NBA Grind Down: Monday, December 30th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Washington at Detroit
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Hilario-Gortat
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Stuckey-Smith-Monroe-Drummond
Washington
These two teams met the other night in Washington in what turned out to be a blowout win for the Wizards. I expect this game to be much closer this time around as the Pistons will be playing at home. The Pistons have not defended any position particularly well this season and even though they are ranked 5th against SG’s on the season, that was thanks to the defense of Caldwell-Pope who sees very limited minutes not that Billups and Stuckey are back.
The total for this game is set at 202 points with the Pistons favored by 4. Both of these teams are fairly fast-paced and both teams should come close to scoring 100 points. Nene Hilario is still on a minutes restriction, I would stay away from both him and Booker as neither one should top 25 minutes here.
- John Wall – Wall was on his way to a monster game the other night against the Pistons until the game got out of hand and he ended up sitting out the last 15 minutes of the game. He should have similar success tonight. Jennings is not a great defender and Wall should push for 40+ fantasy points.
- Marcin Gortat – This pick is based on two factors: first, the Pistons have not defended the Center position well this season. They are currently ranked 26th against Centers on the season. The second reason is that with Nene on a minutes restriction, Gortat should see around 35 minutes in a close game.
Detroit
Even though the Pistons got blown out by this same Wizards team a few nights ago, I fully expect them to bounce back in a big way tonight. They are small favorites in a game that is expected to be pretty high scoring. Josh Smith got benched the other night, but should be in for a good bounce back game here. That said, I still think his price is a little too high for cash games considering his inconsistent play.
The Wizards DvP rankings are very confusing if you compare the season long rankings with the last 15 day rankings. They have been consistently average against PG’s and Centers and have mixed rankings against the other 3 positions. I don’t mind the Brandon Jennings play, but I think he will be outshined by John Wall.
- Andre Drummond – I love the price for Drummond across the industry tonight. He has had a couple of down games which has really brought his price down to an affordable level. Even though Gortat is a solid defender, Drummond gets the majority of his fantasy points by attacking the glass and picking up putbacks right around the rim.
Chicago at Memphis
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Allen-Prince-Randolph-Koufos
Chicago
The Bulls travel to Memphis as 5 point underdogs. Both of these teams play at a very slow pace. The Bulls only average 93 possessions per 48 minutes and the Grizzlies only average 91 possessions. The Vegas line certainly takes this into the account as the total is only set at 180 points which is the lowest I have seen in a couple weeks. Expect this one to be a defensive battle.
It sounds like Jimmy Butler will play through his injury tonight and it sounds like Luol Deng will be a game-time decision. The availability of these two players really impacts the fantasy value of the rest of the team. As far as DvP rankings, the Grizzlies have struggled to defend two positions: SG and PF.
- Carlos Boozer – Boozer is cheap and has a high ceiling. The problem with Boozer is that he also has a very low floor and oftentimes gets benched down the stretch when Taj is playing well. That said, Boozer is in that same price range as Taj and is the better fantasy option.
Memphis
The Grizzlies are favored in this one, but it is expected to be by far the lowest scoring game of the night. The Bulls rank above average at defending every position except for SF. That said, you should stay far away from Tayshaun Prince. He is being severely outplayed by James Johnson who actually makes a nice value play on both DK and FD. Mike Conley says that he is dealing with a variety of small injuries and he feels like he is playing on dead legs. That’s not what you want to hear, especially when he is facing a good defense like the Bulls.
- Zach Randolph – Even though this game is expected to be played at a snail’s pace, that actually helps Z-Bo’s game. He is not a player that excels in the open floor. He should continue his strong play tonight against Boozer and Co. I’m going to predict an 18 and 13 game from Mr. Double-Double.
Dallas at Minnesota
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Pekovic
Dallas
The Mavs and Wolves game has the highest total of the night. The total is set at 213 points and the Wolves are only favored by 4 points. This looks like a great game to target for DFS. The Mavs have a revolving door at Center right now and the trio of Blair, Dalembert, and Wright should be avoided until the minutes picture becomes clearer.
The Wolves are decent at defending SF’s and Centers (thanks to the defense of Brewer and Pek), but really struggle to defend the other 3 positions. The Wolves rank in the bottom 8 in the league against both PG’s and SG’s this season. Other than the two plays below, I do think Shawn Marion makes a nice punt option at the SF position.
- Monta Ellis – Monta is always a tough pick for me because his fantasy point games range from 20-50 points. I always like him as a GPP player, but I think he makes sense in cash games as well. The Wolves are ranked 26th against the SG position this season and Monta should have no problem creating shots against Kevin Martin.
- Dirk Nowtizki – Dirk has scored over 30 FP’s in each of his last 6 games and should be able to top that mark again tonight. While Love snatches up every rebound in site, his defense isn’t anything great. Dirk should get plenty of open looks from the perimeter.
Minnesota
The Wolves have a very solid matchup tonight. Both of these teams play at an above average pace and both teams are expected to score in the hundreds tonight. With the Wolves, it’s usually the same cast of characters that we talk about and tonight isn’t any different. There are four possible fantasy options here: Kevin Love, Ricky Rubio, Nikola Pekovic, and Kevin Martin.
The Mavericks have defended PF’s well this season, but we have seen Kevin Love dominate in bad matchups numerous times already this season. Treat Love as the top overall fantasy option. Nikola Pekovic is also an interesting play, he will have a major size advantage over Blair.
- Ricky Rubio – I always wish that Rubio would be a little more aggressive on the offensive end, but often times Rubio can cover his value from assists, rebounds, and steals alone. He has played great in back to back games and should pad the stat sheet again tonight in an uptempo game.
- Kevin Martin – Martin is flying under the radar tonight and he has a fantastic matchup against the much smaller Monta Ellis. Neither of these two are known for their defense and I think that they will each score on each other at will.
Portland at New Orleans
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Gordon-Aminu-Anderson-Davis
Portland
The Blazers are 2 point favorites over the Pelicans in the game that has the second highest total of the night. The Blazers continue to play great and will want to bounce back with a win after a heartbreaking loss against the Heat the other night. The Pelicans have struggled to defend every position this season except for SF which is thanks to the great defense of Aminu.
The other 4 positions are all in play tonight. Wesley Matthews is always a tough play because you can usually find options that you like better in that price range, but I certainly don’t hate the pick. Robin Lopez has been playing well, but I would be scared of him getting into foul trouble against Davis. Damian Lillard is my second favorite play here. Use him on sites where his price is reasonable.
- LaMarcus Aldridge – Aldridge’s price has finally come down a bit. He was almost as expensive as Love there for a little while. Aldridge has a great matchup against Ryan Anderson tonight who does not have the best low-post defense. You could argue that the matchup against Anderson may hurt his rebounding totals, but I think he more than makes up for that on the offensive end.
New Orleans
The Pelicans should play well in what is expected to be a fast-paced, high scoring game against the Blazers. Eric Gordon is listed as a game-time decision for this game, but they are expecting him to sit out again. If he does, that again gives a boost to Tyreke Evans and Jrue Holiday. Evans is playing at an All-Star level over the past 5 games and should continue to be used on sites that haven’t adjusted his price.
The Blazers DvP rankings are a bit skewed because the Blazers have played at a much quicker pace over the past month or so. I think all of the Pelicans are in play here except for Ryan Anderson, I could see him getting into foul trouble early.
- Anthony Davis – Davis should have a monster game tonight. He is coming off of a 40+ FP performance the other night and should be able to top that mark again tonight. The Blazers are ranked 24th against the Center position on the season and Davis is the only player in the league that averages close to double-digit FP’s from blocks and steals alone.
- Jrue Holiday – Jrue is often the forgotten PG in daily fantasy. He’s right in that same price range as Lawson and Kyrie and everyone seems to always take someone instead of him. That’s just fine by me. I love the Holiday play tonight against the Blazers. He should push the tempo and have a big game against Lillard who is not known for his defense.
Miami at Denver
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Battier-Bosh
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Hickson
Miami
There are expected to be a lot of close games tonight. The Heat are 2 point favorites over the Nuggets in what is expected to be a high scoring game. The real question here is whether or not LeBron James will play tonight. He was listed as doubtful earlier in the morning, but now he is listed as a game-time decision. We likely won’t find out about his status until after the first game tips off so if you are playing on a site that locks lineups, you may just want to avoid the Heat completely tonight.
However, if we get word that LeBron will sit, you should give a major boost to Dwyane Wade, Mario Chalmers, and Chris Bosh. All three would be counted on to pick it up offensively. Keep checking the injury news and adjust your lineups accordingly.
Denver
The Nuggets are in a pretty good position tonight even though the DvP rankings suggest otherwise. Kenneth Faried played in the Nuggets game the other night, but he only played 13 minutes and I doubt he will see more than 20 minutes tonight. For that reason, you can keep using both Timofey Mozgov and J.J. Hickson. Both should see 25+ minutes against an under-sized Heat frontcourt. Ty Lawson would typically be on my radar, but the Heat are ranked 1st overall against the PG position this season and that’s more than enough to scare me off of Lawson.
- Wilson Chandler – Chandler has topped 25 fantasy points in 7 of his last 9 games which is really impressive. The funny part is that no one seems to be noticing. He is never a highly owned player even with his cheap price tag. I like Chandler tonight whether LeBron plays tonight or not, but you have to give him a boost if LeBron sits out.