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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, January 30 - Page Two

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2016-01-31 00:28:05

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Sacramento at Memphis – 08:00 PM

Sacramento Memphis
sacramentonba Vegas Total 203 memphisnba Vegas Total 203
Vegas Sprd 2.5 Vegas Sprd -2.5
Team Proj. 100.5 Team Proj. 103.0
Team Pace 101.97 Team Pace 95.3
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Rajon Rondo Ben McLemore Rudy Gay Willie Cauley-Stein DeMarcus Cousins Proj Starter Mike Conley Courtney Lee Tony Allen Zach Randolph Marc Gasol
Opp. Season 9 4 16 11 2 Opp. Season 25 29 18 29 25
Opp. Last 7 15 18 6 10 4 Opp. Last 7 20 26 12 23 13

Sacramento

Record: 20-26 — Road: 8-14 — Last 10: 5-5

NONE

The Kings have been an elite team to target for several weeks now, but this is a tough matchup. The Grizzlies aren’t great in terms of efficiency, but they do slow the pace of the game a great deal, and limit real life points as well as fantasy points. Rudy Gay is also expected to return, which hurts Omri Casspi and potentially Willie Cauley-Stein. Their team total of just 100 points, is one of the lowest we’ve seen for them in a while so tonight looks to be a night to tap the breaks on the Kings.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

DeMarcus Cousins

Over his entire career, he’s averaged just 15.5 PPG, 8.8 rebounds and 1.7 in 28 MPG in 15 games. That is over the course of his career and he’s a different player this season obviously. He did average 19 PPG and 10 rebounds last year in 27 MPG against the Grizzlies. At his current salary level that’s not the production we’re looking for and the Grizzlies are 2nd in DVP against centers. However, if this game stays close, he should play upwards of 40 minutes and has been a different player this year. I wouldn’t pay his tag in cash games, but as he showed against Utah, he can bust out for a huge game against anyone.

FD — $11,300— C
DK — $11,400— PF
Min/Game —Season: 34.2 | Last Five Games: 39.4
FP/Game — Season: 46.7

Rajon Rondo

I’d prefer to spend up to John Wall if I’m spending Rondo’s salary as the matchup is tough. His ownership should be way down for tournaments due to matchup so he’s a possible GPP play as he has been playing very well recently.

FD — $8,700— PG
DK — $8,500— PG
Min/Game —Season: 35.2 | Last Five Games: 36.4
FP/Game — Season: 37.4

Memphis

Record: 27-20 — Home: 18-7 — Last 10: 8-2

The Kings are one of my favorite teams to target as they play at a such a high pace and are poor defensively that there is tons of fantasy potential. That is evident in the Grizzlies’ team total at 103 points, which is very high for them. On paper this sets up great for the Grizzlies, but the problem is that outside of Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies have been tough to target for DFS.

The minutes for Zach Randolph and Mike Conley have been all over the map, while their wings of Tony Allen, Courtney Lee, Matt Barnes, and Jeff Green cut into each other’s minutes. Jeff Green has produced two quality outings in his past two games and does bring some upside so he and Allen would be my preferences out of the group. However, Green is very volatile and can not be trusted in cash games.

Elite Plays

Marc Gasol

The Kings have struggled across the board defensively this year, and while Boogie is a great offensive player, he’s not a great defender. Gasol has been the one Grizzlies to show solid upside, and while I do worry about potential foul trouble, the matchup is there tonight.

FD — $8,100— C
DK — $7,500— C
Min/Game —Season: 35.0 | Last Five Games: 35.2
FP/Game — Season: 33.3

Secondary Plays

Zach Randolph

Randolph has turned into a tournament only option as his minutes and production can not be depended on anymore. He does still put up a 30+ fantasy point outing two or three times every ten games and the matchup is great against Sacramento.

FD — $5,800— PF
DK — $5,800— PF
Min/Game —Season: 28.5 | Last Five Games: 25.8
FP/Game — Season: 25.7

Mike Conley

If Tyreke Evans plays then Mike Conley can be considered as a secondary option, but if Evans sits then Jrue Holiday is the clear option at a similar price point over Mike Conley to me. Conley typically lacks upside and his minutes are down recently so the only thing he really is going for him today is the matchup, which is elite and why he’s in play as a secondary option.

FD — $6,600— PG
DK — $6,200— PG
Min/Game —Season: 31.5 | Last Five Games: 28.2
FP/Game — Season: 28.9

San Antonio at Cleveland – 08:30 PM

San Antonio Cleveland
sanantonionba Vegas Total 205 clevelandnba Vegas Total 205
Vegas Sprd -2.5 Vegas Sprd 2.5
Team Proj. 104.0 Team Proj. 101.5
Team Pace 96.21 Team Pace 94.96
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge David West Proj Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson
Opp. Season 18 7 4 4 1 Opp. Season 4 1 1 3 4
Opp. Last 7 3 24 13 25 8 Opp. Last 7 23 12 4 30 19

San Antonio

Record: 39-7 — Road: 14-7 — Last 10: 9-1

In terms of pure basketball, this is the game of the night as two of the top teams in the NBA faceoff. However, it’s a little tricky from a DFS perspective as both of these teams play elite defense. The big injury news to monitor for the Spurs is that Tim Duncan is out so either David West or Kyle Anderson will draw the start. I would not fall for the Anderson trap if he starts but West is a potential value option if he starts.

Elite Plays

Kawhi Leonard (secondary on DK)

On DK, his price hasn’t dropped quite far enough so I wouldn’t consider him an elite option as the matchup with LeBron isn’t easy. His minutes and peripherals are way down so there is more of a gut pick, but I like the potential for a Kawhi bounce back tonight. This game should remain close and he should see a bunch more minutes trying to hold down LeBron. In the past, LeBron has brought out the best in Kawhi as he played well in the NBA finals a few years ago, and produced 20 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists in the earlier meeting between these teams.

FD — $7,300— PG
DK — $8,200— PG
Min/Game —Season: 32.5 | Last Five Games: 26.6
FP/Game — Season: 35.9

Secondary Plays

Tony Parker

I love the matchup on paper as Kyrie Irving is one of the weak links on the Cavs defense, and I think the Spurs really attack the pick and roll with Kevin Love. Parker excelled in the first meeting with 24 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists in 35 minutes, which easily pays off his salary. The problem is that his minutes are way down and there’s no telling what Popovich will do. I think there’s a solid chance he picks up more minutes tonight, but it’s a little risky for cash games.

FD — $5,600— PG
DK — $5,300— PG
Min/Game —Season: 26.8 | Last Five Games: 17.6
FP/Game — Season: 23.8

LaMarcus Aldridge

Aldridge is cheap around the industry, especially on FD, and the Spurs will be without Tim Duncan. The Cavs have been solid against PF, but Kevin Love is not a great individual defender. He’s averaged a fantasy point per minute this season so if you think he gets a minute bump in this competitive game then he could be in line to reach 5x value on FD.

FD — $6,900— PF
DK — $7,200— PF
Min/Game —Season: 29.5 | Last Five Games:
FP/Game — Season: 29.5

Cleveland

Record: 33-12 — Home: 18-3 — Last 10: 7-3

This Cavs are a tough team to target tonight as the Spurs are the NBA’s elite defense. Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green form an elite wing defense, and although the though of playing LeBron in a big game like tonight is enticing, I’ll be staying away as I don’t think the upside is there at his price point. The Spurs are 1st in DVP against SF and Kawhi held LeBron to under 40 fantasy points in the first meeting.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kyrie Irving

I hate targeting the Spurs but the Cavs’ 100 points have to come from somewhere. Tony Parker is the one weak defender on the Spurs, and while Kyrie hasn’t been great recently, he still can produce 30 real life points on any given night. He’s also seen a big price decrease around the industry leaving him with potential 6x upside.

FD — $6,600— PG
DK — $6,400— PG
Min/Game —Season: 27.2 | Last Five Games: 28.4
FP/Game — Season: 25.8

Kevin Love

Even with Tim Duncan out, the matchup is not ideal against LaMarcus Aldridge and David West. However, the Spurs have really struggled against PF over the past week, and Love has been a beneficiary in Tyronn Lue’s system. He’s getting more post touches and has responded with consecutive 40 fantasy point performances.

FD — $7,300— PF
DK — $7,100— PF
Min/Game —Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 33.4
FP/Game — Season: 33.3

Tristan Thompson

He doesn’t typically bring a lot of upside as he gets very little offensive usage. However, he’s still very cheap, particularly on FD, and is an elite rebounder. He also played very well in the first meeting between these teams with 18 points and 14 rebounds

FD — $4,500— PF
DK — $5,200- PF
Min/Game —Season: 27.5 | Last Five Games: 28.8
FP/Game — Season: 20.9

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About the Author

a25smith
Andy Smith (a25smith)