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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, January 9th - Page Two

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2016-01-09 20:29:50

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Miami at Utah – 09:00 PM

Miami Utah
miaminba Vegas Total utahnba Vegas Total
Vegas Sprd Vegas Sprd
Team Proj. Team Proj.
Team Pace 94.23 Team Pace 93.6
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Hassan Whiteside Proj Starter Raulzinho Neto Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Trey Lyles Jeff Withey
Opp. Season 11 5 6 4 5 Opp. Season 2 2 18 2 9
Opp. Last 7 1 28 7 2 18 Opp. Season 14 3 9 6 11

Miami

Record: 22-14 –Road: 7-6 — Last 10: 6-4

This is by far the least appealing game on the slate as two very plodding offenses face off with two quality defenses. The Vegas total is still TBD due to injuries on Utah’s side of the ball but this should be a very low scoring game.

Utah plays at a very slow pace and has been one of the best defenses in the NBA this year. They did show some slippage without Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors, but Rudy Gobert returned last game, while Derrick Favors could also potentially return to the lineup today.

The only two potential plays would look to be Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. Hassan Whiteside’s minutes have been very volatile and he’s unlikely to get any easy points on the interior. This could be a game where he racks up rebounds, assuming the minutes are there, but his upside at his price point doesn’t look to be there today.

Josh McRoberts (D)

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Chris Bosh

Bosh didn’t play well in Phoenix last night but has otherwise been great recently. He’s a secondary option at best in a tough matchup, but if Derrick Favors sits another game then the matchup against Trey Lyles and Trevor Booker isn’t as tough. He was productive in the earlier meeting between these teams with 25 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists.

FD — $8,000— PF
DK — $7,900- PF
Min/Game —Season: 33.6 | Last Five Games: 34.8
FP/Game — Season: 33.8

Dwyane Wade

Wade is down my list of options at SG, but Utah has struggled against SG recently and they could be without Rodney Hood and are already without Alec Burks. With Miami unlikely to get anything on the interior, they will be reliant on Wade from the outside.

FD — $7,300— SG
DK — $6,800- SG
Min/Game —Season: 30.1 | Last Five Games: 29.2
FP/Game — Season: 30.8

Utah

Record: 15-20 –Home: 10-8 — Last 10: 4-6

If you’re looking to fade a game this would be it as it is likely to be very low scoring and the first meeting resulted in a 92-91 Miami win.

Miami is an elite defense and Utah is one of the worst offenses in the NBA so this is obviously a bad matchup. Utah got Rudy Gobert back last game as played 15 minutes off the bench. It’s unclear if he’ll start this one but he is expected to see a minutes boost so “(player-popup)Jeff Withey”:/players/jeff-withey-16977’s run looks to be over. Derrick Favors also could potentially return in this one and if he does then I’d likely avoid everyone on Utah. Favors did produce a monster stat line of 25 points, 12 rebounds, 2 assists and 10 combined blocks and steals against Miami earlier this year, but that was with Rudy Gobert out and when Favors was fully healthy.

Rudy Gobert (P)
Alec Burks (O)
Derrick Favors (Q)
Rodney Hood (Q)

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Gordon Hayward

SF is the one position that Miami has been sub-par against this season. I don’t like the spot for Hayward but if Derrick Favors is out then he should continue to shoulder a ton of offensive responsibility. Rodney Hood is also questionable, which would leave Utah very light on the wing, and potentially push him towards big minutes.

FD — $7,300— SF
DK — $7,200- SF
Min/Game —Season: 35.3 | Last Five Games: 35.6
FP/Game — Season: 29.9

Golden State at Sacramento – 10:00 PM

Golden State Sacramento
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 223 sacramentonba Vegas Total 223
Vegas Sprd -7.5 Vegas Sprd 7.5
Team Proj. 115.5 Team Proj. 108.0
Team Pace 101.44 Team Pace 102.08
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Andre Iguodala Draymond Green Andrew Bogut Proj Starter Rajon Rondo Ben McLemore Rudy Gay Quincy Acy DeMarcus Cousins
Opp. Season 24 28 22 28 25 Opp. Season 25 3 15 17 12
Opp. Last 7 18 18 3 18 14 Opp. Season 28 11 2 12 1

Golden State

This game is the exact opposite of the last game as it features two top five offenses in the NBA. The Warriors are expected to score a ton of points tonight so you’ll want some Warriors on your roster as the late game hammers.

The Kings play at a breakneck pace and are very poor defensively so Golden State should do whatever it wants offensively. These two teams have already played three times, and the Warriors have scored 120 and 122 points in the last two meetings. This game also has the benefit of being played in Sacramento so a blowout is less of a risk, although still possible given how good the Warriors are.

The primary three targets continue to be Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson. Andrew Bogut and Harrison Barnes are potential tournament options but their minutes are a problem right now.

Brandon Rush has played well over his last two games, and the matchup is ideal. Harrison Barnes is still hovering around 23 MPG and coming off the bench so if that remains the case then Rush is a potential punt option. However, the Warriors will likely start incorporating Barnes more and more into back into the game plan so I’m not sold that Rush’ minutes or starting position are secure.

Leandro Barbosa (D)
Festus Ezeli (P)

Elite Plays

Klay Thompson

Stephen Curry is a little banged up right now and it looks like the Warriors might try to keep him in that 29 to 32 minute range. With Curry ailing, Klay and Draymond have picked up more of the offensive slack and Klay is on a roll right now. His price is on the rise but he’s locked in right now and has topped 30 real points in four of his last five games. He set a record for points in a quarter against the Kings last season and should feast on their poor SG defense.

FD — $7,800— SG
DK — $8,000 SG
Min/Game —Season: 33.1 | Last Five Games: 37.8
FP/Game — Season: 30.1

Draymond Green

Draymond continues to pile up triple doubles on a nightly basis and draws an elite matchup against a Sacramento team that is 28th in DVP against PF. He should be in line for another big outing and has averaged a near triple double against the Kings this year (16 points, 9.3 rebounds and 7.7 assists).

FD — $9,700– PF
DK — $10,000 PF
Min/Game —Season: 34.9 | Last Five Games: 36.0
FP/Game — Season: 40

Secondary Plays

Stephen Curry

Given his current injury situation and elevated price tag, I find myself targeting Klay and Draymond more tonight in cash games. However, that could be a popular approach, which leaves Curry as an elite GPP option. The minutes are a concern but he’s someone that can averaged 1.5 to 2 fantasy points per minutes, especially against a bad defense like the Kings.

FD — $10,500– PG
DK — $10,500 PG
Min/Game —Season: 33.6 | Last THREE Games: 29.0
FP/Game — Season: 46.1

Sacramento

Record: 15-21 –Home: 10-9 — Last 10: 5-5

The Kings are playing better basketball recently and have played solid basketball at home. They’ll look to avoid the season sweep and are only 7.5 point underdogs.

The Warriors are one of the better defenses in the NBA but allow a solid amount of points due to their pace of play. The Kings team total of 108 points is very appealing and the usual suspects of Rajon Rondo and DeMarcus Cousins are the prime options. The one injury situation to monitor here is the status of Omri Casspi, who has missed the last few games with an injury, but did score 36 points against the Warriors in their last meeting. With Casspi out, Acy has been drawing the start but he’s not on the fantasy radar. He is reliant on easy dunks and put up a big game due to the Lakers’ terrible interior defense. He’ll draw an extremely tough matchup with Draymond Green.

If Omri Casspi suits up then he becomes a secondary option, but the Warriors’ defenders at SG, SF and PF are all very good so there are not ideal matchups for Casspi or Rudy Gay. Rudy Gay has seen a minutes bump with Casspi out so he gets a slight boost if Casspi is out, and Darren Collison and Marco Belinelli also get a slight uptick.

Omri Casspi (D)

Willie Cauley-Stein (P)

Elite Plays

DeMarcus Cousins

Boogie has finally started to flash his upside recently as he’s topped 50 FD points in three straight games. He missed the first two games against the Warriors this year, and was ejected early in the last game. Andrew Bogut is a quality defender but Boogie is matchup proof when he’s playing good basketball and Vegas likes the Kings to compete, which should mean a big game from Boogie.

FD — $10,500– C
DK — $10,200 PF
Min/Game —Season: 33.1 | Last Five Games: 36.0
FP/Game — Season: 44.4

Rajon Rondo

Rondo draws the top matchup for the Kings as Stephen Curry is not a great defender and the Warriors are 25th in DVP against PG. Rondo has been on a roll over his past three games and likes to get up for big matchups like this one. He’s struggled in two of the games against the Kings, but did produce a triple double in their first meeting, and will also have Boogie Cousins available.

FD — $8,300 – PG
DK — $8,400 PG
Min/Game —Season: 35.4 | Last Five Games: 37.0
FP/Game — Season: 37.4

Secondary Plays

Rudy Gay

FD — $7,200 – SF
DK — $6,900 SF
Min/Game —Season: 33.8 | Last Five Games: 36.8
FP/Game — Season: 30.3

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About the Author

a25smith
Andy Smith (a25smith)