are all over-priced for their matchup tonight.

• Chris Paul – Paul is the one Clippers’ player that I will have some exposure to tonight. He is only $8,600 tonight on FD which means he has to score around 43 FP’s to cover his value. I think that is very doable even in a tough matchup. Paul is averaging 16/10/5/1/1 against the Grizzlies this season which is right around the numbers he will need to cover value.

Memphis

The Grizzlies take on a fast-paced Clippers team that is allowing 101 PPG to their opponents. While that would usually come into play here, I really expect the Grizzlies to slow the pace down and play their usual style of basketball. If that’s the case, it’s hard to really give them a fantasy boost even in a solid matchup. The two players that I like here are Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, but there are so many other options tonight that I haven’t found either of them in any of my cash games.

San Antonio at Phoenix

• Vegas Line – San Antonio -1, 209 Over/Under
• San Antonio Proj. Starters – Mills-Green-Belinelli-Duncan-Splitter
• Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Green-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee

San Antonio

The Spurs will be without Tony Parker again tonight which means Cory Joseph will get another start at PG and Patty Mills will continue to make a great value play off the bench. Mills has posted at least 39 fantasy points in 3 of his last 5 games and should be treated as a high upside play tonight. The good news for the Spurs is that they will likely have both Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard back.

This game has one of the higher totals of the night, but I’m having a hard time recommending any of the Spurs not named Tim Duncan. Mills price has gone up, Leonard/Green/Ginobili/Belinelli will all be splitting time at the wing positions, and Boris Diaw is too inconsistent for my liking.

• Tim Duncan – Duncan is having an incredible year considering his age. Just look at some of the other players that have been in the league as long as he has and none of them are having anywhere close to the type of season that he is having. Duncan should be well rested heading into tonight’s game after getting Wednesday off to rest. I like his matchup against Frye and Morris.

Phoenix

The Suns are projected to score 105 points tonight against the Spurs. This is one of the higher totals of the night. Looking at the DvP rankings, the Spurs have really only struggled to defend the PG position this season. With Kawhi expected to be back, it’s going to be tough for the wing players of P.J. Tucker and Gerald Green to get going in this one. The bigs of the Suns is also a tricky situation. I think Markieff Morris offers some value as a contrarian play, but that’s about it.

• Goran Dragic – Dragic has a solid matchup tonight against Joseph and Mills. Dragic has a very high usage rate with Bledsoe out of the lineup and should be able to continue his strong play in this one. The only downside with Dragic is that his price is really starting to get expensive.

Utah at Portland

• Vegas Line – Portland -9, 202 Over/Under
• Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hayward-Jefferson-Williams-Favors
• Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Robinson-Lopez

Utah

The Jazz will be without Derrick Favors tonight as they take on the Blazers who will also be without their best big man. Favors’ absence gives huge fantasy boost to Enes Kanter and a small boost to both Marvin Williams and Jeremy Evans. This game does have the potential to turn into a blowout though. The Jazz have really struggled on the road this season and the Blazers could easily run away with tonight’s game. Trey Burke has a solid matchup, but his numbers have dipped on the road.

• Enes Kanter – Kanter is very cheap tonight and coming off of a very nice game the other night. He’s probably your best option if you want to punt the Center position. The Blazers have been pretty average at defending Centers this season and Kanter should see big minutes as the starter.

Portland

The Blazers will be without LaMarcus Aldridge again tonight. In their last game, Dorell Wright started at PF and Thomas Robinson got the majority of the minutes off the bench. Both make decent punt options tonight, but I think Aldridge’s absence boosts Robin Lopez and Damian Lillard the most. The Jazz are giving up over 100 points per game this season and the Blazers should have no problem topping that mark tonight. One player to keep your eye on is Nicolas Batum. Even though he struggled the other night, he is primed for a nice bounce back game.

• Damian Lillard – Lillard has a nice matchup against Burke and the Jazz who are ranked 19th in terms of fantasy points allowed to PG’s this season. He will also be responsible for more of the offense with Aldridge out. There are a lot of great PG options today, but don’t forget about Lillard.

• Robin Lopez – Lopez may be a bit too pricey on DS tonight, but he’s very much in play on FD & DK. Lopez put up 32 FP’s the other night without Aldridge in the lineup and should be able to post similar numbers tonight against the Jazz.

Boston at L.A.Lakers

• Vegas Line – LA Lakers -1, 205 Over/Under
• Boston Proj. Starters – Rondo-Green-Wallace-Sullinger-Bass
• L.A.Lakers Proj. Starters – Marshall-Meeks-Johnson-Hill-Kaman

Boston

I’m a bit surprised to see the Lakers favored tonight, but this game should be close and high scoring regardless of who is favored. The Lakers have the second worst defense in the NBA. They are giving up an average of 106 points per game and are ranked 26th or worse against all five positions in terms of fantasy points allowed.Avery Bradley is still out for the Celtics, so look for Gerald Wallace to get another start at SG. Jeff Green makes a great upside play tonight, but he’s probably best served as a GPP play. He has a tendency to let Grinders down in favorable situations.

• Rajon Rondo – Now that the trade deadline has passed, you can safely take Rondo in all leagues. He’s one of my top overall plays on the board tonight. Rondo has averaged over 35 FP’s per game over his last 5 games and has a terrific matchup against the Lakers who have all but given up on the season. This should be a very fast-paced game and Rondo should be able to make his presence felt in all areas of the game. Look for Rondo to post close to a triple-double tonight against Marshall, Farmar, and company.

• Jared Sullinger – Sully has topped 35 FP’s in 5 of his last 8 games and has a great chance to reach that mark again tonight. The Lakers are not a good rebounding team and have really struggled to contain talented bigs.

L.A.Lakers

The final team of the night is the Lakers. They are hoping to have Pau Gasol back for tonight’s game, he is currently listed as probable, but there is always the risk of a late scratch so make sure to avoid Pau on sites that don’t allow the late swap. The Lakers matchup against the Celtics is a pretty decent one and they are playing at home where they have been able to remain competitive. Kendall Marshall and Jordan Farmar both make decent value plays, but I’m not sure I will be using any of my roster spots on either of them.

• Wesley Johnson – The Lakers’ injuries just keep piling up and now that Steve Blake is gone, that just means more minutes for the healthy bodies. Johnson will likely get close to 40 minutes again tonight against the Celtics and is very affordable across the board.