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NBA Grind Down: Monday, January 9th

by Chirag Hira (INSPYR) Last Updated 2017-01-10 02:26:39

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

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New Orleans Pelicans at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET

New Orleans Pelicans New York Knicks
neworleansnba Vegas Total 215.5 newyorknba Vegas Total 215.5
Vegas Spread 4.0 Vegas Spread -4.0
Team Total 105.8 Team Total 109.8
Pace +/- 1.4 Pace +/- 1.2
Proj. Starter Jrue Holiday Buddy Hield Solomon Hill Dante Cunningham Anthony Davis Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Courtney Lee Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Joakim Noah
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 9 28 13 13 29 DvP 28 12 20 27 18
DRPM -1.87 -0.30 -1.74 1.50 1.72 DRPM 0.55 -2.52 0.59 0.87 2.75

New Orleans Pelicans

Happy Monday, Grinders! I’m filling in for the great Notorious today. I’m sure you guys have seen on Twitter that Baby Noto is sick and has caused him to be in the hospital all weekend. Hope the little man gets better soon!

We have a short and sweet slate for today, so let’s get right into it. The Pelicans travel to New York after losing in Boston on Saturday. As expected, Anthony Davis took his game up a level against the inferior defense of the Celtics. Joakim Noah’s DPRM lists him as an elite defender, but the DvP works against him. Going back to last week, when the Knicks were worked by Greg Monroe, I’ll have to go with this is an another good spot for Anthony Davis. Even if they move Kristaps Porzingis to C, he should still be able to return salary-based expectations. His salary has spiked after the good game in Boston, but with only three games on the slate, you’ll likely need his high raw points total. Due to the lack of elite value options, Davis is not as mandatory as Russell Westbrook.

Jrue Holiday has been a little slump over the past two games and it’s caused his salary to dip back under $7k. He’s could be overlooked with people trying to save and going for as many high-priced studs as possible. He makes sense as a high-floor PG2 on FanDuel but not as mandatory on DraftKings. Still, from a value projection, Rubio and Williams grade out as better values at the position. Tyreke Evans played about 20 minutes on Saturday and had 28.8 FanDuel points against the Knicks last month in 18 minutes. With the slate lacking a ton of value, Evans makes sense at $3.9k on DraftKings. He’s still $5k on FanDuel, making him a higher risk option.

Since we need more value plays for this slate, I’d have to look at Donatas Motiejunas and his $3k salary on DraftKings. Motiejunas played 20 minutes in his Pelicans’ debut and scored 25.8 DK Points. Even if he does not score that many, he seems like a high-floor option that should see 20+ minutes again tonight. Motiejunas is not the min salary on FanDuel but is the best option under $4k. He makes Terrence Jones unplayable as well. Buddy Hield was hot before the Boston game, but he’s over $4k on both sites. Since the Pelicans have the second-highest implied total on the slate, we should look at multiple options from this team, but keep in mind that Tyreke Evans return has messed with the rotation.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jrue Holiday $6,900 $6,600 0.97 31.2 2.2 30.4 -1.1 26.6% -2.3% 9 -1.87
Buddy Hield $4,100 $4,400 0.71 20.1 9.7 14.2 10.5 21.4% -1.5% 28 -0.30
Solomon Hill $3,500 $3,000 0.52 27.2 -5.4 14.3 -4.5 10.9% 1.2% 13 -1.74
Dante Cunningham $3,500 $3,500 0.54 24.9 3.1 13.3 -2.2 10.7% -2.0% 13 1.50
Anthony Davis $11,100 $11,100 1.39 37.3 1.2 51.8 -0.6 31.0% -0.1% 29 1.72
Tyreke Evans $5,000 $3,900 1.05 15.3 1.7 16.0 -0.4 28.8% -2.3% 28 N/A
Terrence Jones $4,400 $4,000 0.88 24.0 -2.6 21.1 -3.6 19.8% -1.7% 13 N/A

Elite Plays – Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans (DK)

Secondary Plays – Donatas Motiejunas

New York Knicks

The Knicks come back home after a two-game road trip and should put up the points. They have the top implied team total and face a team that is 24th in fantasy points allowed per game yet ranks 6th in defensive efficiency. Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis make sense as a stack together. Both players have exploitable matchups and Porzingis will defend Davis a healthy amount when he moves over to C and Anthony moves to PF. I’m slightly higher on Anthony due to the fact he has a 28.8% true usage rate compared to the 23.4% true usage Porzingis has. If you’re not spending up at PF with Davis, it might be wiser to use the value options at the position so you can spend up at other spots. Still, Porzingis is an elite option, I’m just worried that his ceiling is lowered with the Knicks “monitoring” his minutes.

Derrick Rose has been an absolute slump for the past four games and it seems his minutes are far from secure. Brandon Jennings played more minutes than him on Saturday, but that was likely due to the blowout in which Anthony also played less than his average. Rose is only a GPP option at this point and will likely go overlooked by most due to his recent slump. Due to the fact that the Knicks have the top implied total and he’s in a 28th ranked DvP matchup, he still deserves a look. Courtney Lee is a high-floor value play that rarely flashed his 30+ fantasy points ceiling. Mindaugas Kuzminskas has also been seeing consistent minutes over the last five games, he’s not a cash game play but is cheap enough that he does not have to do much to exceed salary-based expectations. Still, he’s not played over 20 minutes in those games and could easily ruin a lineup, so proceed with caution.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Derrick Rose $6,200 $5,800 0.89 31.9 -1.6 28.5 -5.3 28.0% -0.2% 28 0.55
Courtney Lee $4,100 $4,100 0.57 31.1 2.4 17.9 2.4 13.9% -1.5% 12 -2.52
Carmelo Anthony $7,900 $7,200 1.05 33.5 0.8 35.0 8.5 28.8% 0.4% 20 0.59
Kristaps Porzingis $7,800 $7,400 1.02 34.6 -2.6 35.2 -2.0 23.4% -1.6% 27 0.87
Joakim Noah $4,900 $4,900 0.93 22.9 1.2 21.2 0.8 14.3% 1.5% 18 2.75
Brandon Jennings $4,100 $3,800 0.81 23.5 -8.7 19.1 -8.2 23.1% 8.9% 28 N/A

Elite Plays – Carmelo Anthony, Kristaps Porzingis

Secondary Plays – Courtney Lee

Oklahoma City Thunder at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder Chicago Bulls
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 207.5 chicagonba Vegas Total 207.5
Vegas Spread 1.5 Vegas Spread -1.5
Team Total 103.0 Team Total 104.5
Pace +/- -1.7 Pace +/- 1.6
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Andre Roberson Domantas Sabonis Steven Adams Proj. Starter Michael Carter-Williams Dwyane Wade Jimmy Butler Taj Gibson Robin Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 11 18 15 15 14 DvP 22 5 10 14 5
DRPM -0.16 -0.03 1.12 1.37 0.10 DRPM -0.60 0.50 2.14 1.22 1.99

Oklahoma City Thunder

This game might not have the top implied total, but it definitely will have some of the top scorers. What is there left to say about Russell Westbrook? He’s an absolute monster and I don’t see how anyone can fade him in cash games on a three-game slate. He’s now $13k on DraftKings, which could make it tough to fit him in with a truly elite lineup around him, but you can try to be different at other spots instead of fading him. Over on FanDuel, his salary is still at a playable $12.4k. Victor Oladipo is a lock for 30 minutes and is still under $6k on FanDuel. He’s slightly over that on DraftKings but has the best DvP matchup on the team. Steven Adams has been crushing over the last four games, averaging 35.45 FanDuel points. His minutes are safe and he provides defensive stats to boost his fantasy value.

Enes Kanter has also been playing well for a couple weeks, but his minutes are not as secure as Adams. He’s still a viable GPP play and there’s a chance that Nikola Mirotic will have to guard him, putting him in a highly exploitable matchup. Andre Roberson minutes are pretty secure and if you’re looking for a high-floor cash game value option, he could be your man. He’s scored in double-digits in consecutive games but had not scored in double-figures in the eight games prior to that. I can’t trust him to continue his “high” scoring clip, but the minutes are there. Domantas Sabonis has been making the most of starting minutes over the last couple games, but he’s simply a GPP value play.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $12,400 $13,000 1.66 34.7 0.7 57.7 8.8 45.8% 2.8% 11 -0.16
Victor Oladipo $5,900 $6,300 0.77 34.3 2.2 26.5 2.2 21.2% 2.8% 18 -0.03
Andre Roberson $3,800 $3,900 0.56 31.1 3.7 17.5 1.9 10.7% 0.1% 15 1.12
Domantas Sabonis $3,500 $3,200 0.63 21.2 -1.6 13.4 0.6 14.3% -0.6% 15 1.37
Steven Adams $5,900 $6,000 0.88 29.7 2.5 26.0 7.7 16.4% -0.7% 14 0.10
Enes Kanter $5,300 $5,000 1.14 20.6 0.5 23.5 5.8 25.2% 1.6% 15 N/A

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Victor Oladipo, Steven Adams

Secondary Plays – Enes Kanter, Andre Roberson

Chicago Bulls

Update: Jimmy Butler is a game-time decision

Jimmy Buckets is back to being the alpha dog on this team. He’s pretty much a lock for 38 minutes, which is pretty spectacular. He’s a high-floor play that is slightly cheaper on DraftKings. The Bulls have the third-highest implied team total and if you’re not using the salary on Anthony Davis, Butler looks like the next best use of your salary. Dwyane Wade also played heavy minutes in an overtime victory against the Raptors and I’d give him a look in GPPs with Rajon Rondo completely out of the rotation. He handles the ball quite a bit and is not overpriced. I like Oladipo slightly more in this matchup, but Wade is not a bad play.

As I mentioned on Saturday, Nikola Mirotic has really been making the most of his minutes. He saw a bump due to the overtime game but looks locked in for 25-28 minutes. He’s still under $5k on both sites and should be able to make salary-based expectations. Doug McDermott also looks like a lock for 30 minutes and he’s even cheaper than Mirotic. He’s played well over his last five games, scoring in the double-digits while contributing in other categories to really boost his fantasy value. Michael Carter-Williams only played 16 minutes in that overtime game but should get around 20 minutes tonight against Russell Westbrook. He’s not safe for cash games at all but was producing at a decent clip before Saturday, making him viable for GPPs. Cristiano Felicio is another GPP option that could see 20 minutes tonight. He’s a min-priced GPP C punt on both sites.

Update: If Jimmy Butler is going to miss tonight’s game, Doug McDermott will start in his place. Since Butler is dealing with an illness and not an injury there is still a chance that he plays. With Butler iffy on a short slate, expect most users to not build around him. If we can get reduced ownership on a guy like Butler on a short slate, it’ll be worth a look if you’re making multiple lineups. He could go out there and have the “MJ flu game” or ruin your lineup because he’s too tired to carry the team. Lineups lock 30 minutes later than usual so we should expect to get an update with exactly one minute left until lineups lock.

Regardless of Butler’s status, one has to think that Dwyane Wade is ready to step up. Wade has a 41% usage rate with Butler and Rondo off the court this season. He was already listed as an elite play and the only thing I can’t do is move him to super elite. Since McDermott will start if Butler is out, he should also be considered an elite option. Over the last week, McDermott has seen an 11% usage rate increase with Butler and Rondo off the court. McDermott was likely going to play 30 minutes with Butler on the court and if Butler is off the court it would not surprise me to see him play 36 minutes.

Vegas has only moved the line 2.5 points since Butler’s downgrade came out. Making Michael Carter-Williams and Nikola Mirotic the other guys that are enticing in this scenario. If the line continues to move there could be a blowout on our hands, but it seems like this game should stay close. MCW is not an elite offensive threat but does see a 2.7% usage rate increase with Butler and Rondo off the court. We have a have a handful of PG options available on this slate, but I like Carter-Williams’ chances to exceed value here. We’ve been targeting PGs against Westbrook all season long and even Rubio was able to exceed value in the matchup. Rubio and MCW could build a brick house with how poorly they shoot but the fact remains that MCW is not a bad play. Yes, Rubio’s numbers were aided by 10 assists, but MCW has scored in double-figures in three out of his last seven games since returning from injury. I’m slightly concerned that his minutes are not secure, so MCW is simply a GPP play and you can find other options for cash. If you’re not feeling MCW you can take a look at Jerian Grant since he’s a lock for 20 minutes.

Nikola Mirotic sees a 3.5% usage rate increase and is a strong play on FanDuel since you need two PFs and PF is pretty bare today. Mirotic has been consistent lately and is splitting minutes with Taj Gibson pretty evenly. Gibson could go overlooked with everyone gravitating towards Mirotic. Another fact that is really concerning about Gibson is that he usage drops 11.5% with Rondo and Butler off. It’s truly a surprise that Mirotic is more of the cash game play and Gibson is the GPP play but the numbers have spoken. Mirotic has a 0.92 FP/Min and Gibson has a 0.79 FP/Min with Butler and Rondo off this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Michael Carter-Williams $4,800 $4,800 0.79 20.7 4.4 16.3 4.8 23.0% -0.1% 22 -0.60
Dwyane Wade $6,600 $6,200 1.02 30.5 2.6 31.2 -3.2 30.2% -3.9% 5 0.50
Jimmy Butler $9,600 $9,300 1.16 36.9 3.4 42.7 19.1 29.9% 5.5% 10 2.14
Taj Gibson $4,700 $4,600 0.84 27.8 -1.1 23.5 -2.3 19.1% -1.7% 14 1.22
Robin Lopez $4,200 $3,900 0.77 28.0 -3.7 21.6 -7.6 15.7% -3.0% 5 1.99
Nikola Mirotic $4,500 $4,700 0.85 23.5 5.4 20.0 5.3 19.0% -1.1% 14 N/A
Doug McDermott $4,000 $4,200 0.60 26.8 6.7 16.1 7.6 16.4% 2.1% 10 N/A
Jerian Grant $3,600 $3,100 0.68 14.3 8.7 9.8 9.5 17.2% -2.2% 22 N/A

Elite Plays – Dwyane Wade, Doug McDermott, Nikola Mirotic

Secondary Plays – Cristiano Felicio (GPP), Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson

Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET

Dallas Mavericks Minnesota Timberwolves
dallasnba Vegas Total 196.0 minnesotanba Vegas Total 196.0
Vegas Spread 5.0 Vegas Spread -5.0
Team Total 95.5 Team Total 100.5
Pace +/- -1.9 Pace +/- -5.2
Proj. Starter Deron Williams Wesley Matthews Dorian Finney-Smith Harrison Barnes Dirk Nowitzki Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 21 10 6 4 17 DvP 1 10 4 9 14
DRPM 1.12 -2.91 -2.36 2.88 -1.81 DRPM -0.97 0.12 0.26 -0.74 -0.19

Dallas Mavericks

We go from two uptempo games to a slow-paced game. Harrison Barnes moved back over to SF with Andrew Bogut returning to starting lineup in their previous game. I liked him better at PF and I’m not a fan of his salary with both Bogut and Nowitzki in the lineup. Deron Williams is also seeing a dip in his minutes with J.J. Barea back in the lineup. Barea is not playing heavy minutes, but it does allow for the Mavs to keep Williams fresh. D-Will is in a 21st ranked DvP matchup but is not a strong option with Westbrook on the slate. Still, since the position lacks depth with only three games on the slate, Williams does still deserve some consideration on FanDuel as a PG2. Devin Harris is also getting some guard minutes, which makes it slightly tougher to trust Williams.

Dirk Nowitzki played over 30 minutes for only the second time all season in the Mavericks previous game. With his minutes restriction seemingly off, he deserves a look in GPPs because most players will likely fade him due to his consistent underperforming ways. Gorgui Dieng will have a tough time chasing him on the perimeter. Since all the PF2 options are priced in this salary range for FanDuel, Nowitzki deserves a hard look. Dieng is the only one in this range that’ll likely play more minutes than him, but Dieng grades out as the cash game play while Nowitzki is the tournament play. Wesley Matthews is seeing over 30 minutes but has been in a slump with Nowitzki’s return to the lineup. The minutes are there and Zach LaVine isn’t exactly an elite defender. Matthew is worth a look in tournaments but has proven that even when he gets minutes he’s not a cash game play.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Deron Williams $5,900 $5,600 0.85 30.2 0.9 25.8 -1.0 27.7% 2.4% 21 1.12
Wesley Matthews $5,200 $4,900 0.68 35.6 0.0 24.1 -6.7 20.9% -3.5% 10 -2.91
Dorian Finney-Smith $3,500 $3,000 0.48 22.6 -1.0 11.0 -2.2 11.7% -2.4% 6 -2.36
Harrison Barnes $6,700 $6,400 0.84 36.0 -1.3 30.2 4.8 25.3% -1.6% 4 2.88
Dirk Nowitzki $5,200 $5,200 0.89 23.6 3.8 21.0 2.3 26.3% -4.8% 17 -1.81
Andrew Bogut $3,800 $3,200 0.79 23.8 -1.1 18.8 -6.9 12.0% -3.5% 17 N/A

Elite Plays – N/A

Secondary Plays – Dirk Nowitzki (GPP), Wesley Matthews (GPP), J.J. Barea (DK GPP)

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Mavericks aren’t an elite defensive team (22nd in defensive efficiency), but they play at such a slow pace that they don’t allow their opponent to score as much. Gorgui Dieng is one of my favorite plays as a second forward due to the fact that Dirk Nowitzki isn’t exactly an elite defender. Dieng is a lock for minutes and has averaged 28.64 DK points over his last 11 games. He randomly disappears, but there’s no one in this salary range that will play the minutes that he will. Andrew Wiggins should also be able to score against Harrison Barnes, but since he’s so scoring dependent and plays in a game that’ll provide him less possessions than usual, it’ll be tough to use him. Zach LaVine is not as scoring dependent, but Wesley Matthews is a strong defender. Karl-Anthony Towns should be able to grab another double-double, but his ceiling is pretty low considering the T-Wolves have the lowest implied total at home.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Ricky Rubio $5,600 $5,400 0.76 31.5 1.5 24.1 -3.3 17.2% -2.7% 1 -0.97
Zach LaVine $6,400 $6,700 0.78 37.6 1.0 29.3 2.2 23.4% 1.0% 10 0.12
Andrew Wiggins $6,400 $6,500 0.84 36.8 1.4 30.7 -1.2 27.9% 3.9% 4 0.26
Gorgui Dieng $5,500 $5,700 0.78 33.2 2.5 25.9 4.3 15.1% -0.3% 9 -0.74
Karl-Anthony Towns $9,200 $8,900 1.15 35.5 3.1 40.9 0.2 27.3% -1.6% 14 -0.19
Shabazz Muhammad $3,500 $3,100 0.65 17.7 0.5 11.4 0.9 18.7% -3.8% 4 N/A

Elite Plays – Gorgui Dieng

Secondary Plays – Karl-Anthony Towns

About the Author

INSPYR
Chirag Hira (INSPYR)

Chirag Hira, DFS alias “INSPYR”, has been playing fantasy basketball since 2001. He picked up DFS during the 2015 playoffs and has never looked back. In charge of DFS Alerts for the NBA, Chirag takes it as a daily challenge to break news before anyone else in the industry. He graduated with a degree in sports journalism and his career highlights include interviewing Kobe Bryant and Joe Torre. You can find Chirag on Twitter at C_Hira24.