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NBA Grind Down: Friday, January 29th - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-01-29 22:10:27

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Brooklyn Nets at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM

Brooklyn Nets Dallas Mavericks
brooklynnba Vegas Total 199.0 dallasnba Vegas Total 199.0
Vegas Sprd 9.0 Vegas Sprd -9.0
Team Proj. 95.0 Team Proj. 104.0
Team Pace 96.80 Team Pace 96.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Donald Sloan Wayne Ellington Joe Johnson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez Proj. Starter Deron Williams Wesley Matthews Chandler Parsons Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia
Opp. Season 14 9 11 25 6 Opp. Season 27 24 22 17 26
Last 3 Weeks 13 20 23 15 12 Last 3 Weeks 28 14 21 25 8

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 12-34 — Road: 4-16 — Last 10: 2-8

The Nets just seem to be counting down the days until the end of the season. Unfortunately for them, that is still a long ways away. They have lost eight of their last ten games and have a spotty 4-16 record on the road. They are only projected to score 95 points tonight against the Mavericks, which is the third lowest team total on the board.

The Mavericks are always one of those teams that we don’t mind targeting players against, but that we don’t need to go out of our way to target players against either. On the season, they are ranked 17th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Brook Lopez, Thaddeus Young, and Donald Sloan would be decent targets in a small slate, but there are better options at each of their respective positions tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Dallas Mavericks

Record: 26-22 — Home: 13-8 — Last 10: 4-6

The Mavericks haven’t been playing their best basketball recently, but they have a good chance to snap out of their funk tonight against the Nets. The Mavericks are listed as 9-point favorites at home with their team total set at 104 points. Is it just me, or are the Mavericks just not sexy fantasy picks? No offense, Zaza.

The Nets have really struggled defensively this season, ranking 21st or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. However, we typically like to target bad defenses when they are accompanied with a good offense (i.e. Rockets, Kings). The Mavericks are large favorites here and given their deep rotation, this is an easy game to avoid altogether.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Chandler Parsons

The one Mavericks’ player that should be on our radar is Parsons. He has been tremendous over his last five games, averaging 38.9 fantasy points in 37.6 minutes per contest. Parsons also draws a favorable matchup against Nets, who are ranked 22nd against small forwards this season.

FD — $6,600 — SF
DK — $6,700 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.5 | Last Five Games: 19.7
Min/Game — Season: 27.3 | Last Five Games: 37.6
FP/Game — Season: 21.3 | Last Five Games: 38.9

Minnesota Timberwolves at Utah Jazz – 9:00 PM

Minnesota Timberwolves Utah Jazz
minnesotanba Vegas Total 195.5 utahnba Vegas Total 195.5
Vegas Sprd 8.0 Vegas Sprd -8.0
Team Proj. 93.8 Team Proj. 101.8
Team Pace 97.20 Team Pace 93.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Andrew Wiggins Tayshaun Prince Karl-Anthony Towns Nikola Pekovic Proj. Starter Raul Neto Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert
Opp. Season 7 3 6 1 2 Opp. Season 23 15 21 9 11
Last 3 Weeks 7 3 6 3 1 Last 3 Weeks 18 19 27 11 2

Minnesota Timberwolves

Record: 14-33 — Road: 7-15 — Last 10: 2-8

The Wolves have lost eight of their last ten games and draw one of the toughest matchups in daily fantasy basketball. Tonight they head to Utah to take on the Jazz in what will be a pace-down game for the Wolves. Minnesota is only projected to score 93.8 points, which is the lowest team total on the board.

With Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors back in the lineup, the Jazz are once again a team that we want to avoid targeting players against. On the season, they are ranked fifth in points allowed per game and second in fantasy points allowed per game. The good news is that the Wolves are expected to be without Kevin Garnett and Kevin Martin, which opens the door for two value plays that have been playing well.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Gorgui Dieng

Dieng is coming off of one of his best outings of the season, scoring 36 fantasy points in his spot start the other night against the Thunder. Nikola Pekovic was active in that game, so there is a good chance that Dieng could draw another start tonight with Kevin Garnett out.

FD — $5,000 — C
DK — $4,500 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 12.8 | Last Five Games: 15.6
Min/Game — Season: 23.8 | Last Five Games: 21.3
FP/Game — Season: 20.5 | Last Five Games: 23.8

Zach LaVine

LaVine is coming off of two huge fantasy outings against the Cavaliers and Thunder, scoring 36 and 41 fantasy points. While I don’t expect a repeat performance against a tough Jazz defense, he does see a nice boost in minutes with Kevin Martin out.

FD — $4,600 — SG
DK — $4,900 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.6 | Last Five Games: 19.3
Min/Game — Season: 23.3 | Last Five Games: 22.8
FP/Game — Season: 20.6 | Last Five Games: 23.7

Utah Jazz

Record: 20-25 — Home: 13-10 — Last 10: 5-5

Even as a Jazz fan, I’m never too excited to see them on the schedule. They slow the pace of the game down and play excellent half-court defense. The Jazz draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Wolves at home. Utah is projected to score 101.8 points, which is 4.2 points higher than their season average.

The Wolves have not fared well defensively this season, ranking 22nd in points allowed per game and 21st in defensive efficiency. It will be interesting to see when the Jazz move Derrick Favors back into the starting lineup. He should be avoided for fantasy purposes, as he has only played 20 and 21 minutes in his first two games back from injury.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Gordon Hayward

Hayward has been one of the top small forwards over the last few weeks and no one seems to have noticed. Over his last five games, he is averaging 41.9 fantasy points in 38.4 minutes per contest. However, if I am paying up for a small forward tonight, I’d much rather spend a bit more and take Kevin Durant against the Rockets.

FD — $8,300 — SF
DK — $7,500 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.3 | Last Five Games: 25.0
Min/Game — Season: 35.5 | Last Five Games: 38.4
FP/Game — Season: 31.8 | Last Five Games: 41.9

Rudy Gobert

Gobert has been productive over his last five games, averaging 32.9 fantasy points per contest. While a healthy Derrick Favors will eventually cut into his production, the Jazz are playing it safe with Favors. Gobert should see minutes in the mid-30s tonight against the Wolves.

FD — $7,100 — C
DK — $6,700 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 10.6 | Last Five Games: 11.9
Min/Game — Season: 32.7 | Last Five Games: 36.0
FP/Game — Season: 29.2 | Last Five Games: 32.9

Charlotte Hornets at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:00 PM

Charlotte Hornets Portland Trail Blazers
charlottenba Vegas Total 206.0 portlandnba Vegas Total 206.0
Vegas Sprd 6.5 Vegas Sprd -6.5
Team Proj. 99.8 Team Proj. 106.3
Team Pace 97.70 Team Pace 97.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum P.J. Hairston Marvin Williams Spencer Hawes Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Noah Vonleh Mason Plumlee
Opp. Season 24 16 7 22 21 Opp. Season 19 17 19 27 12
Last 3 Weeks 27 21 9 26 5 Last 3 Weeks 23 6 29 18 6

Charlotte Hornets

Record: 22-24 — Road: 6-16 — Last 10: 5-5

The Hornets have been short-handed, but they have still managed to win five of their last ten games. Their biggest struggle this season has been on the road, where they are only 6-16. They draw a decent matchup tonight against the Blazers in what should be a close, high-scoring game. The Hornets are projected to score 99.8 points, which is slightly lower than their season average.

The Blazers have been better defensively at home, but they are still a below-average defense. On the season, they are ranked 19th in points allowed per game and 23rd in defensive efficiency. Cody Zeller has already been ruled out of tonight’s game and it sounds like Jeremy Lin will join him on the bench. Jeremy Lamb is listed as questionable.

Elite Plays

Spencer Hawes

Women love the man-bun,
Spencer Hawes rocks a mean one.
Against the Jazz, he was rotten,
As a value play, he’ll be forgotten.

Need I say more? As a starter this season, he is averaging 11.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.5 blocks/steals. I’m hoping that after his down game against the Jazz, he won’t draw too much attention his way tonight. I’m back on the Hawes bandwagon though, as the Blazers are ranked 21st against centers.

FD — $4,000 — C
DK — $4,800 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.2 | Last Five Games: 13.8
Min/Game — Season: 18.3 | Last Five Games: 30.0
FP/Game — Season: 14.4 | Last Five Games: 24.2

Secondary Plays

Kemba Walker

I prefer to target Walker when he is 1. playing at home and 2. playing without Nicolas Batum. Unfortunately, he has neither of those in his favor tonight. The good news is that he draws a favorable matchup against the Blazers. I won’t be using Walker in cash games, but he does make a strong tournament play. If you do roll with Walker in tournaments, you may want to pair him with Damian Lillard and hope that these two point guards put on a show.

FD — $8,800 — PG
DK — $8,700 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.7 | Last Five Games: 26.9
Min/Game — Season: 36.0 | Last Five Games: 38.7
FP/Game — Season: 35.6 | Last Five Games: 41.7

Portland Trail Blazers

Record: 21-26 — Home: 12-10 — Last 10: 6-4

The Blazers have really outperformed expectations this season and what do they get for it? An All-Star snub! And I mean a snub. First Damian Lillard was left off the qualifying list for the U.S.A. team and now he doesn’t get invited to the All-Star Game. Meanwhile, Anthony “made of toilet paper” Davis gets names as a reserve. I don’t go on rants often, but this is madness. Madness, I tell you. Anyway, the Blazers are projected to score 106.3 points tonight against the Hornets at home.

The Hornets have struggled on the road this season and that includes their play on the defensive end of the floor. On the season, they are ranked 17th or worse in fantasy points allowed to point guards, shooting guards, small forwards, and power forwards. With such a high team total, we should give the Blazers’ offense a sizable boost as a whole.

Elite Plays

Damian Lillard

There are a lot of reasons to target Lillard tonight. He has a chip on his shoulder after being left off of the All-Star team, he draws a favorable matchup against Kemba Walker and the Hornets, and he is playing at home in a friendly game environment. I have Russell Westbrook ranked as my top point guard option, but Lillard is right there in a points per dollar sense.

FD — $8,800 — PG
DK — $9,300 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.3 | Last Five Games: 26.7
Min/Game — Season: 36.1 | Last Five Games: 32.7
FP/Game — Season: 39.3 | Last Five Games: 31.8

Secondary Plays

C.J. McCollum

McCollum is a little too expensive to be considered an elite play. Given his recent level of production, he should be priced in the high $6,000 range. He does draw a nice matchup against the Hornets at home, but is more of a secondary play tonight.

FD — $7,600 — SG
DK — $7,400 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.0 | Last Five Games: 25.7
Min/Game — Season: 35.1 | Last Five Games: 32.2
FP/Game — Season: 32.1 | Last Five Games: 29.1

Los Angeles Lakers at Los Angeles Clippers – 10:30 PM

Los Angeles Lakers Los Angeles Clippers
lalakersnba Vegas Total 205.5 laclippersnba Vegas Total 205.5
Vegas Sprd 14.0 Vegas Sprd -14.0
Team Proj. 95.8 Team Proj. 109.8
Team Pace 98.40 Team Pace 98.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jordan Clarkson Louis Williams Kobe Bryant Julius Randle Roy Hibbert Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Paul Pierce Luc Richard Mbah a Moute DeAndre Jordan
Opp. Season 5 12 15 6 24 Opp. Season 30 30 26 20 28
Last 3 Weeks 2 12 19 5 28 Last 3 Weeks 10 30 28 4 30

Los Angeles Lakers

Record: 9-39 — Road: 4-22 — Last 10: 1-9

The Lakers are coming off of a blowout loss against the Bulls last night. While they don’t have to travel, they will technically be playing on the road tonight against the Clippers. The Lakers are 14-point underdogs in this matchup, which is the highest spread on the board.

The Clippers have been mediocre defensively this season, ranking between 10th and 13th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Louis Williams missed last night’s game with an illness. He is listed as questionable for tonight. Kobe Bryant is not listed on the injury report, but could end up getting the night off in the second half of a back-to-back. Jordan Clarkson and D’Angelo Russell could both see some extra run tonight, but I’m not looking at either of them in tournaments.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Los Angeles Clippers

Record: 30-16 — Home: 15-7 — Last 10: 7-3

The Clippers have won seven of their last ten games and are now 30-16 on the season. While their off-court issues still remain, they are certainly over their on-court struggles that they had earlier this season. The Clippers are projected to score 109.8 points tonight, which is the second highest team total on the board and 5.8 points higher than their season average.

When it comes to the Lakers, it’s not about the matchup, it’s about whether they can keep the game close enough that the starters will see a full complement of minutes. The Clippers should put up a ton of points tonight, but it’s hard to project the starters’ minutes in the potential blowout.

Elite Plays

DeAndre Jordan

Jordan has grabbed 19 rebounds in back-to-back games. He has a decent chance of reaching that mark again tonight, as the Lakers are ranked 29th in rebounding differential this season. While I am concerned about a blowout here, Jordan could easily reach value in three quarters against this weak Lakers’ frontcourt.

FD — $7,900 — C
DK — $7,500 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.8 | Last Five Games: 13.6
Min/Game — Season: 33.4 | Last Five Games: 34.0
FP/Game — Season: 34.0 | Last Five Games: 33.0

Secondary Plays

Chris Paul

Paul may be my favorite tournament play on the board tonight. With Russell Westbrook, Damian Lillard, and Archie Goodwin all expected to have a high ownership level, Paul becomes a strong tournament play. The high spread will scare a lot of people off of him and better yet, he is facing a Lakers’ defense that is ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to point guards this season.

FD — $9,900 — PG
DK — $9,800 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.3 | Last Five Games: 27.0
Min/Game — Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 32.2
FP/Game — Season: 39.5 | Last Five Games: 43.3

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious